WOW - WOOLWORTHS GROUP LIMITED

[Meteor]

The stock price has been following a descending trend for the last 6 months but may exit the corridor next week.

 

If so, it could be a change of direction and the bullish move of last week -- driven by expectations of good results announcement on Friday -- could be the start of a longer upward trend.

 

The current closing price after announcement of good results is 11.27, which is exactly the value of the upper side of the corridor for Monday 24/11. There is another resistance at 11.33 created on 21/10.

 

If WOW does not cross the corridor and the resistance, it could go down back to the inferior Bollinger which is close to the major support at around $10.60-10.70 (values from 21/02 and 11/11).

 

 

My plan is to buy if the price reaches 11.34 in good volumes (volumes have not been exceptional so far). I would sell quickly if the price comes back inside the corridor. http://www.asxboard.com/html/emoticons/ph34r.gif

 

 

Do you have any comments before I make a big mistake? http://www.asxboard.com/html/emoticons/wink.gif

[stockpanther]

Meteor,

 

You know what i think in regards to woolworths http://www.asxboard.com/html/emoticons/biggrin.gif

 

It's not the sort of stock that's going to make you a fortune overnight, but at current levels it is solid medium-long term investment IMO.

 

BTW, using technical analysis have you found your timing is right more often then not? I've never been a big fan of it as you already know http://www.asxboard.com/html/emoticons/smile.gif, but if you can recommend a quality book i might have a look into it.

 

 

 

[Meteor]

Hey Stockpanther, nice to see you here as well http://www.asxboard.com/html/emoticons/wink.gif.

 

My buy order has just been triggered this morning at $11.35.

I set a stop loss order at $11.19.

 

To answer your question, I have really been using TA only recently,

and I have just been trading/investing on the ASX last week for the

first time (Although I have watched the market for 3 years).

 

I have more experience on the French market where I followed

TA advices from other people.

 

I am posting on this board so that my analysis can be commented

by other members, because I feel I am still a beginner and may not

see everything.

 

[stockpanther]

Meteor.

 

Cool.

I wonder if that bullish trend you predicted is going to occur, the stock certainly did well today in a relatively flat market.

 

You must be quietly please with your first day of ownership http://www.asxboard.com/html/emoticons/smile.gif

[Meteor]

Yes, I appreciate this first day, especially when my other purchase is not going so well. I bought KCN at 4.22, a bit late according to TA, the buy signal was at 4.01, when a major resistance was broken through. But it took me 2 days to bring the funds to my broker who did not accept credit for stocks outside ASX150. I still decided to go on with my purchase.

 

 

Anyway, back to Woolworths.

 

After today's session, the chart is looking even better!

 

Moving average over 50 days has been crossed, the corridor is well exited in volumes bigger than average, and the resistance at 11.33 is forgotten.

 

Next resistance is 11.62 (major support during winter).

Then 11.85 (Resistance in September).

 

Stop loss can be moved up to 11.32.

 

[stockpanther]

*nods at Meteor's technobabble* http://www.asxboard.com/html/emoticons/tongue.gif

 

In all seriousness though, based on my own little logic I can see potential for a bullish period for this stock coming up. Just lately I've been feeling that the market has really been overreacting to events (both positive and negative), and given that woolworths was oversold and after mr corbett's comments I can see a lot of investors moving back into woolworths, especially with xmas trading coming up (not my rationale, but alot of irrational people will use this as a reason to buy back in i can guarentee it).

 

Outside possibility of the stock even being overbought in the short term, my buying position on this one has closed and i'm just going to hold now and see how the market pans out over the next 6 months or so.

 

Looking at ION, or hoping HVN or QAN take a significant fall again (later 2 doubtful however).

 

Cheers,

Stockpanther

[Meteor]

I had a quick look at these 3 shares.

 

HVN and QAN trends are not looking good. I even don't see any major support soon. Better wait until they start bouncing back up.

 

ION has no clearly defined trend, and the volumes are decreasing. I suspect the market to be waiting for a major announcement. The price is currently evolving in the range $2.20 to $2.40.

 

You can place a buy order with limit $2.20, but be ready to sell back quickly if it goes under $2.17.

 

You can also wait for the price to break through $2.40 with volume increase. It's safer but the gain will be less.

 

I will follow ION as well, thanks for the tip http://www.asxboard.com/html/emoticons/wink.gif.

 

[stockpanther]

Thanks for that.

 

To be more specific i wouldn't touch HVN unless took a naty dive back to $2.50.

 

QAN..hmm i'm holding it at the moment, not feeling as if it will do heaps for me short term but i am willing to keep holding for a long term recovery.

 

ION... alot of posters from another board i read at own this stock, fundamentally it's awesome, but for some reason continues to trade on a very low P/E...even the company's management really aren't sure why. I'll PM you the link.

 

 

[Meteor]

I think we can start a new thread about ION, it looks promising.

I'll just wait a bit more for a buy signal.

 

[stockpanther]

WOW certainly had a nice little breakout, but it has retreated the last couple of days. Hopefully it can sustain the break out through and after the xmas period and push $12.