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henrietta

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https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-20/coro...corded/12163538

 

It's the lowest number of new infections since four were recorded in the 24 hours to 8:00pm on March 10 and brings the total number of cases in Australia's worst-hit coronavirus state to 2,963.

 

NSW chief medical officer Kerry Chant said almost 3,500 people were tested for COVID-19 yesterday

 

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only 4 case with 3500 tested.

C'mon, we will be there [to zero] soon.

 

 

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Covid toes

Doctors identified a new symptom of COVID-19, caused by the novel coronavirus, informally dubbed âââہ¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…âہ“COVID toes.âââہ¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’‚ The presence of purple or blue lesions on a patientâââہ¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¾Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¢s feet and toes puzzles infectious disease experts.

 

âââہ¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…âہ“Theyâââہ¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¾Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¢re typically painful to touch and could have a hot burning sensation,âââہ¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’‚ said Dr. Ebbing Lautenbach, chief of infectious disease at the University of Pennsylvania's School of Medicine.

 

What doctors said is most interesting about "COVID toes" is that they appear in COVID-19 patients who donâââہ¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¾Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¢t exhibit any other symptoms. Similarly, the loss of taste and smell was found to be associated with COVID-19 among otherwise asymptomatic patients by the American Academy of Otolaryngology ~ Head and Neck Surgery and ENT UK in late March.

 

âââہ¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…âہ“This is a manifestation that occurs early on in the disease, meaning you have this first, then you progress,âââہ¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’‚ Lautenbach said. âââہ¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…âہ“Sometimes this might be your first clue that they have COVID when they donâââہ¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¾Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¢t have any other symptoms.âââہ¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’‚ÂÂ

 

âââہ¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…âہ“COVID toesâââہ¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’‚ in some people can disappear in the course of a week to 10 days, but others progress to respiratory symptoms, he said.âââہ¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¹

 

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/...ple/2994930001/

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Don't dismiss the following arguments because they come from Catallaxy Files

 

The logic seems sound, the figures accurate, the conclusions rational.

 

 

What is becoming increasingly obvious is that shutting down travel to China on February 1 has probably done almost all of the heavy lifting in terms of limiting the virus in Australia, followed by the general ban on all overseas travel. Australia is an outlier in the Western world (being the only countries with semi-reliable data) for the small number of cases and fatalities experienced to date. Why is that? It is a question neither the government nor its expert modellers nor its health officials are prepared to explain presumably because they know the answer makes them look alarmist and foolish for having so egregiously overreacted in contravention of their own COVID National Plan call for proportionality.

 

Notwithstanding that Australia is an island and better able to control its borders than most, the most likely reason we have fared better is because Australia was on summer holiday when all hell broke loose in Wuhan. Why does this matter? Because the flow of Chinese travel was disproportionately out of Australia during this time (as it is every year). Students returned home, business travel was subdued owing to the Christmas break and the onset of the Australian summer holiday period, and because this period also coincides with Chinese New Year celebrations (which this year started on January 25) during which the majority of Chinese plan to remain in China and hence were not planning to travel to Australia until February. The travel ban which commenced on 1 February prevented almost 200,000 Chinese entering Australia in February.

 

This explains why the majority of Australian cases are not linked to China but traced to travel in the United States, Europe and on cruise ships (noting that almost two thirds of infections were acquired overseas). And because travel bans (and self isolation of inbound travellers) followed next Australia was able to largely stop the virus at the border. This is more or less reflected in the bell curve of new cases. There are zero cases in February consistent with the Chinese travel ban. New cases start trickling in over the first three weeks of March as Australians returned from ski holidays in Colorado and Europe as well as from cruise ships. Because these destinations flew under the radar by our âââہ¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…âہ“expertsâââہ¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’‚ there is a big jump in new cases between March 22 and April 2. The government introduces a total travel ban on March 19 and we see a steep fall in new cases starting on April 3 and continuing through to today, consistent with an incubation period of two to three weeks (as is generally agreed by experts).

 

In short, Australia was arguably spared because we are an island, our summer holiday period meant reduced business and student travel, the travel ban from China was just in time (i.e. prevented 200k arrivals) and although a tad slow on Europe and US travel bans (and notwithstanding the Ruby Princess fiasco) shutting down the borders worked. Incremental gains were achieved by social distancing measures and public awareness of the importance of good hygiene at relatively low cost. However, the draconian shutting down of the rest of economy has arguably had very little if any meaningful impact but has come at a massively disproportionate cost.

 

The absurdities of some of the reaction from governments continue.

Was talking to my Brother in law yesterday who lives in one of the Twin cities on the Border of Victoria and New South Wales.

His daughter works as the accountant(bursar?) at a school across the border.

The Police stopped her and demanded that she show some form of proof that she had a legitimate reason for crossing the Murray into another state.

The pile of school papers on the seat beside her was not enough,

Fortunately she was able to show that one of the 8 million emails she had from the headmaster on her laptop had scheduled a meeting of all non teaching staff for that day.

 

Mick

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Yes Mick , but ....

 

We actually won't know what the real health effects of the distancing, workplace bans have been. We do know that the cruise ship fiasco and the wilfully dumb US skiing party did have a massive effect on our COVID numbers.

Sweden is managing, but there have been nearly 2000 deaths ....... and their population is 10m. I'm not sure how we'd feel if we'd had 5000 deaths by now. That's a lot of oldies, grandparents who look after grandkids.

 

Hopefully we can get on top of this thing quite quickly, keep the international travel bans going, and open up the employment and productivity space soon.

 

I think we have done better than most, and there'll always be hindsighters who would have done things differently and better.

 

 

Cheers

J

 

 

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I think the swedes see that the deaths would have occurred anyway but later on.

In a severe shutdown there is little population immunity developed, and with necessary relaxation the risk of severe outbreaks and more deaths.

They are trying to "inoculate" their population so they are more resistant for the longer term..

A vaccine is unlikely for 18 months or more , if at all.

 

They also rely on their population taking sensible precautions.

and they are not restriction free having undertaken some shut-down actions.

 

I doubt that their internal economy has been damaged as much as in other countries.

 

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