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BREXIT?


mullokintyre

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As I am heading off to UK this year, I was wondering what peoples views are on the effect of a potential UK exit from Euroland might have on the UK Pound.

The Yes to exit case would appear to be strengthening, so it is becoming a real possibility.

I discount the polotical syaements about countries not wanting to deal with the UK, but there must be some potential difficulties.

Mick

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Don't have any firm thoughts on pound, but it is having an effect on global share-market according to all the reports.

 

My own personal theory is:

- Markets hate uncertainty

- Regardless of outcome of vote, markets will adapt & recover. (as uncertainty will be removed )

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I do not have any thoughts about what is going to happen to the British pound immediately after the Brexit, but I do know Britain would be absolutely insane to stay in the EU.

The EU is an experiment that has failed as has the UN. Time to leave both.

 

God help them if they vote to stay!!

 

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Mick

 

Here's the Beeb talking about the effect of Brexit.

 

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-36515816

 

I have also seen it pointed out that even if the "leave" side wins the referendum that does not mean that the UK will leave the EU. The referendum is an advice not a direction and any decision would have to be made by the Parliament. It could well be that were the leave option to get up the EU and the UK government could make concessions that could be used as justification for Parliament not to vote to leave or at least to hold a second referendum on the matter. Seeing how long it is taking Greece to move towards what everyone claimed was an inevitable default I can see this Brexit issue dragging on for years.

 

And finally, my own view is that for someone of my level of ignorance currencies are a random walk. As such I would either just presume that the rates in the future are just as likely to be what they are today and / or I would do some basic hedging by regularly buying some pommy pounds. The hedging would likely mean that I would not make any money but nor should I lose too much. I know there are other readers of ss who are much more sophisticated in currency trading than I am but I have to play with the hand I've been dealt.

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and AEP

 

Brexit vote is about the supremacy of Parliament and nothing else: Why I am voting to leave the EU

by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard

With sadness and tortured by doubts, I will cast my vote as an ordinary citizen for withdrawal from the European Union.

 

Let there be no illusion about the trauma of Brexit. Anybody who claims that Britain can lightly disengage after 43 years enmeshed in EU affairs is a charlatan or a dreamer, or has little contact with the realities of global finance and geopolitics.

 

Stripped of distractions, it comes down to an elemental choice: whether to restore the full self-government of this nation, or to continue living under a higher supranational regime, ruled by a European Council that we do not elect in any meaningful sense, and that the British people can never remove, even when it persists in error.

 

For some of us ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã‚¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬Ãƒâ€Â¦ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã¢â‚¬Å“ and we do not take our cue from the Leave campaign ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã‚¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬Ãƒâ€Â¦ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã¢â‚¬Å“ it has nothing to do with payments into the EU budget. Whatever the sum, it is economically trivial, worth unfettered access to a giant market.

 

We are deciding whether to be guided by a Commission with quasi-executive powers that operates more like the priesthood of the 13th Century papacy than a modern civil service; and whether to submit to a European Court of Justice (ECJ) that claims sweeping supremacy, with no right of appeal.

 

It is whether you think the nation states of Europe are the only authentic fora of democracy, be it in this country, Sweden, the Netherlands, or France ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã‚¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬Ãƒâ€Â¦ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã¢â‚¬Å“ where Nicholas Sarkozy has launched his presidential bid with an invocation of King Clovis and 1,500 years of Frankish unity.....

 

..... This is my decision. It may go against my own interest, since I hope to live out part of my remaining years in France ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã‚¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬Ãƒâ€Â¦ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã¢â‚¬Å“ though countless Britons lived there contentedly in 19th Century before we ever had such a thing as the European Union, and no doubt will continue to do so long after it is gone.

 

I urge nobody to follow my example. It ill behoves anyone over 50 to exhort an outcome too vehemently. Let the youth decide. It is they who must live with the consequences.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/0...nd-nothing-els/
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Polling stations won't close until 10pm UK time on Thursday night (7am Sydney time)

- We may not get a clear indication as to the outcome until 6-7am the next day in the UK (around 3-4pm Friday in Sydney).

- If it's a very close vote it could take longer

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http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...ich-voters-poor

 

Today, there are speculative forces in the markets much bigger and more powerful,ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚ Soros said. ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Â¦ÃƒƒÂ¢Ãƒ¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…âہ“And they will be eager to exploit any miscalculations by the British government or British voter

===============

 

thought he is 85 years old or more, and got no teeth left. man!! he is still the big croco. the grand master of scaremongering. tip my hat off to him. even i don't share much of his view these days. still fan of this old man. :o

 

 

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It's all a con job, and the outcome won't really change Britain's relationship with the Continent, says Brett Arends:

 

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-dirty...ory_top_stories

 

Wouldn't surprise me at all if the hype and hoopla over recent weeks was just a convenient excuse for the faceless power brokers of Wall Street to create market volatility. And no prize for guessing who ends up winning the most during periods of high volatility...

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