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nipper

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Bloody hell.

 

For me, Donald Trump's win is as much a shock as the Bulldogs winning the AFL GF, up there with the Sharks winning the NRL grand final but nowhere near the Irish beating the All Blacks in Chicago (sure the odds were always there that sooner or later the All Blacks would lose a match to Ireland but what were the chances of that happening in Chicago?). In other words while it all was engrossing I really don't think US elections impact me too much. I get it that the yanks are looking for change but it is patently obvious that Donald Trump is a snake oil salesman. However my guess that the US system of checks and balances will temper (?) any bat-shit crazy stunts from the incoming POTUS.

 

Some time ago Barry Ritholtz had a list of major shocks and the stock exchange response to those shocks: the thing is markets tend to take non-market related black swan events in their stride. Going on that you'd think that the markets will quickly regain their composure. I'd likely do well personally if the markets did crash but I appreciate that outcome would cause a lot of pain around the world.

 

Geopolitics may be interesting I suppose. It is all well and good for Trump to make grand promises about how the US should behave but it should be remembered that in 2008 Barry Obama won the Nobel Peace Prize on his intention to get out of all the wars, and now 8 years later they are not only still in Iraq and Afghanistan but are now in Syria and Yemen as well.

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certainly the 'entitlement class' are squawking loud and clear. Being blindsided tends to do that.

 

Mr Trump is not an attractive character, too true. The only measure I have was that Reagan was lampooned and vilified in equal doses, and, yet, IMO he was surprisingly effective. Volker reforms, ended cold war, oversaw peace and prosperity. Here's hoping.

 

 

 

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nip

 

Not quite a good comparison as Ronald Reagan had been governor of the fifth largest economy in the world, ie California, for 8 years before he got the nuclear code. Trump is a salesman and a reality tv star, pretty much full stop. True, people ridiculed Reagan for being a movie star, and they also denigrated Jimmy Carter as being nothing but a peanut farmer but both had lots of practical experience (Carter had been a state senator and governor) before taking up the job and both in hindsight had their moments of success. Trump is a 70 year old bloke who is starting this sort of work from scratch. My bet is that Mike Pence will take over well before the 4 years is up.

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thanks triage. No, it wasn't 'deep analysis'. My filter is the reaction/ the denigration, not the skill set.

 

An all against the backdrop of an assertive Russia, and China, a parlous bunch of settings (debt, debt). One casualty will probably be the (unaffordable) ObamaCare program.

 

 

 

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seeing this is an Australian share website, here is an earlier post, relevant to our companies. Infrastructure got a big nod in Trump's speech. Defence will be, well, defence, not spurious backing of nebulous concepts from/ for opportunist poseurs.

Trump's priorities are to boost the US air force to 1200 aircraft and to expand the ebbing navy's complement to 350 vessels. He's also cited an emphasis on cyber warfare.

 

Stocks worthy of mention are Quickstep Holdings (QHL), which builds carbon composite components for the US-led Joint Strike Fighter (JSF) program at its Bankstown base.

 

Based at its Alabama shipyard, Austal (ASB) is prime contractor for the $US4bn Littoral Combat Ship program (initially eleven vessels) and the two-ship, $US400m Expeditionary Fast Transport Vessel program.

 

Alexium International (AJX) is a preferred US Department of Defence partner for its flame-resistant technology that doesn't contain bromides, which are being banned in the US and elsewhere.

 

On the cyber side, drones will be integral to future battles. Department 13 (D13) recently presented its Mesmer drone surveillance system to Black Dart, the US military's leading counter-drone exercise.

 

Drone distributor Xtek (XTE) has its fingers in a number of hi-tech pies and hopes to supply its lightweight carbon composite inserts to the US military.

 

In a similar vein, Electro Optic Systems (EOS) supplies hi-tech gun turrets to the US. But arguably its greater potential lies with its technology to track space debris, a program that has attracted the support of military contractor Lockheed Martin.

 

Trump is big on infrastructure ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã‚¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚ so long as the projects are built by Americans.

 

Eden Energy (EDE) will be heartened that Trump mentions the country's 60,000 "structurally deficient" bridges. Eden's carbon-based concrete strengthening additive is being trialled by the Georgia Department of Transportation, with commercial interest from several other bodies.

 

Donald also promises the new assets will be built by "American steel made by American workers". We trust that includes BlueScope's US operations, based on the acquired Butler Manufacturing.

I was just reading about Peter Thiel, an IT/ data analystics CEO who broke ranks and backed Trump, early on.

Palantir's software is used to sift through massive amounts of data to help the military identify enemies' whereabouts, potential attacks and other battlefield information. On Friday, a spokesman for Thiel explained that the technology allows the military to have a more targeted response to threats, which could render unnecessary the wide-scale conflicts that Thiel sharply criticised.

 

"If we can pinpoint real security threats, we can defend ourselves without resorting to the crude tactic of invading other countries," Thiel said in a statement sent to The Washington Post. Palantir declined to comment through a representative. On October 31, Thiel told reporters in Washington that "while households struggle to keep up with the challenges of everyday life, the government is wasting trillions of dollars of taxpayer money on faraway wars. Right now we're fighting five of them, in Iraq, Syria, Libya, Yemen and Somalia."

and that would be the tenor, I suspect, from a cautious (and cash strapped) Admin

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There is no equal time when it comes to satire. He really is best served in saying nothing.

 

If one makes silly promises and statements, has ridiculous hair and seems to be permanently sun burnt, expect incoming.

 

He's the greatest gift to comedians and satirists in many years. It's up to him and his acts as president to quell the satire. If he proves worthy it will change.

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