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Not buying at the moment.


Been busy buying a new dino the dinosaur briefcase to take to the meeting with Bryce. :biggrin:


Don't worry about anything Bryce, JT me and Dino got your back. :biggrin:


PS Seriously JT waited a fair while now, a few more months to see what happens won't hurt.


I'm not accepting $1.40.


I'd rather wait then replace the Board with people of the ilk of cepo Board.


And then watch them build a business that the market will take seriously.


OH Optimism , IMO Safety results of the last trial were very encouraging.


Remembering the results they got from the mice trials.


I'm expecting some good results when dosages are optimised for RA. IMO.


All the best.

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<h1 class="section-heading">Arana sees no point in experts sniffing around</h1> CITY BEAT: Rebecca Urban | March 26, 2009


Article from: The Australian PERHAPS the board of Arana Therapeutics, one of the few Australian biotechs with a healthy balance sheet, is concerned that a takeover bid that lobbed from a US group might not pass the "fair and reasonable" test.


How else should investors interpret the company's decision not to commission an independent expert to run a fine-toothed comb over the $318 million cash offer?


Especially given that the deal has so angered some investors, who've accused the Arana board of selling up cheaply.


Cephalon International's $1.40-a-share offer might be valued at a 70 per cent premium to Arana's share price during the lead-up to the takeover announcement, but it comes in only slightly above its cash balance ($175 million) and expected royalty streams over the next two years ($77 million).


What about the "deep pipeline" of research and development projects, which was the phrase used by Arana at a recent JPMorgan conference?


"We thought long and hard about it," said Arana chairman Robin Beaumont, who's had no problem commissioning independent experts' reports in the past, including when he was a director of EvoGenix, which Arana itself acquired in 2007.


Beaumont reasoned that any expert would have had to consider the vagaries of the share market (not much joy to be found there) as well as assess the prospects for successful development of the company's projects, including its phase II psoriasis treatment (anyone's guess, apparently).


"We were concerned that that could confuse the issue, with the expert's opinion coming in below or way above the bid," he said.


Funny, that's the sort of free rein that independent experts have supposedly come to expect.


Whatever the outcome, Beaumont -- who, for the record, is not too pleased about the offer himself -- said he didn't think an outside valuation "had the potential to get the bidder to pay more".


However, he wasn't prepared to wait to find out. Within a day of the bid emerging last month, Arana's independent directors had indicated that, in the absence of a superior proposal, they would accept the bid. The on-market takeover opened yesterday and will run until May 1.



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Well I must confess that I have been selling for over a year now. Could be a bit longer than that but anyway it was like, if I needed to buy something IÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢d just go to the peptech bank and make a withdrawl. And every time, a little later, the sp would go lower and IÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢d say to myself why didnÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢t I sell the lot. Christ could have bought em back in the 60/70 cent range. AGAIN.


But this time its permanent. Gone forever. Unless of course the bid fails and if that happens well 20 cents may happen. Hows that for a Jolly Roger opinion.



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transfer and acceptance form from Cephalon International Holdings

arrived in the mail box today...


Decision time


Now what do I do :devilsmiley:


Wipe my backside with it :lol:


fysb..I also sold around the 80% mark of my holdings..the loss, I dare not look

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luckily..somehow, if i put all my buy and sells together i would be a long way in profit over them years. but that was because the first time round i was in at 50 cents. i was reluctant to let them go but was finally out at 1.75 coming down. then i had another go at them...badly. lol.

yes and thank christ for oavde. god if we didn't learn something from that guy then we really are stupid. i remember him saying one time, just after the investment in domantis happened, that if he was to invest (park money somewhere) at all it would be with domantis and not peptech, but domantis was private so that ruled that out.

i have money parked in other companies but not a lot. it will stay there for now.

but have been for some time someone who does not buy and hold. a week maybe two thats it.

if you can get away with a day trade..terrific.


anyway i got my form here adder but there may be none left to fill it in, by the time its due to be posted.


hope i'm not boring you all.

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Got to disagree with you JT on this,


well 20 cents may happen


If the bid were to fail they don't get to take the cash with them JT.


But I'm glad you've done ok by the sounds of it.


Me, my average price is $1.31 so showing small paper profit.


But nowhere near enough to justify the wait.


All the best.

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The Australian Article


here is the full link to the rebecca Urban piece. I am not a holder at the moment but have been several times in the past and have attended an AGM or two before as well. Like many of you I totally cannot believe how stupid (or something much worse) the directors are to be recommending acceptance of the offer. The company has plenty of money and would ride out the credit crunch no problem and still get their lead products through and likely into phase 3. There is something very dodgy going on or something very incompetent, either way I really hope Bryce and the other have success rolling the offer and preferably the board too. In my recent dealings with other stocks I have learned that there is no end to what motivated shareholders can achieve when they get together and act in a coordinated way, providing they can control 10% or more. best of luck to all. i will watch with interest.

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In support of Bryce and all of us who want to protect our investments and get a fair deal, I average out at about $1.75 not including the effects of inflation on true value, I looked into one possibility of what we can do.


Maybe you all know this anyway but apparently if we get to the compulsory acquisition then we can go the path of Section 661E of the Corporations Act and try to get a ruling. This looks at a fair value for the share price which is a large part of our argument. http://www.austlii.edu.au/au/legis/cth/con...1172/s661e.html


I for one would support any class action along that line although I'm sure it could get expensive - unless one of us is a lawyer willing to protect his investment and helps us out cheaply? Hmmm? Anyone?


Shoot me down if I'm wrong but I don't want to be forced into taking a loss by execs who only care for their own hide while pretending they have our interests at heart - if this offer is that then they have hearts made of cold greasy greed!

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Pretty sure the numbercrunchers at deuche would

be very dissappointed at the turnover of AAH since

the AGM, and their advice to their clients IMO would

be " No Deal " (said with their arms criss-crosed in front

of their chests).


It seems obvious to me that shareholders do not accept

this deal...why would anyone who likes the deal hold when

they could sell today at $1.40 plus 5c div = $1.47. the bid

now is $1.35 plus div so why are the shares not trading?


1) some are holding for a better offer

2) some won't sell anywhere near this price

3) some won't sell at all


The most frightening stat for Cephalon is the very low %

that hedge funds would have under their belts and hence

sold into the bid. From my calcs after churn this is well below 10%.

And it is this figure that will be so concerning as it indicates

to me that they will struggle to get even 40% and the bid will fail.


If the bid fails it will not be be the fault of the 2 exc egx board

members who IMO have done a valiant job to convince the

shareholders that their company is worth very little. Maybe

they will be due a bonus !


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