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  • 2 months later...



So what is RAP worth? IÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ll crunch some numbers with three scenarios: one with very pessimistic 1% of the target market captured, another other with a very optimistic 80% of the market captured, and a third capturing only two of the Chinese telehealth companies mentioned in the RAP presentation.


SCENARIO 1: IF 1% of market cornered


1% x 240million people x $5 per pop = $12 million revenue per annum

plus >$20million income from our WHO partner

= at least $32million income per annum.


PE of 40= $1.28 billion market cap

1.2billion/ current `$200milion market cap= 6

6x$0.30 =$1.80 share price



SCENARIO 2: IF 80% of market cornered


80% x 240 million people at $5 per pop = $950 million of revenue.


PE of 40 and you get $40 billion market capÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¦


Which translates roughly to a $60 share price


Note: I crunched these numbers assuming $5 per use RAP management have suggested they will charge anywhere between $5-10 per use, but I erred on the conservative side with these calculations to cover the operating costs (which are logically minimal).

So we see that even the so-called super optimistic calculation is based on the lowest sale price per use, and it doesnÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢t factor in expansion into India, Indonesia, other Asian markets plus South America. Remember our current target market, namely; the US, Europe and China, ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Â¹Ãƒƒâ€Â¦ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã¢â‚¬Å“onlyÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ captures a third of the worldÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢s population!



SCENARIO THREE: ResApp used by just two Chinese telehealth companies


Two Chinese telehealth companies as per 3 May 2016 Investor presentation:

Ping An Haoyisheng: 95,000 appointments per day * 360 days= 34 million appointments per year. Assuming 30% respiratory = 10 million potential RAP users.

Chunyuyisheng: 229 questions per minute 8 *10 hours * 360 days = 50 million appointments per year. Assuming 30% respiratory= 15 million potential RAP users.

25 million * $5 per use = $125 million potential revenue

PE of 40 and you get $5billion market capÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¦


Which translates to a share price of $7.50




You can see the spectrum of my projected share price calculation that it could range anywhere from $1.80 - $60.


These calculations assume that RAP can/will generate revenue. They assume that there isnÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢t another competitor out there with a product that can do the same thing for the same price. I point out to any newbies that it currently does not earn a cent.


Of course, stocks where revenue and growth is imminent will often have a share price well ahead of the typical PE rates of a low growth blue-chip stock. Cochlear has a PE of 40 and its revenue growth has been stable over the past few years. Where growth is expected to accelerate, PEÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢s can be in the 100ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢s because the shares are priced well ahead of actual revenue.


So what is RAP worth today? That depends on three things:


1) The risk investors ascribe to the stock.

2) The anticipated revenue RAP can generate.

3) How long it will take before RAP can generate revenue

I believe the upside to risk ratio is one of the best I have seen since I started trading 10 years ago.

I donÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢t ever say I get my calls right. Last year while it was 4 cents, I suggested it could be 20cents by Christmas- I was 2 months out.


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Undeterred by the disappointment of a well-backed asthma play called Invion, the wheezing disorder is the centre of attention for at least three listed plays: ResApp (RAP), the recently-listed Adherium (ADR) and Medical Developments (MVP).


ResApp has developed an app-based algorithm to detect respiratory disorders, which allows for remote or face-to-face diagnosis with a higher accuracy than a stethoscope.The ASX's best performer in the last 12 months, ResApp shares have surged 1500 per cent since listing in July last year, despite the wheeze-o-meters yet to win approval.


Another star performer, Medical Developments has run hard on the company's successful quest to introduce its Penthrox emergency pain relief tool to global markets. The so-called green whistle still awaits approval from the fussy FDA. But in the meantime, the authority has already approved the company's suite of devices to help patients manage asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.


"The path to approval for devices is far better understood,'' Medical Developments CEO John Sharman says. He says the US approval process is still costlier than elsewhere: getting FDA assent for the Space Chambers (the asthma product) cost $US1m, compared with a typical $US50,000 elsewhere.

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  • 4 months later...

Seem to have interests in similar stocks!


As per your comments on FGR, who would of thought coughing into a mobile phone app may lead to a medical innovation!! :biggrin: I sure as hell didn't until I consulted with my doctor at the time and though skeptical picked up some RAP shares which I haven't sold yet at around 4 cents. :biggrin:



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  • 6 months later...

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