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Tejay

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Ya fair enough I buy that and yea time shall tell, it will fall to 9500 ish this time, wether that is the bottom or it falls to 9000 from there or rebounds then goes to 9000 I am not that certain to call that move, a fall to 9500 will have a sluggish rally from then on, a fall to 9000 will be a sharp sell off and steep rise, but hey I have put it all on paper, so we can see in the future!

 

Cheers

 

Tejay

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Cheers Tejay

 

I have logged that post, and we'll see how things develope to the end of October.

 

I think the market will hold reasonably well, mainly because most traders will see this dip as an opportunity and the over all economy is still in very good shape.

 

IVC is my little shelter stock, lets see how it goes over the same period.

 

 

 

 

P.s. BSA I'm in total agreeance with your last few posts, don't try to read the market, just play the pitch !

 

 

Tex.

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Since the DJI has broken from its down trending channel it has been consolidating the past 8 weeks and is at resistance, with Dow furures up 30 points atm and assuming a good night in US?? then should see DJI above resitance level.

 

Cheers

post-37-1087797722.gif

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Yes Tex, DOW was up nicely at one stage but could not hold its gains?? It is still above channel trendline (only just) but not looking as healthy as before, so will have to wait and see. I dont usually get involved in trying to predict whether the market is going to fall or rise, only slid into this thread with some predicting a fall to 9,000 (which may or may not happen?) All I know is if I had listened to that post "Time to get out guys top of market today" I would have missed some darn good trades. I will just trade what is infront of me.

 

Cheers

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(((All I know is if I had listened to that post "Time to get out guys top of market today" I would have missed some darn good trades )))

 

http://www.ShareScene.com/html/emoticons/laughingsmiley.gif now that's funny http://www.ShareScene.com/html/emoticons/laughingsmiley.gif

 

In fairness, there was quite a few in the same panic mode, and as you say they could still be right....just their timing was out.

 

Tex.

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NEW YORK June 30, 2004 ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâ€Â ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¾Ã‚¢ÃƒÆ’ƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’Æâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã‚¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬Ãƒâ€Â¦ÃƒÆ’‚¡ÃƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’Æâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚ Wall Street ended the first half of 2004 with a moderate advance Wednesday as the Federal Reserve's widely expected interest rate hike allowed investors to put weeks of uncertainty about rates behind them.

The markets' reaction to the Fed's move which raises the benchmark lending rate by 0.25 percentage point was somewhat muted, as the hike was exactly what investors had anticipated. The increase, bringing rates off their 45-year low of 1 percent to 1.25 percent, was the first in four years.

 

The Dow Jones industrial average gained 22.05, or 0.2 percent, to 10,435.48.

 

Broader stock indicators were moderately higher. The Standard & Poor's 500 index was up 4.56, or 0.4 percent, at 1,140.76, and the Nasdaq composite index gained 12.86, or 0.6 percent, to 2,047.79.

 

Wednesday marked the halfway point of 2004, as well as the end of the second quarter. So far this year, the Dow is off 0.2 percent, but the S&P 500 has gained 2.6 percent and the Nasdaq has climbed 2.2 percent. All three major indexes were up for the quarter as well as the month of June.

 

Most investors and analysts believe the Fed's rate hike is the first of many, with another 0.25 percentage point increase possibly coming as early as the next Fed meeting in August. But with rates historically low to begin with, the cost of borrowing will still be very good for corporate America and won't unduly affect earnings.

 

"We're now in a rising rate environment, and will be for some time. I think the equity markets realize that, and that's already built into the curve," said Josh Feinman, chief economist for Deutche Asset Management. "The question is, do rates go up fast or slow, more or less? It's the trajectory, timing and the ultimate magnitude that we'll have to watch out for."

 

Feinman said the Fed should be able to keep to its promise of a "measured pace" of rate hikes, just as long as the economy's growth is moderate.

 

Before the Fed announcement, stocks were sluggish as investors hedged their bets against a Fed surprise that never materialized. Investors are now looking ahead to the key Labor Department report on employment on Friday, as well as July's second-quarter earnings reports.

 

"The anticipation of this rate hike has been far worse than the reality of it," said Brian Bush, director of equity research at Stephens Inc. "I think it's going to be a positive for the market to get past today's announcement so we can start looking at earnings pre-announcements and the underlying economic data."

 

In a preview of what the second-quarter results might look like, a number of companies reported better-than-expected earnings late Tuesday and Wednesday before the session.

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