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Tejay

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In reply to: happy2 on Wednesday 01/03/06 10:56am

Happy so you reckon the DOW may head back to 10,000? The economy is just too good for that to happen I feel. Every economist is saying the market is yet to reflect the positive economic environment.

 

Hence somewhere above 10500 should find a bottom.

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In reply to: crowman28 on Wednesday 01/03/06 11:07am

The economy itself seems to have underlying strength. GDP figures came in as expected by economists.

 

Consumer confidence is not looking good. Housing market is weakening and employment concerns were weighing down public sentiment according to the survey. Consumer confidence may change next month, but if it doesn't then people are less inclined to spend.

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The market drops some 100pts on the DOW, yet the NYSE has

 

Advancers: 2,246 (61.84%) Decliners: 1,081 (29.76%)

 

273 new highs and 10 new lows Unchanged: 305 (8.40%)

 

Advance/Decline Ratio: 2.08

 

 

More stocks advance than decline, the market goes down, which just goes to show there is some strength in the underlying economy that is not reflected in the bell weather stocks of the DOW.

 

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In reply to: crowman28 on Wednesday 01/03/06 05:26pm

DOW is above the 30day MA still. Finished on the line yesterday and has kicked up today. Petrol rising is not a good sign for the DOW. Wonder if it will rebound 50%.

 

Looking for a move down tonight on the DOW also. Tonights data will be the telling factors.

 

US 0030 Personal Income & Outlays

US 0200 ISM Mfg Index

US 0230 EIA Petroleum Status Report

 

 

 

 

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In reply to: happy2 on Wednesday 01/03/06 11:04pm

Happy could be a +20 night or relatively flattish then set up for an almighty fall couple of days later?

 

Petrol still not as high as $65. But last night's economic data crunched a few traders into selling.

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Here's a positive view.

 

QUOTE
In fairness, it wasnÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢t just Google weighing on the market yesterday. Consumer Confidence fell in February. And so did the Chicago-region manufacturing activity. Existing home sales for January came in low, too. Only the final GDP number for the final quarter of 2005 came in as expected.

Despite some apparent weakness in these numbers, donÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢t get too excited about a prolonged selloff for stocks. The economy has bounced back strong this quarter. Morgan Stanley economists are calling for 5.6% growth, the most since 3Q 2003.

And those Consumer Confidence surveys are backward-looking and notoriously unreliable.


***The most important dynamic to watch is not necessarily the slowing housing sector, but how GDP growth fares in light of the slowing housing sector. As we know, the housing sector has been the single most important factor for GDP growth over the last few years.

So if the US economy can post 5.6% growth while the housing market slows, IÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢d say thatÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢s pretty good

Briton L. Ryle
Chief Trading Strategist
Money-Flow Matrix Trading
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In reply to: crowman28 on Wednesday 01/03/06 11:52pm

Well that is his view.

 

I think the charts look more like a downward move is on the cards. Since the futures have risen not as confident. But seen this happen before and the DOW come down.

 

Waiting to see what the DOW is going to do. When I am sure it is going to go down, I will short. If nothing much happens tonight. The consumer survey out tomorrow should be negative.

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