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Tejay

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No mate we are not saying any major crash is going to happen now, just a general market pullback, however I am saying in 2008ish there will be a market crash IF things go as planned as of now.

 

Cheers

 

Tejay

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As mentioned I have a different view(which may well be wrong)

 

Dow Jones, break from down trending channel.

 

S&P 500 , break from down trending channel. The S&P is a broader based index than Dow and thus more accurate although agree most look to the Dow.

 

Nasdaq Composite, break from down trending channel.

 

The above have only just penetrated the upper channel trend line so may consolidate/pullback a tad but baring any really bad news I dont see a major fall happening.

 

Of course should I be wrong I do have stop loss points as always. I cant predict with reliability where or when, so trade whats infront of me,... the price action.

 

Cheers

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People look to the DOW thinking that the top 30 represent the core actions of what the economy is doing. But when you say big fall, what do you mean? I am talking about 10'300 to 9500 if you look back over history of the bull markets in the US this is small for a bull market correction (I have data back to 1896 if you want it). There is every reason for the dow to be in a strong bull market as for the medium/short term there is no reason for it to rise, olympics coming up - terroism, Sudi - terroism, high oil price, good employment figures - rate rise and a small fall in the consumer confidence firgures all combine to produce negative market action. In the short to medium term these are "-" in the longer term 3 off these will fade over time and 2 will end up been a "+".

 

Cheers

 

Tejay

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Fair enough guys, I guess pullbacks and rises are what makes a market, 2008 suits me just fine http://67.15.69.120/html/emoticons/laughingsmiley.gif

My feeling is, if we do have a pull back over the next few months.....it simply will be a good buying opportunity.

 

Tex.

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Yes you are correct texas4qld, it will be a great buying opertunity however wait to see what happens, this leg may take it to only 9500 and the next to 9000 its a gamble as to wether 9500 or 9000 will be the bottom, 9500 is easy, 9000 is going to be tough for it to sell off that much.

 

Cheers

 

Tejay

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Hi Tejay,

 

This morn you said, "Time to get out guys, top of the market today. Notice the volume, rrrr, horrible."

 

As I mentioned earlier I dont try to predict where and when the market will fall etc as I trade what is in front of me,...... the price action.

About 7 months ago at Tradersnetwork a non member and fairly good TAer (so I'm told) said the market was going to dive sell everything and get out of the market, now if I took heed of that I would have missed out on some good trends. I cant help but think a bull is still loose in the paddock, as DOW S&P and Nasdaq have all broken above down trending channels as I mentioned in a previous post.

They could well pull back of course, but I dont see a return to the lower trendline or 9,500 or 9,000 unless some really bad news/event takes place, and of course you could be correct in which case I will take appropriate action. However for now I remain a bull ( a cautious bull none the less)

 

Cheers

 

Charts are weekly data.

post-12-1086783222.gif

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Tejay

 

It sounds like you're using very tight time frames to call yesterdays retrace of the all-ords a "top".

 

Rather than calling the movements of the all-ords (considering that NAB or NCP can move the indicator by them selves) why don't you nominate a few stocks that have topped out and will fall considerably over the next few months ?

 

Tex.

 

 

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Lol Yesterday was not meant to be the top, today was meant to be, I trade currencies so I got by NY markets, sorry about the confussion. Ok as for it been the top, it is for the next month or so, as for stocks to fall, I will pick some out of the top 100. To fall we have: CSL ($20), NCP ($11.50ish), FXJ, CTX, WSF, RIO, SUN etc etc etc for rises (risky ones first) BLD, BEN, CLH, AMC, FOA (pretty certain ones for a rise) WPL, BOQ, SRP, WOW.

 

Cheers

 

Tejay

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Hi Tejay let me first say that the person at Tradersnetwork was NOT a member and no one listened to him, as far as calling a top, I too expected a pullback, usually when an upside break from a channel takes place a pullback / consolidation occurs its just your downside 9500 9000 targets I find hard to visualise(but hey you could be right?), will it keep retracing?? or will we have a period of consolidation before advancing??

Are we seeing that, or a broader sell off? I dont know, time will reveal all. I'm not trying to get into a peeing competion, I will let the market do the talking.

Your other comment "time to sell" perhaps time to be wary and time to look for stocks showing strenght in weakness.

 

Cheers

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