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dr_dazmo

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In reply to: ericson on Friday 01/08/08 04:12pm

Quick scan of the report (approx. $120 m a year profit forecast). Not near home pc but I thought our market capital was approx. $100m at the moment (or less). If all goes to plan, investment in IGR at this price will pay off over the long term.

 

IGR Profits either have to go into our bank accounts as dividends, stay in IGR bank or be used to prove more resources/investments. If in our bank sweet, if in IGR it will get revalued upwards, if used for more resources/investments we then hope that they spend wisely (they seem to have done this recently).

 

In any case any company that make profits simlar to the market capital on a sustained basis (10 year mine life) will get revalued in due time. Yes, I know that many others have been hammered in price, yes I agree there are many other bargains at the moment, many of them will be revalued upwards over time as well. If I get some funds I intend to buy other stocks as well as IGR.

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In reply to: chookboy on Friday 01/08/08 05:00pm

cb,

 

120,000 ounces/pa with a forecast margin of about $450 produces a profit of $54 million before tax. so knock a third off and then some for all those funny accounting items (depreciation, amortisation etc) and looking at more like 30 million, which would have it on a PE of approx 3 - still not too shabby but not a PE of less than 1.

Another approach could be to use the fairly common 6x cashflow which would lead to a market cap of about 300 million. So by either measure (PE of 10 or 6 x cashflow) you could expect price to be about three time current in a normal market and as a very rough estimation,

 

v

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In reply to: vegemite on Friday 01/08/08 06:30pm

With $15 mill in cash, I reckon that we will need up to another 30 to 40 before cash flow is established.

 

CC has once again subtly stated that on past results one can expect significant additional resources to be found. This could make us rich. ( or make up for some dogs)

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In reply to: ericson on Saturday 02/08/08 08:30am

We cannot expect too much from IGR for the time being. The junior market has been thrashed and even worse is the fact that gold juniors are certainly on the nose due to recent failures and talk out of the states of trying to increase the us dollar by oil price reduction etc etc. which could see gold price drop to low 800's

The oz market right now is hugely quiet. Buyers are completely on holidays and only look for certainty in respect of dividends etc that such juniors never pay out. Junior goldies are about hype, future blue sky etc etc..

I hold a heap of IGR and have them in the bottom draw for at least a year and most likely until production is close in late 2009. If there is no further spectacular discoveries, then expect IGR to drift sideways and hopefully not down over the next year or so.

Dont sell , hold hold and hold , and even buy if it drops sub 20 cents. This is a great stock , but in this market its not going anywhere for a while as much as I hate to say it.

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In reply to: Keith49 on Saturday 02/08/08 02:49pm

Hi Keith, Thanks for your comments, I havent seen you on this thread before.

 

I also have a bundle in the bottom draw. I think that we can look foward to some more worthwhile discoveries, hopefully this will help buoy the price through any decline in the Au price.

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In reply to: Keith49 on Saturday 02/08/08 02:49pm

Keith49,

If you truely believe in the words that you've written, then it makes absolutely zero sense to hold on to your shares. You're pretty much saying that they'll be sideways at best and likely to dip down around 20c. So why hold? Even a bank offers around 8% these days, why not convert to cash, wait until you get a signal that IGR is on the up again and limit your downside risk?

 

I understand we all have different investing methods and techniques and there's things like capital gains tax to consider, but 8% is far better than any negative figure.

 

You IGR fans hate to hear anything negative, so I'll duck for cover now. It's worth some consideration though.

 

Crazy

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In reply to: vegemite on Friday 01/08/08 06:30pm

Thanks Vege, I was at work so quickly scanned and seen $129m in the report (thought it was yearly amount) and thought woo-hoo! Should have waited until I had more time to read the report in full. Still $129m over current life bodes well when current market capital is approx. $93m I appreciate your workings

 

Hi Crazy, no need to go to ground. What you say makes sense, many stocks are currently paying good dividends so IGR won't be a stock to suit everyone as there are risks with this type of venture eg. gold price drops, oil goes up again etc.

 

Each to their own investing style, thanks for contributing to the forum.

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From Marketwatch.com:

 

Beahm said Blanchard "continues to see distinct weakness in the U.S. economy over the long-term," and expects gold to move "north of $1,000 during the coming months and achieving a new record high near $1,150 by the end of the year."

 

So that would change the equation somewhat. $1150 would mean a profit of 120000*(1150-505)=$77.4M PA.

 

Obviously no-one really knows what will happen but unless there is a major pullback in the POG then I can only see IGR getting better and better over the next year as it prepares for the next bull market.

 

Anyone got any good short term tips whilst we wait? http://www.sharescene.com/html/emoticons/cool.gif

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In reply to: LordSpesh on Saturday 02/08/08 11:08pm

Spechie

 

Given we are probably another year away from getting any cash inflows who knows what our prospects will be with IGR as a producer. Besides there are just too many variable IMO all going in different directions at the moment.

 

For instance the AUD:USD exchange rate: some are predicting we are headed for parity and others, for instance Marc Faber, suspects that resources based currencies such as the Aussie will fall away in comparison to the greenback in coming months. And then there is talk of the Reserve Bank dropping interest rates to help out a slowing economy rather than persisting in trying to kill off inflation.

 

If you want to get a picture of how dire things are in the local gold sector - with the rise in costs in AUD terms - have a listen to the CEO of Rameleus on BoardRoom Radio. If there are too many more local gold producers that fail then what will be the extra penalties charged to prospective producers like IGR, no matter how good a story they have to tell.

 

It also seems that we are working our way through a credit crunch the likes of which most of us have not experienced before. Lots of normally viable projects will just not get financing at prices that will allow them to prosper.

 

So even for those of us who think that in IGR we have found good management with a good project the next 12 months will make for interesting times IMO.

 

As for what to do: for me I'll be watching closely the Olympics and the US presidental election campaign for inspiration, as those events will give us exceptional insights as to how the two most important players are travelling. By the time IGR starts to ramp up towards production maybe we have already sailed through the storm clouds and good times will be back.

 

For a bit of nearology, given that at Red Dale IGR now thinks "these anomalies are reflecting gold anomalous transported basal gravels derived from a nearby bedrock source" and that IGR "considers the material is unlikely to have been transported a significant distance ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã‚¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬Ãƒâ€Â¦ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã¢â‚¬Å“ in the order of a few hundred metres" you might want to have a look at Rubicon Resources which has sites adjacent to both Salt Creek (within 600 metres) and Red Dale. They have drill results due from what they say is adjacent to Salt Creek.

 

But if in doubt, maybe just cash it out. http://www.sharescene.com/html/emoticons/smile.gif

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