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Does It Get Any Better For The Big Four?  

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As good a place as any to stash this titbit:

 

I believe it wasn't a big issue when Moodys downgraded the big 4 earlier this year, as most credit lending mandates give some leway in downgrades on lending by saying it's okay if 2/3 rating agencies maintain a higher rating.... looks like the other shoe will drop sometime in the next week or so.

 

More than A$70 billion on issue from 37 banks revised by S&P

 

Wednesday, 30 November 2011 09:02

The 37 international banks which had their Standard & PoorÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢s (S&P) ratings revised on November 29 ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã‚¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬Ãƒâ€Â¦ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã¢â‚¬Å“ predominantly for the worse ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã‚¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬Ãƒâ€Â¦ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã¢â‚¬Å“ in line with the agencyÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢s new criteria have more than A$70 billion (US$70.2 billion) on issue in Kangaroo and domestic Australian format according to KangaNews data. They also have more than NZ$2.5 billion (US$1.9 billion) outstanding Kauri and New Zealand domestic bonds.

 

Among the 37 banks very few of the borrowers active in Australia and New Zealand escaped unscathed, with many of the biggest-issuing names seeing their ratings downgraded by one or two full notches (see table following story).

 

AustraliaÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢s banks were not included in the first clutch of firms to have their ratings reviewed in light of S&PÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢s new criteria. Market sources believe an announcement on the Australian names is likely to follow in the next week or two ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã‚¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬Ãƒâ€Â¦ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã¢â‚¬Å“ and possibly by December 1 ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã‚¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬Ãƒâ€Â¦ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã¢â‚¬Å“ with the consensus analyst view being that the most likely outcome is a stable single-notch downgrade for the big four from their current level of AA.

 

However, strategists have suggested the best-case scenario ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã‚¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬Ãƒâ€Â¦ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã¢â‚¬Å“ the Australian majors retaining their AA ratings with a likely outlook revision to negative from stable ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã‚¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬Ãƒâ€Â¦ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã¢â‚¬Å“ is rather less likely than either a downgrade to A+ stable or AA- negative.

http://www.kanganews.com/index.php/news/1-...194-sap-ratings

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Egads EB - I hope I didn't influence your trading decision! If it is any constellation I got rid of the few long positions I opened up on Friday and after the rally on Monday yesterday too.

 

Still it was interesting to see that part of yesterdays rally was attributed to the 6 central banks announce that they were getting together to provide further bank liquidity via additional swap lines - maybe they see the TED spread creeping above 50bpts as some sort of klaxon or perhaps they know something we don't know?

 

Not that the announcement really did much to improve stress in the credit market, as the TED closed at 53bpts last night.... last nights equity rally could prove to be very short lived if the TED continues to push higher.

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/!TEDSP:IND

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Egads EB - I hope I didn't influence your trading decision!

=====================================

 

you know why i want to bang my head DS?? because your post did influenced me, i was reluctant to sell all day, and your post is the last straw. funny how it happened to me--- someone in the market for so many years still can't stick to it's own judgement! :grrr:

 

it just shows how important your posts DS!

 

PS, don't take it as i blame you. it is the way that i praise you! :P

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  • 1 year later...
  • 2 years later...

While banks have come back to a more attractive valuation around 11.4 times fiscal 2016 earnings per share, CLSA's Brian Johnson says the sector faces a more challenging structural environment than it has done for a while, and he warns investors to be ready for another round of capital raisings ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã‚¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚ expected to be the last round of recapitalisations in this business cycle.

 

CLSA has buy ratings on Macquarie and NAB.

 

Westpac, ANZ, Bendigo Bank and Bank of Queensland get underperform ratings

 

CBA is rated sell with a $69 a share target price on the basis that it is "overearning, overbought, undercapitalised, overly expensive and has an unwarranted valuation premium".

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GermanyÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢s biggest bank said in a statement Monday that it has more-than-sufficient means to pay coupons on its riskiest debt both this year and in 2017. Deutsche Bank also published a note to employees from Chief Financial Officer Marcus Schenck that said the firmÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢s ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Â¦ÃƒƒÂ¢Ãƒ¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…âہ“capital and risk position remains strong

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...-of-1-1-billion

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this is the one to watch i guess. looks it unlikely to suffer the fate of Lehman at this stage. but you can't say they won't let it go like Lehman after what they did at GFC.

chance is low but can't rule it out.

 

 

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Foreign hedge funds are talking up a collapse in the local housing market and taking short positions in the big four banks, but their enthusiasm is misplaced, Aurora Funds Management says.

Hedge funds have stepped up their positions in the "widow-maker" trade of short-selling Australia's banks, anticipating falls on the back of what they see is a housing bubble due to burst.

Short-sellers have enjoyed some success, with the share prices in the big four falling between 20 and 30 per cent since capital requirements sent them tumbling from at or near record highs last April.

Yet the housing market isn't in crisis, despite the hedge fund doomsaying, Aurora senior portfolio manager Hugh Dive said.

Foreign investors apply the same metrics that saw the Irish, Spanish and US housing market declines in the past decade.

"Whilst Australian housing can be viewed as expensive globally, we see a range of factors that strongly encourage Australian households to maintain mortgage payments," he said.

"These include recourse lending, homes are exempt from capital gains tax and strong cultural desire to own one's own home."

Foreign investors are also skeptical of the scale of Australian banks. All four now sit in the top 15 globally by market capitalisation, beefed up by record banking profits, their attractive yields, and higher interest rates relative to Europe, Japan and the US.

"The basis of their thesis is that four banks from a small backwater in the financial world have little business being amongst the largest in the world," Dive said.

 

 

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/markets-liv...l#ixzz40xO8gu2C

Follow us: @smh on Twitter | sydneymorningherald on Facebook

 

=================

 

:unsure:

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