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Can any smart fundamentalist comment on the financial situation reported in the last Quarterly?

Especially the items -

  • Loan facilities: $58M all used up
  • Cash left in bank: $25M
  • Payments to Directors: $792K in the June Quarter
all to be divided amongst 635M shares
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Welcome to the Club, Mick

I don't get it either - hence my question.

Better stick to what I know: T/A, with focus on price and momentum.

Resistance is still at 14c, which is the price I should've taken profit :sadsmiley02:

Close Below 12.5 will be curtains for me.

 

post-20537-1376877308_thumb.jpg

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Look at the chart, Mista:

I bought the break, indicated by the blue arrow.

Initial expectation was for sp to revisit, possibly even break, the 100% level.

But then resistance dropped to

14c, which is the price I should've taken profit http://www.sharescene.com/style_emoticons/default/sadsmiley02.gif

Close Below 12.5 will be curtains for me.

My fundamental Q this morning was born out of "intellectual curiosity" - same reason why I read your VSA assessment.

The subsequent "note to self" referred to my folly of giving another opinion the benefit, my own the doubt.

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Hi Arty Im getting bashed up by cranswick to buy in here. Being a fundamentalist Im checking out prospects for coal and they dont look too healthy to me.

But thing is GUF has close proximity to China so may be able to sell their production first.

 

Where do you think Arty the SP is going with GUF over the next 6 months say? If your charts do longer term that is.

 

Thanks incase I get an answer :)

 

 

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Hi Arty Im getting bashed up by cranswick to buy in here. Being a fundamentalist Im checking out prospects for coal and they dont look too healthy to me.

But thing is GUF has close proximity to China so may be able to sell their production first.

 

Where do you think Arty the SP is going with GUF over the next 6 months say? If your charts do longer term that is.

 

Thanks incase I get an answer :)

 

 

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Hi Frodo,

 

yes, I do have a chart variant that covers longer-term outlooks.

e.g. the Weekly scale looks like this:

 

post-20537-1377133878_thumb.jpg

Of course, I can't stress the point enough: Any projection into the future can only be conditional. Which means, I can point at a few positive "lights at the end of the tunnel" - which is the long drawn-out slump as evidenced by the falling trendline. Those "lights" are rising momentum (see white lines in the MACD window), which suggest price may be starting to rise as well. The pink "T" is my own Trinity indicator, making me "T"entatively aware that the downtrend may be about to turn. The arrow above it marks the level (13.5c) on which the assumption is based.

On the flip side, there are still a few caveats that make me tread carefully and kept me from opening a long-term holding:

Volume is still low (which, in Trinity terms, has caused the "T" to be coloured pink instead of green)

Earlier volume spikes have usually been followed by more selling.

And the Daily chart still has the strong resistance at 14c, which I've commented on in earlier discussions with Mistagear.

Fundamentally: Have you read about RIO's spat with the Mongolian authorities that led to them dismissing 1700 coal miners from their underground mine? If RIO shuts down a multi-Billion Dollar operation, I'm getting concerned about the chances a tiddler like GUF has in that environment...

 

Summarising: There is a chance of a recovery - say low 20's within 6 to 8 weeks - but the odds for that to happen aren't strong enough yet for me to put my money on it.

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