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Baltic Dry Index


veeone

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Time for its own thread i thought....

Twiggs latest

We have mixed signals this week, with Fedex ready for a take-off, but the Baltic Dry Index is faltering. Reflecting international bulk shipping rates, the index reversed below support at 4300 after a marginal break to a new high. Falling Momentum warns that the primary up-trend is weakening. Declining shipments of bulk commodities are a bearish sign for China (the primary customer) and global resources stocks.

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Declining shipments of bulk commodities are a bearish sign for China (the primary customer) and global resources stocks.

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V1: Can see we are going to have some fun with this indicator!

 

1: The BDI has RISEN 472% in one year--so what in the name of all thats holy does one months minimal drop really tell you

when the index only reflects indicated shipping rates?

 

2. Since the BDI is as in 1--an indicator only---does one months drop mean SHIPMENTS are dropping today--of course it doesnt.

 

3. Why is one months drop in a shipping price indicator a bearish sign for China?

 

4. Why bearish for commodities? (commodities in general?--BDI is a dry indicator and mainly for iron ore)

 

Presume Colin Twiggs--in the end wants to sell you something--probably some software---ask him why the 2010 Iron Ore price negotiations just starting tip a 20% increase for fines in 2010--China's car production went up 100% this year--going to stop next year?

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The BDI fell quite heavily between June/September this year--has that stopped China--was that bad for China-

did they stop making steel? Stop them making cars etc?

 

IMO this is all about nothing more than currency movements which in turn reflect stocking or de stocking INTENTIONS in China's

manufacturing heartland.

 

Do Your Own Research!

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  • 3 months later...

Twiggsie

The Baltic Dry Index is retracing to test short-term support at 3300; respect would signal an advance to 4600. A surge in shipments of bulk commodities would be good news for resources stocks, but the HARPEX container freight index remains extremely low, indicating that manufacturing exports lag way behind.

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By Ben Sharples

 

March 23 (Bloomberg) -- Coal shipments from AustraliaÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢s Newcastle port fell by 24 percent last week. The queue of ships waiting to load coal cargoes dropped to 50, Newcastle Port Corp. said on its Web site today.

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601081&sid=a2XnrKAFs1qI

 

 

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  • 2 months later...

Backed up by this Harper Peterson report from May 20.

"This last week has seen increased activity in all sizes. The rates for panamax and post panamax fixtures continue to increase, however, what is most newsworthy in the last week is the increase in activity in the feeder market, particularly in Asia. Rates are moving up with every fixture and this pressure from the smaller sizes should provide impetus for the whole charter market. The summer period will be crucial for the market to see if the momentum continues."

"The feeder market, especially in Asia, is extremely active with operators reporting great difficulty in securing quality tonnage. Rates are therefore rising with cv1100 tonnage breaking through the usd 5000 barrier and other good specification, fuel efficient ships achieving above usd 6000 in some instances. This is complimented by a number of fixtures of 1600 teu ships above usd 6000 for short period requirements. We expect usd 6000 to become the norm rather than the exception within short. "

 

http://www.harperpetersen.com/mark/69.html

 

 

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FF: IMO by closely watching the BDI during May--one would have been primed to expect this info and not have been panicked into selling down with the market. ie The BDI is a forward looking indicator for iron ore and coal.

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May 26 (Bloomberg) -- Asian stocks rallied from a 10-month low, led by commodity producers, as speculation of rising demand in China overshadowed European debt concerns that dragged the euro lower. The won stabilized as South KoreaÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢s government pledged to intervene in markets amid tensions with the North.

 

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed 0.6 percent to 109.46 at 4 p.m. in Tokyo. The measureÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢s gauge of raw-material makers surged 1.6 percent as copper gained 1.2 percent and oil advanced 1.1 percent. The Stoxx Euro 600 increased 1.3 percent to 235.02. Standard & PoorÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢s 500 Index futures rose 0.2 percent. The euro fell to $1.229 from $1.2345 in New York. The won was little changed after falling yesterday by the most in a year.

 

Investor sentiment improved after Rio Tinto Group, the worldÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢s third-biggest mining company, said it expects commodity demand in China, the engine of the global recovery, to increase in the next 15 years. Concerns the European debt crisis and Chinese property curbs will hurt growth have dragged the MSCI World Index down by 15 percent from its high this year in April.

 

 

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True and despite all the turmoil in Europe and the US market in the last five days, the Shanghai composite has remained fairly stable over this period, going from 2582 to 2623. I think that and the BDI are far more important to the Australian market than what is happening in Greece. The drop in the $A should also help our export industries. Hopefully our market will take note and start climbing again.

 

 

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