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Soft Commodities


kelt
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Hello Neilo,

 

Does look like a H&S. I hadn't noticed that. Great move last night. wow. Was holding wheat but covered corn a few days back because it was getting hard to read.

 

I covered wheat last night around 536 and may look to short again if there is a bounce (looking at the hourly and 15min charts).

 

The longest I have held softs for has been about a week (average probably 2 to 3 days). Part of the reason is I have only been trading softs for a few months and I want to get comfortable trading them. I tend to just trade support and resistance and any nice T/A setups. If we are in a Wave c of an ABC down I have a target of around 480.

 

Looking for a longer term short on sugar if the right setup presents. It's gone from $5 to $29 in about four years.

post-2575-1263337846.jpg

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  • 4 weeks later...

It's amazing the amount of noise around copper ATM, here's an article from around a week or two ago, http://www.chinapost.com.tw/business/asia/.../Copper-may.htm , given the high inventories at the LME and the price around $3.40 a pound, somebody posted this on another forum whilst ramping CDU, and i disputed it on basic supply and demand at the LME.

 

It was obvious a correction was needed.

 

Now this week we see articles like this, only two weeks later! http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...z1qBs&pos=6

 

I am also disputing THIS article, it wreaks of "I'm short big time". Two articles in two weeks with two crazy biased opinions based on hype.

 

The truth lies somewhere in the middle, in "reality land" IMO. Dose anybody believe we will have every new ipad, ipod, mobile phone, laptop, solar panel, electric vehicles etc etc without using copper?

 

Did copper just go from being the number 1 irreplaceable world resource to becoming totally useless in one week?

 

I don't think so.

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G'day Neilo,

 

I'm in China at the moment so haven't been posting, as my wireless is pretty ordinary. I will be back in a couple of weeks. Just been trading the grains, gas and copper.

 

Here is a chart of sugar. Huge broadening wedge, so you would have to think the top is probably in. Went short at the top but just held it for 2 days. I have to learn to hold longer. Went short again when it broke the wedge, but got stopped out as it was a false break(more clear on the hourly) and didn't get the opportunity to go short again as I was out getting tanked up with my wifes relatives. I'm not sure where these bounces normally take you, maybe a retest of the wedge for another short opportunity.

 

post-2575-1265600749.jpg

 

I'm also long wheat at a similar price to you. Hard to know yet if it's a good price. Went long wheat, corn and soybean last tues/wed and caught that nice bounce but only sold soybean and the profit from the other two evaporated. Might be best to sell half on any bounce and wait for a retrace. There doesn't seem to be any real clear buy signals yet in the grains.

 

post-2575-1265601452.jpg

 

One chart concerns me a little with wheat is the weekly. The lower support channel is quite a bit lower. Similar with corn. Anyway got to shoot. Sorry this probably doesn't help alot.

 

post-2575-1265601684.jpg

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It is great thanks Hungry.

 

Love the chinese hospitality, helps if your wife has friends and relatives in a few big cities. Kids miss the open spaces abit though. I don't mind where I am as long as I can do some trading, although you can't beat OZ. Don't mind trying anything once however I don't recommend the sheeps testicles. Maybe EB has a softer pallet.

 

Married a couple in Jinan that was interesting and my girls were a huge hit as the flower girls. Spent a week in Xiamen which might be the Chinese equivalent to Queensland. Everything still booming along over here. Really need to get back to Australia to detox though.

 

EB I think Xiamen could be the city if we decide to move over here for a couple of years. Love it! HNY....

 

Neilo just showing below how my trading changes as the circumstances change. With regards to sugar, I took a short as it backtested the wedge, and the pattern started showing a bullish flag(orange channel) so I covered and went long as it broke the channel. So it looks like it is having an abc countertrend rally. If c is equal to a should get up to 28/28.20. I covered my longs before I went to bed and have shorts in at 28. Not sure where to put stops yet. Maybe 28.50 or abit above. If it doesn't get to 28 I will just wait patiently for another setup. That's the plan, my not play out, but just wanted to give you an idea how my trading changes as the chart does.

 

post-2575-1265962692.jpg

 

Wheat, soybean and corn looking good.

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