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In reply to: neutron on Wednesday 14/01/09 09:22am

quite right, neutron

I've been caught on a few occasions myself. The difference lies in risk awareness and capital management. What you call "pretty pictures" includes a range of probabilities for profit and loss expectations, which drive not only my position sizes (some quite small) but also the tightness of stop loss levels.

Those "pretty pictures" are never a guarantee that "I'm right"; the trick is to have the discipline to react quickly when the tide turns, so on volume-weighted average one gets it right more often than not.

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In reply to: arty on Wednesday 14/01/09 11:49am


Can't argue with that reasoning and strategy.


I would only add that it is possible to shift the profit/loss expectations further in ones favour by filtering the T/A setups with a strong understanding of the fundamental currents of a particular setup.


For all I know you may be doing this to some degree already.


btw... I am a big fan of T/A... maybe the most powerful tool in the toolbox ?!?


Ekman... banks do not need much of an excuse for a cash grab atm.... if they can get away with it.


Sign of the times I guess.



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In reply to: jbaylyst on Wednesday 14/01/09 10:18am

I don't think so, J

Price moves after "surprises" are usually driven by psychology/ emotions. And that is mainly influenced by how well the news is packaged or "spun".

IDL is still a well-managed company. When it re-opens, we'll see whether the nervous nellies prevail - there may even come a chance of taking advantage of an avalanche of stop-loss selling.

That's the main reason why my trading rule is predominantly focused on "Buy Close above..." and "Sell Close below..."

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19 December 2008

LISTING RULE 3.10A Notification ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã‚¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬Ãƒâ€Â¦ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã¢â‚¬Å“ ESCROWED SECURITIES

As required by Listing Rule 3.10A we hereby advise the market that the following issued

securities are due to be released from voluntary escrow on 7 January 2009:

1,948,461 fully paid ordinary shares.


Robin Levison

Managing Director



Pardon me for enquiring: What is the attraction of this share? Its daily chart is plain awfull, not even near breaking the daily downtrend--whats happened to "The trend is my friend".


A quick read of the 19th December announcement re escrow release date not ring any alarm bells?


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QUOTE (flower @ Wednesday 14/01/09 01:03pm)

1.9M shares out of 800+M: Where is the relation?

As regards trend: To a TA trader, IDL's chart displays a round bottom with Bullish Divergence and change of trend. (Just juxtapose it with CVN's and you'll notice the difference http://www.sharescene.com/html/emoticons/wink.gif )


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In reply to: arty on Wednesday 14/01/09 02:25pm

why still suspended when brokers already knew the bad news?

Bell Porter still has a buy rating this morning despaite the bad news.


some key points from the research report.


"Xstrata to put Handlebar Hill into care and maintenance

Xstrata has announced a restructuring of its Mount Isa zinc-lead operations, which

will result in the Handlebar Hill mine being placed into care and maintenance from

mid February. Consequently Industrea has received a notice of termination for its

contract with Xstrata at Handlebar Hill".


"Contract termination has a meaningful impact

We have reduced our FY09-11 EPS estimates by 8-17% to reflect the cancellation

of the Handlebar Hill contract. We expect this to be slightly offset by additional

work at Black Star, where Xstrata announced an expected 38% increase in

production for CY09".

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In reply to: busylion on Thursday 15/01/09 11:11am

My feeling is that they will update the market with a revised profit / revenue forecast for FY09, rather than the market speculating on the impact.


Case in point is Bell Potter's revisions - there's a big difference between 8 and 17%!

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QUOTE (busylion @ Thursday 15/01/09 10:11am)

Shhh BL http://www.sharescene.com/html/emoticons/ohmy.gif don't tell! http://www.sharescene.com/html/emoticons/devilsmiley.gif

When bad news is over-emphasized and good news mentioned only in passing or not at all, the obvious conclusion is "They" want to buy more for less.

For IDL, that has been my observation for some time: The blue "A" on 8/12 in the chart below stands for "Accumulation going on".

On the zoomed-out chart I posted yesterday, you find an even earlier "A" alert last September.


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