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Gold in AUD


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That's easy, Rosco

Looking forward to your rationale.


PS for Flower: I thought that's obvious - you simply don't multiply by 0.9; I provided the formulas to apply as and when numbers change. It is not a prediction. For every opinion predicting the imminent collapse of the USD/ explosion of pog, I've read another one, reasoning why gold may be toppy. Keeping an open mind, when I see it, I no longer have to believe it. Then I know.


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Thx Arty,


When the market was running hot there were some strongly climbing charts that showed a definitive curve, and after some time I found I could visually project a chart curve (non-logarithmic) to estimate the peak of a spike for an individual stock -with surprising accuracy (me the one being surprised).


I simply don't know if it applies to commodities, or in this type of market. The gold chart in AUD would seem to imply it has run too far too fast....which is not what I would hope (or expect). The gold chart in AUD logarithmic would imply it still has some ways to run - at least another $400AUD. Unfortunately this bet each way isn't at all helpful.


Anyway, thanks for the chart. Time will tell. I'll be watching closely. Might be interesting to revisit in a few months time.





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Thanks Rosco,

The more guesstimates, the better. As long as there is some kind of a systematic approach behind it ;)

If your visual extrapolation works best on a linear-scaled chart, have a look at this one. It's for Silver, unfortunately only in USD, as Reuters don't provide a translation into "real money".

Where does your crystal ball see this chart heading?


(I wouldn't be surprised if it dropped back to $12.20 before breaking out towards $17.)


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Hi balance,

That's always been my objection to those ratios: It takes two to tango, and if they move in different directions, the ratio will change. Whether that's towards the long-term average or away from it, nobody can say.

It may be useful to know that on average, gold has been 60-times as expensive as silver; but even if there were some basis to the assumption the ratio had tp revert back towards this average, that could be achieved by Au and Ag moving in a number of different ways relative to each other.

IMHO, the uses of silver and gold - industrial, investment, luxury - keep changing over time; I even believe that silver is becoming more "useful" than gold. In the 3rd quarter of last century, every parent and child "needed" his/her own camera and baby photos and holiday snaps were sent all over the world. Consequently, silver demand rose exponentially. The video and digital camera systems changed all that, and silver prices dropped back. That may soon change again, however, as an increasing number of new uses are discovered, e.g. in medicine (see This Website ) and "green" technologies.



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"Some of them, particularly the offshore banks, are required to get those funds home as soon as possible," he said.


"They have been told 'pull it back, don't care what it means, pull it back' and I think that's where the difficulty will come."










Keeps the downward pressure on the Oz$ one would think.




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There is growing concern that the world economy is taking another sharp downward step, with renewed concerns for banking stability and falling consumer and business confidence. This may lead to another larger than expected interest rate cut when the Reserve Bank meets on Tuesday.


Dr Henry sits on the RBA.



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