Gold in AUD

[arty]

Creating a new topic to avoid upsetting the Internationalists. Please keep your replies to the subject.

 

Starting with an observation that is based on technical analysis:

GOLD could always be bought and sold for Australian currency, even though an ASX-tradeable instrument was created only in 2003.

It's this instrument, and its price development, which the chart below investigates.

 

Assuming a Low price as per the chart, I shall watch closely what happens when the price of 1/10th oz reaches AUD $150. Followers of Fibonacci Analysis will notice how the price chart has reacted at the classical levels in the past.

Seeing how volume has been dropping off after the break above the High of March 2008, resistance at $150 and a subsequent retracement back to $110-115 must be rated a high probability.

[TheFerret]

Good one Arty

[arty]

Here is the result of an analysis that I ran last weekend.

Where I initially posted it, subsequent debating has added several pages on top, and if you blinked, you've missed it. As it's mainly about Gold.AX, I repeat it here in abbreviated form.

Different opinions and different timeframes create markets.

Gold in USD may be one way of looking at things, maybe even prosper. It's certainly not the only way to make a profit.

Depending on one's timeframe and skills at picking the right instrument/ reading the charts/ keeping an open eye and mind on what's really happening - there are lots of ways to outperform a single class. And here is proof:

 

I've compared the same 8 "instruments" over 15 different periods, starting at the beginning of the current Millennium (1/1/2001).

Instruments are Gold in AUD, Gold and Silver in US$, US S&P500 (GSPC), Aussie All Ords (AORD), and three ASX sectors: Materials, Finance, and Energy.

I'll attach only two of 15 charts and let them speak for themselves. They all confirm that for most of the time, bullion bought and sold in Australian currency has matched and often exceeded performance of its US counterpart. Likewise, GOLD.AX has also outperformed most indices of the Australian Market - which is of course no surprise: indices are a weighted average of a large number of individual shares - which includes duds as well as strong performers. That part of the analysis is really a no-brainer.

If we were to pick (Harry Hindsyter-fashion) some stellar performers, e.g. PDN in 2004, the result would be "somewhat different"

Anybody interested, send me an IM or e-mail, and I can forward the MA Pro templates.

[rossw]

good thread arty

 

I got some GOLD shares about 2 years ago (around the low 80's) to see how it would go compared to my bankwest savings

up about 60% since I think that's a bit better!

just wish i got more

 

I'll hold it for a few more years and see if all this inflation stuff I read about is going to give gold a real solid push up

[arty]

I can forward the MA Pro templates

Sorry - I forgot that not everybody has that program

Just have a look at how PDN outperformed everything in 2004 and 2006.

That's why I prefer a Technical Analyser to scan the entire market, rather than limit myself to one or two stocks/ sectors.

[arty]

new circular, may be of interest to Aussie Golden Girls (and guys)

 

http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/annou...sedDuringCode=W

[flower]

And this is where it starts to get difficult for Commodites observed/priced/traded in Australian Dollars----IMHO

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Feb. 17 (Bloomberg) -- Shipping costs have more than doubled this year, so it may be time to buy kroner, Aussies and loonies.

 

The 147 percent jump in ocean-transport prices is evidence that China's $580 billion stimulus plan will lift raw materials, said Ihab Salib, who oversees $3 billion at Federated Investments Inc. in Pittsburgh. That would benefit countries exporting them, so Salib is "actively trading" Norway's krone and Australian and Canadian dollars, nicknamed Aussies and loonies.

 

Salib and other currency traders have started using the Baltic Dry Index's global gauge of raw-material shipping costs to help make such decisions. The index and the value of a basket of those three resource-rich countries' currencies are increasingly moving in tandem -- 96 percent of the time in the past year, up from 84 percent in the past decade, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

 

"Historically, the Baltic Dry Index is a good leading indicator for commodity prices," said Salib, who declined to detail his investments. "Commodities are very depressed right now, and they offer good long-term value. Once they come back, these currencies should do well."

 

The shipping gauge is a sign that China's stimulus spending on housing, highways, airports and power grids will have impact beyond its borders. By

[arty]

And this is where it starts to get difficult

Not of you look at the chart that matters: Gold in AUD; and extrapolate

[TheFerret]

It's in blue sky territory, over 1500 as we speak. Up against all currencies, not sure what the US T Bonds are doing at this point but would not surprise me if the rates are moving up there also - has the Fed finally lost control.

[thirty8south]

 

this change from Monday is ______ for traders because

 

AQUA rule framework

will no longer receive dynamic order depth updates

(market making for this ETF)

have all participant IDs disclosed on all orders and trades

 

metal entitlement is 0.098062706 fine troy oz

held in vault usually located in London or Zurich.

Oh, I'd like to know where they are unusually located,

perhaps Bermuda, Caymans, Nigeria.

 

Question is, is this really gold bullion backed, or just another "fancy" structured product

to pool punters money, allowing the vendors to make bigger bets?

 

further, redeemable preference share with a nominal value of 1/1000th of a cent.

 

suppose must investigate difference (prices) between metal delivery and metal sale models.