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Mags
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Where do you think unemployment will be by Xmas 2009  

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With the global economy changing its dynamics on a daily basis, it becomes aparent that the slowing world economy is nibbling more and more at the strength of the Australian domestic economy. How do you see local jobs being affected?
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  • 2 months later...

In reply to: Mags on Tuesday 30/12/08 06:29pm

where is unemployment now?

 

perhaps putting down the current rate for posterity would make this more valuable.

 

signs are there that employment levels will drop further with banks and miners letting staff go. perhaps in the short term less child care places will put pressure on some families to move to single incomes which might also tickle things a little lower.

 

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QUOTE (wolverine @ Tuesday 30/12/08 07:01pm)

http://www.news.com.au/business/story/0,27...756-462,00.html

 

Melbourne Business School professor Mark Crosby.

"In a gloomy new year outlook, economists are predicting unemployment could rise through 2009 from its current 4.4 per cent level towards 8 per cent, costing a further 400,000 people their jobs"

 

Citigroup economist Paul Brennan

"Citigroup economist Paul Brennan expects the RBA to cut to a historic low of 3 per cent in its published cash rate, citing his bank's forecasts that Australia's economy would record nil growth over next year and unemployment would peak at 6.7 per cent in 2010."

 

The Australian Government

"Treasury has forecast that number to creep upwards to 5 per cent next year and 5.75 per cent in 2010."

 

Not surprising the story focuses on the "worse" of the 3 predictions, you have to sell papers I guess http://www.sharescene.com/html/emoticons/wink.gif

 

________________________________________________________

 

So three predictions... high 5's, 6's or 7's (the story states "towards 8 per cent" which really means high 7's). If you take the average figure of high 6's you are talking about 200,000 jobs. 200,000 jobs doesn't equally "the sky is falling" journalism that's occurring now does it ?

 

Lets kill two birds with the same stone...

 

In 2007 there were 285,200 births registered in Australia (to make things easy lets round that up to 300,000)

 

Government fund 6 months maternity leave (Australia women have been demanding this for years, and it's a vote winner)

 

While I accept it's not a 1:1 ratio, the scheme will create a employment hole. This hole will at least half fill the predicted rise in "unemployment".

 

As for the other half of the holeÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¦ well we need to accept the good times and the bad.

 

Cheers

Matt

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I'm more concerned about the quality rather than the quantitative aspects of that figure. Unemployment, or rather the natural rate of the prior, given standing macroeconomic conditions is suppose to be a measure of temporary displacement. It's not so much an indicator of x% of the economy that are unemployed; rather, it should be recognition of x% of the workforce that are currently in a transitional phase between jobs and industries at any one point in time. It comprises of people currently in the workforce seeking new employment and whom, for whatever reason, have left their previous appointments. It also consists of people whom have never worked in their lives, or have worked negligbly, but nevertheless contributes to the health of the economy via welfare-aided consumption and perhaps some degree of volunteering. Then there's the third category - those newly inaugurated into adulthood and/or have otherwise joined the workforce after graduation from school/TAFE/university etc.

 

This final category is the one that's of most interest. First of all, I believe that those within this subset of the demography are most susceptible to the effects of chronic unemployment. Whereas those already in the workforce have the ability to demonstrate applied knowledge and practical noesis, the newly inaugurated have little other than some paperwork which indicate however many years of education and perhaps a loose collection of part-time and casual jobs in-between. All things considered equally, the quality of one's history makes all the difference. An academic transcript is no competition for a veritable employment track record. Such, I suspect, being one of the reasons why our transitory unemployment rate is taking on a more permanent and persistent nature. The employed workforce is aging partly because companies regard proven experience as being the preferable choice over uninitiated "greenfield"ism. There's an entire generation of skilled yet idle potential residing in the community whom have been firing their resumes left, right and centre.

 

As new entrants pile on and the incumbents retire, will companies expand their investment in graduate programs or will they merely pay their meagre lip service whilst turning their sights to foreign sources?

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  • 2 months later...

"As for the other half of the holeÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¦ well we need to accept the good times and the bad.

 

Cheers

Matt"

 

 

You simply cannot have "half of a hole". You've either got a whole hole or no hole !!!!!

 

 

 

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  • 4 months later...

Seems like Access Economics have changed their tune from a few months ago when they were predicting all gloom and doom - I guess they will change their tune again when the next set of numbers come out, and so on and so on................

 

<h2 class="cN-headingPage prepend-5 span-11 last">Economy set to defy gloom</h2> Peter Martin July 21, 2009 AUSTRALIA is set to emerge from its downturn a year earlier than forecast and with far fewer people losing their jobs, according to leading forecaster Access Economics.

 

http://business.theage.com.au/business/eco...90720-dqt5.html

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