Jump to content

The White Elephant Forum


nohoper

Recommended Posts

sorry NH, I guess your shorts already been run over by now! so i just give some more info

=====

ChinaÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢s top economic planners on Thursday approved another batch of major infrastructure-investment projects, bolstering the more than two dozen subway and urban-rail initiatives announced a day earlier. In the latest round of Keynesian-style stimulus designed to rekindle economic growth, the National Development and Reform Commission gave the go-ahead to 13 highway projects and other municipal and port projects, according to reports citing documents posted on the commissionÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢s website.

 

Estimates on the size of the stimulus varied, with some reports putting the total number of projects at 20, while a separate report by Reuters had the figure at 30.

 

The measures follow WednesdayÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢s announcement of 25 new rail projects worth an estimated 800 billion yuan ($127 billion) over the next three to eight years. See related story on ChinaÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢s new rail initiatives

-------

 

We need more information to calculate the exact stimulus spending in 2012 and 2013, but at least the central government choose to announce those urban transit projects in this months with some urgency,ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚ Lu said.

====http://www.marketwatch.com/story/china-adds-highways-to-stimulus-plan-2012-09-06

 

===================================

 

think of how many ton of steel they will need to build all these things!! shanghai market up over 4% at moment, i guess today is the day that their local market call it "volcano eruption" day!

 

 

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 2.6k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

eb,

 

FMG short? :) Don't take that seriously. On top of that I have money management, remember? :sleep: I can never lose with this baby sitting by my side, gotta tell ya. In any case my bet the current FMG bounce will not last... yeah, call me pigheaded if you like.

 

Also, I am keeping an open mind on all the miners since I don't have any position on any of them at all. I like this flexibility, which is fine in my way of thinking.

 

Back to steel consumption, my attitude is still wait and see. One thing I am quite fixated on is simply this -- the consumption has peaked and will not be repeated. What remains is how much lower will it be moving forward.

 

Cheers.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

post-4765-1347062777_thumb.jpg

** the AsiaPac bourses all shown great reaction to the Chinese impending stimulus spending last night comparing to other regions, which tells a lot, in a sense I would take that to reflect the much closer economic dependency of the smaller Asian nations on the Chinese econ engine... yes I know, the previous Chinese stimulus had been wasteful, yes, it's bad, yes it's out of control, yes, it's whatever the naysayers want it to be and is mainly bad I know. But here's this fundamental difference between Chinese QE vs the European or the American QE -- over there after numerous QEs, they got shitall nothing -- they got more unemployment, facing more economic pressure and are now facing recession, etc; while this part of the world, the "experience" is totally different -- they got inflation and there are still growth albeit much smaller -- what does that tell ya?

 

Who cares? Who cares about the difference? All it matters is at this point the Chinese and the wider Asian markets are reacting positively and that potentially could translate into a new phase of growth, possibly within this region, which in my view is quite critical. Of course, all these could still come to nothing, let's not kid ourselves, but still I would like to test my own thesis, and that is whatever is happening in the western markets, no matter how much it influences the ASX, they are mostly short-termish and fluffy, a reflection of cheap money and liquidity movements and nothing else. If you like, it's traders vs traders, gamblers vs gamblers, money shifting around within a casino, it's all a game.

 

While a Chinese market rebound would herald a much more sustained market rally as it reflects real money and real stimulus and the economic growth will be more encompassing and is not just about stock+derivative traders. If you like the Asian market rally is "more real" as a reflection and hope on more economic activities and it in turn would help lift the economic activities of this country... well, this my thesis and my hope any way. Call me a fool later when it doesn't pan out ok? :)

 

post-4765-1347062702_thumb.jpg

** back to the "real world" and back to the io miners and the big 3, here's a daily chart I posted not too long ago, and here's an update -- what do you reckon? How significant is the recent drop in price and the subsequent rebounds in all three? Within a 15 months timeline, do you reckon the bounce in price would signify a full recovery? Or just a short term recover?

 

post-4765-1347064948_thumb.jpg

** here's the same chart, but "zoomed" in to give a closer look at the individual candle sticks, what do you reckon? I think for RIO and BHP, the big "R"esistance line is still significant. Until the resistance is overcome, I would say any claim on io full recovery is less than convincing.

 

As for FMG, it is a different kettle of fish altogether, mainly due to its own unique predicament. Based on chart, I would take its recent high volume (last 3 days) as a good thing. It has that look of a capitulation where the it seems to indicate the bears+sellers had exhausted their selling with the subsequent high volume rebound. If the bulls+buyers can maintain their momentum with more buying and close the gap, which is quite significant, it would make the case of a recovery more convincing. But the real test is where the big "S" line lies -- they need to push the price back up that line or face the wrath of the faithless and their selling and would go through another round of tussle, in the process building a base slowly...

post-4765-1347062716_thumb.jpg

Link to comment
Share on other sites

post-4765-1347242198_thumb.jpg

 

Big4 - daily chart+intraday: just in case you are still rejoicing over the io miners' rebound, here's a reminder -- don't forget your banks - they are all showing short term topping pattern except NAB. Serious correction has not happened yet but my gut feel is it won't take much to push them over. So, it will be decision time soon. The earlier you are prepared, the better. Coming back to NAB, this one is behaving a bit like a beast, instead of following the pack, it shows a pretty well formed bullish flag so who knows it might just go against the norm one day... best see this as a risk than good fortune in my view coz NAB is not without its worry.

 

** next, back to the farm and xenophobia on foreign investment..., Clancy Yeates is being too kind too nice and too gentle to pick at some others' mental wound, but let's face it -- there are flaws somewhere and they just have to look deep into the mirror and analyse their own psyche, and possibly, ego; other than these yeah I guess it's all about money for nothing and chicks are free thingy. Also it's worth their while to remember some of the earlier lessons. And let's take MMX as an example: at one time it was selling at 2.00 based on my record, do you know how much it is selling now? 4.1c!

 

Great result. I know its price doesn't show what's actually happening, but it serves to remind some people this money truth -- it doesn't stay around waiting for you to pick your nose. If you don't grab the opportunity, it will flow elsewhere. The worst kind of outcome is to see this good money flowing over to the other part of the world, possibly in Africa, or S.America, or Central Asia, whatever and becomes some others' fortune. While you hold on to your bankrupt piece of unproductive land... sure, keep your farm and keep your family jewel and feel good about it and hope that one day it doesn't become another MMX.

 

Big mine, big deposit, big project needs big money! Likewise, large farm, esp the bankrupted variety needs a lot more to make it productive. It's not about unnecessary worry, fear, ego and nose picking. Enuf said.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Waiting for Beijing...

 

China's official statistics bureau reported on Friday that consumer price inflation is only around 2% per year. It's almost certainly higher than this. And in the event, it's higher than 1.8% reported last time. Food prices were up 3.4%. Food prices up, producer prices down, quandary present and correct! The real root of the problem is, well, the whole model that puts politics before profits. You can't allocate scarce resources, capital, and labour to meet purely political goals. Not only is it unfree, in philosophical terms, it suppresses the natural price signals that tell producers what to produce based on what people want and need.

 

This is precisely the point Greg made in China's Bust. An article in today's FT reports that 574 Chinese companies had negative cash flow from operating activities in the June quarter, according to data from S&P Capital IQ. It's hard to run a business if you have more money going out than coming in. The only way to do it is to borrow money...

 

** if you were to replace the word "China" or "Chinese " with "the USA" or "American" I'd bet you will find the above is just as apt to describe what is happening in this American's home country. And here lies the problem -- most Americans talk as if their own country is squeaky clean in terms of freedom and/or economic freedom, or exemplary in running an efficient+effective economy -- the truth is, it's far from it. And the truth is most of these self righteous Americans are fooling themselves into this self delusional view of themselves in terms of economic achievement. If only they can/could count and start taking stock of what had really happened to their economy and their political situation -- they are both highly dysfunctional!

 

Or Bernanke wouldn't be running his QE program as if there's no tomorrow. Or their politics wouldn't be so polarised to the extent that some part of their population is willing to denigrate their own president, for the fact that he is a black man, and by raising the absurd question on the validity of his birth certificate!

 

Politically, the lobbyist system places profits and politics before economics, the partisanship in the system is making sure that there's no compromise in budget and deficit control, the politicians are putting power and self interest ahead of national interest, so much so that the runaway debt deficits are now forcing the system towards the fiscal cliff -- how in the world he could point his finger at the Chinese system without feeling a tinge of embarrassment?

 

... for someone whose own country's economy is busted with huge deficit + debt, with high unemployment... may be he should start by describing how "free" or "unfree" the American economy in allocating resources. Are they mostly utilised in food stamps and or tax free giveaways to the rich and the millionaires?

 

Sheesh!

 

ps: if you are going to pay for the "China's bust" crap they are flogging, here's what you should do -- first pin them down by asking them when will it happen -- if it happens within a year, pay them 10% first and tell them when it actually happens you will mail them the rest of 90%. If it doesn't happen within 5 years, tell them to return your 10%. If it doesn't happen in 10 years, ask them to pay you a fee+50% more to read their crap! And my bet is they probably don't have a clue when China's bust will happen! Coz if they are not blind, it probably won't happen in another 15-20 years time as this is the time the rest of the world would take to recover from the current doldrums.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

So talking to a mate who sells a consumable to miners that is required for drilling.

 

He noticed, looking back at AU sales that about 2 months ago there was a sudden decline in orders for product. He sells into Austalasia so it really wasn't immediately obvious local sales dried up. A few inquiries suggest drilling has stopped rather than competition offering an alternate supply.

 

I will dig a little deeper. (no pun intended)

 

Hope this helps.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Australia is becoming a sovereign risk? &... Australia: Nil all...

 

** funny that the above should appear, the immediate echo that appears in my mind is -- doesn't this sound like the banks telling everyone that they are too too big to fail? That's how you win an argument if you are losing -- you build up the the fear and next you hit them with fury and threat! :devilsmiley:

 

So here's the next question: will all the big miners take their bats, sulk all the way home? Doubt it! They will stay around for as long as there are good profits to be made! Those that cried the loudest are usually the ones that have most to lose. Those mines that got closed down are the ones that are not making money...

 

...but the profitable ones? Well, read their lips -- somehow it sounds like "no freaking way!"... politics is one thing, profit is another -- no one in their sensible mind will want to cut off their own limps, and profit.

 

So yeah, I like it -- it's about time Australia starts to lock in some profit for Australians and not sending it away as some kind of forex numbers in some foreigners' accounts!

 

** next, back to RG's write-up, there is a glaring point worth noting -- don't you hate populist politics? Well, that's the price Australia has got to pay by becoming too Americanised! Too bad and yeah, learn to deal with it!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Iron ore price decline jeopardises Oakajee: analyst...

 

** really? I wonder. In 2010 the io price was not this bad. In 2011, it wasn't this bad either. But already by then there were bad news all round. The project was delayed and then more... truth is "they" don't have enough money, or capital, or cash, or $$, the usual "no money no talk" fact of life matter. Next, even assuming they somehow managed to complete the project, "they" are not sure if there will be enough demand to absorb the production, another fact of life matter -- you need two hands to clap -- if you wanna keep the Chinese out just make sure you can find an alternate market that can absorb what you produced!

 

And now? One word -- STUFFED!

 

Everybody loses!

 

... and here lies the lesson on Cubbie Station, so let's wait and see if money for nothing is for real! :devilsmiley:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

×
×
  • Create New...