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Subject: China's economy growing 8 percent next 5 years


China's economy is expected to grow 8 percent annually over the next five years, the State Council Development and Research Center predicted.

Wang Mengkui, director of the center, said the next five years will be a "golden time" for China 's economic development, citing strength in materials and technology, a large domestic market, an abundant labor force and a stable society as the major driving force for economic development.

Wang called unemployment, income gaps, social security problems and population transferring "hidden problems" threatening China's economic development.

China will continue to move towards industrialization and urbanization, and try to blend into the world economic system gradually, he said.

(Roydan Feb. 14)

Reporter: Roydan




Higher resource prices are here to stay!



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Supporters of the super cycle thesis for commodities have all the reasons in the world to stay bullish

now that the latest leading indicator data from the OECD has shown that December 2004 was the

second consecutive month in which the global lead indicator rose.


According to Macquarie, one of the supporters

of the thesis, this indicates that the deceleration

in global economic growth rates may end by

mid-2005, opening the way to a pick-up in global

demand for metals and other base materials,

and thus to further price rises.


More importantly, the commodity specialists

point out, the level at which the lead indicator has

bottomed out appears to be the highest since the

early 1960s. And that, obviously, is what it is all

about in the super cycle atmosphere.


Of equal interest, some commentators have

expressed serious concerns that the metal price

cycle bull market may be ending soon because

the US has moved towards a tightening bias.

Macquarie, however, argues that rising US

interest rates in the past have always been

associated with rising metal prices and that the top of the price cycle historically occurs when interest

rates start falling. The chart above supports this.




Click to download the magazine, the article & chart are on page 26.


The 20 year chart they have drawn is simple to read & hard to argue with.


All we need now is for the U.S.A to keep raising interest rates. A very likely scenario imo.




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  • 3 weeks later...

Resources rally on BHP bid



THE resources sector has rallied today on the back of BHP Billiton's cash bid for WMC Resources as well as substantial rises in the prices of gold and oil overnight.


WMC shares rose 50 cents or 6.9 per cent to $7.97 by 1240 AEDT as investors bet on a rival bidder entering the market.


The stock was the highest traded by volume on the ASX with 75.55 million shares changing hands worth $602.256 million.


BHP Billiton shares were also higher gaining 53 cents or 2.8 per cent to $19.38.


Optimism was spread across the commodity sector with Minara Resources Ltd gaining 11 cents or 5.3 per cent to $2.18.


Iluka Resources jumped 16 cents or 2.7 per cent to $6.09 and Alumina Ltd lifted 11 cents to $6.26.


Analysts said the BHP Billiton bid boosted confidence the commodity cycle would remain "strong for longer" and meant another injection of cash into the sector was likely.


"The cash offer means (WMC investors) take the money and walk, and they will now use the cash to reinvest into the market," Macquarie Equities divisional director Lucinda Chan said.


She said with commodity prices still strong it was likely the investment would go back into the sector.


"On the back of this deal it allows the whole commodity sector to get a lot more rallying in it as well," Ms Chan said.


CommSec Securities analyst Peter Harris said he believed an $8.00 a share bid for WMC would hold value for BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto Ltd, and a rival bid was still well and truly on the cards.






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In reply to: tom924 on Wednesday 09/03/05 02:24pm



Anybody interested in an Exploration Licence with an initial drill section 10 metres going 0.196% Molybdenum near surface.Thats equivalent to about 11g/t gold in dollar terms.


Contact me here.

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In reply to: bunny on Wednesday 09/03/05 04:14pm

Hey Bunny,

Got any details as to :-


Primary target grades, ie copper, tin/tungsten?

How did the other holes go,etc

Mail me direct if you want confidentiality-ie use the PM function next to your nic up top!


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In reply to: tastarga on Wednesday 09/03/05 06:21pm


Hi Tastarga,


The leases are in the southern Lachlan Fold Belt in NE Victoria.They have several positive hits for Mo.Historical production of about 340t of MoS2.Leases have defined geochem,magnetic,IP and resistivity anomalies.


Early days yet.Am getting together an information kit.It will include most previous work and a few academic papers.


If you send me an address I will send it to you when ready.If you want to stay anonymous line it up with your local post office and I'll send it there when ready.


Let me know either way.





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  • 2 months later...

In reply to: tom924 on Wednesday 09/03/05 02:24pm

Anyone interested in a granted EL in Southern NSW with geochem annomalies over an extensive area (7 X 5 km apprx.) of arillic alteration interpreted as epithermal with history of gold production.


The Time Lord

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In reply to: bunny on Monday 30/05/05 07:22pm

Whats the story? my email address is available under my Nickname through sharescence.


Sorry, didn't read the post earlier.




Copper ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒÂ¢Ãƒ¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡ÃƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ Jun 02, 11:39

Bid/Ask 1.5209 - 1.5214

Change +0.0325 +2.18%

Low/High 1.4752 - 1.5300



Nickel ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒÂ¢Ãƒ¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡ÃƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ Jun 02, 11:29

Bid/Ask 7.8007 - 7.8075

Change +0.1603 +2.10%

Low/High 7.5951 - 7.8416



Aluminum ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒÂ¢Ãƒ¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡ÃƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ Jun 02, 11:39

Bid/Ask 0.8022 - 0.8024

Change +0.0110 +1.39%

Low/High 0.7890 - 0.8069



Zinc ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒÂ¢Ãƒ¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡ÃƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ Jun 02, 11:39

Bid/Ask 0.5972 - 0.5977

Change +0.0197 +3.40%

Low/High 0.5776 - 0.6000



Lead ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒÂ¢Ãƒ¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡ÃƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ Jun 02, 11:39

Bid/Ask 0.4593 - 0.4597

Change +0.0043 +0.95%

Low/High 0.4531 - 0.4606



closes in 1 hr. 42 mins.

Jun 02, 2005 11:47 NY Time

Bid/Ask 421.10 - 421.60

Low/High 415.70 - 422.80

Change +6.00 +1.45%

30daychg -13.30 -3.06%

1year chg +26.00 +6.58%


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BHP won't reopen Tintaya




Friday, June 03, 2005

BHP Billiton has refused to re-open the 90,000 tonne copper per annum Tintaya mine in Peru because it cannot guarantee the safety of all of its workforce.


Government officials had previously said they expected the mine to re-start operations at the end of the week after they had urged for calm from local residents complaining about a lack of spending on social infrastructure.


Tintaya vice-president, Lucio Rios, was quoted by Reuters as telling a Peruvian radio station that "the operations are still paralysed, as we consider that the conditions aren't right to guarantee the security of our operations and personnel."


Protestors are demanding an increase in social spending from $US1.5 million to $US20 million.



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  • 4 years later...

Timing A Stainless Steel Recovery


It's been a tough twelve months for stainless steel. Steel industry consultant MEPS reports that from August 2008 to now transaction values for cold rolled coil type 304 stainless steel in North America were down by approximately 60%, by 52% in Europe and by 47% in Asia. Not a good year by any standards.

When LME nickel prices fell below US$10,000 per ton and both chromium and molybdenum were also down more than 70% by April, most stainless steel buyers began to pull out of the market en masse. This saw holders of stock rush to empty their warehouses as the value of their inventories collapsed.

By this point even drastic price cutting could do little to encourage any real support for purchase volumes.

As a result, steel mills the world over slashed output in hopes of trying to stabilise the market. The good news is that all of the production cuts and de-stocking that came along as a result of the falling volumes are finally starting to bite.

At the end of the last quarter, MEPS reports that stock levels at both distributors and end-users were very low, while input costs also began to rise. At the same time, stainless steel end user sectors like the automotive industry also started to recover. The combination of these factors have helped mills increase stainless sales over the past three months, according to the report from MEPS.

So while in historic terms, consumption is still far from healthy levels, MEPS expects end-user customers to keep increasing order volumes to begin to slowly start filling the gaps in their sold down inventories.

The problem is that at the same time, rising prices for nickel, chromium and molybdenum and a solid benchmark price for steel will continue to put upward pressure on stainless prices in the months ahead. And with MEPS expecting consumption to remain reasonably low for the rest of the year, it will be a while yet before we see a real increase in prices.

The industry consultant reasons that neither Europe nor the US are likely to build any meaningful levels inventory in the run up to the calendar year end. So with production in all regions expected to rise over the fourth quarter of 2009 in response to an improving macro outlook, MEPS fears that this could lead to oversupply and thus weaker prices for the last few months of the year.

This is all short-term concern, as MEPS is another one that buys into the current global recovery story. The consultant expects that the current improvement in global economic conditions will be the first steps on the road to recovery for stainless steel.

In fact, MEPS is confident credit availability will increase as the credit crisis wears off and this will filter through to less strained industrial balance sheet and improved sales across the steel industry.

On top of that, MEPS expects ongoing Government stimulus projects around the world will also provide a boost for stainless demand. And if recent improvements in consumer spending are able to be maintained, they too should provide support, especially for sales into in the appliance manufacturing sector.

It goes without saying that a continuation of this type of broad-based macro improvement will be the real cornerstone of any recovery for stainless steel, as it will give distributors enough confidence to really start building up inventories again.

With this all yet to flow though, MEPS reckons we're still more than a few months off of a real recovery and forecasts that stainless steel prices will begin to rise early in 2010, with advances expected to continue up to mid-year.




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