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The formatting is a little bad but the the following table shows forecasts for the second quarter for metals. The full article can be found at by clicking here. Apologies for the pop-up adverts but Bloomberg persists with them.


Second-Quarter Average Price

Company Copper Aluminum Nickel Tin Lead Zinc


Standard Bank 2,600 1,625 14,000 7,000 800 1,050

Barclays Capital 3,200 1,750 15,000 9,000 850 1,200

Prudential-Bache 3,100 1,600 13,000 7,500 775 1,050

Credit Lyonnais 2,650 1,675 13,500 725 1,075

Societe Generale 2,975 1,600 15,875 7,715 840 1,115

Metal Bulletin 2,950 1,585 13,500 7,230 880 1,050

Macquarie Bank 3,086 1,808 15,432 8,598 904 1,146

Goldman Sachs 2,777 1,654 13,382 1,014

Mitsui 2,950 1,705 14,200 8,250 1,120


Median 2,950 1,654 14,000 7,715 840 1,075

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Hi guys,


Base metals all up tonight except Lead.


Anyway I asked about Juan re-evalution a few months ago with limited replies.


Anyone have any thoughts?


From this page,




"Still, there are some caveats of course. One big change is that Chinese authorities seem likely to change the currency peg from the dollar to a basket of currencies later this year. The result will probably be a stronger currency, something exporters into the country would normally relish. Yet the result of a change this large is hard to predict precisely."


I'd have to think a stronger chinese currency in the short term would increase Base metal prices.


If it happens before the end of the year even better.



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  • 2 months later...

OH dear,

Metals are sinking like, well, metals.

If Matt had a topic called "University of Hard Knocks", I'd post:

If you ever fall in love with anything on the stock market, just remember that you can divorce him, her, it with a few keyboard clicks and never , ever, hear anything again.

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In reply to: dali on Wednesday 13/10/04 10:01pm

Base metal prices are coming back up bigger & better than ever.


Maybe not tommorow but before the end of the year(the month?).


Tonights correction makes base metals cheap again.


Base metal prices will not be cheap for long so watch the share prices of Base metal producers.


Quick easy profits will be made by many over the next few days & weeks.


Will you be one of them???



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In reply to: tom924 on Wednesday 13/10/04 10:11pm

That's why I'm not a day trader. I don't need the stress.

The bigger factors may be coming into play?

The Aussie market is in the Great China Dream syndrome.

Sharp corrections remind me of the old October syndrome.

Will be watching very closely. But, I've been wrong many times before.

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Fundamentals haven't changed.


When there is not 1 tonne of Cooper,Nickel or any other base metal in LME warehouses as could easy be the case. Let the buyers whinge about overvalued base metal prices.


Sure Base metals are have been overvalued lately.


When there are no base metals left to buy they(the buyers) can complain how we are all better off without them.


They can can celebrate they do not need to buy base metals anymore. No base metals will exist for them to buy.


They(the buyers) can all go & join other industries or apply for government benefits.


They will be much happier??


Base metal prices will rally again very soon(days I suspect).


I believe the correction in prices is just that.


A correction.


New all time highs in base metal prices will be reached in months.


time to check out base metal producer stocks.



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In reply to: tom924 on Wednesday 13/10/04 10:45pm

Correct Tom, fundamentals have not changed.

Hedge fund activity caused last nights sell off coupled with computer trading.

Look at the base metal prces this time last month-Cu was $1.25 lb, with last nights sell off it is still $1.34, Ni was $5.50 -it is now $6.05!

Sure it will spook the market, but there is still a production deficit-prices will firm again pretty soon.

Looks like a buying opportunity for the longer term investors!


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METALS ... were sharply lower, especially the LMEs. Spot gold

fell $1.90 to $413.20 and the active December month lost $2 to $414.60

oz on COMEX. Spot silver slumped 15.5c to $6.878 oz, making a two-day

loss of 35.2c. October platinum dropped $7.10 to $835.80 oz on NYMEX.

New York October copper fell 16c to 129.30c lb.

Losses on the LME closing prices on the three-month contracts

were massive. Copper was $2770 tonne, tin $8550, lead $895, zinc $1035,

aluminium $1715 and nickel $13,200 tonne.

LME three-month official bid prices were hammered. Copper fell

$149.50 to $2908 tonne, lead $38 to $921, zinc $54.50 to $1095.50 and

tin $445 to $8689. Nickel slumped $2110 to $13,645 and aluminium ended

$107 behind at $1701 tonne.

Analysts reported that New York copper had the biggest slump in

14 years, on concern that a slowing economy in China will erode demand

that led to a 15-year high in prices last week. Copper usage in China,

the world's biggest buyer, fell 21 per cent in July from a year earlier.

On the LME nickel prices fell the most in 16 years, and

aluminum, zinc, lead and tin also retreated.

OIL ... settled $1.13 higher at $53.64 barrel on the November

crude contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange, regaining all of

yesterday's downturn. High was $53.95 and low $51.50.

Early in the session, a better energy report pushed prices lower

on profit-taking but as the perception of higher crude prices increased

the price of crude took off again on the current supply problems of

producing enough oil to satisfy demand for winter heating. The market

has already factored in the uncertainty surrounding the sharp downturn

in Gulf supplies due to the damage caused by hurricane Ivan and

industrial troubles in Nigeria and political unrest in Iraq.

The CRB index fell 1.86 to 282.56.


from RWE Australian Business News

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