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crap flower.

 

Hi Mick, you cant just dismiss something as crap, just because you cant see the causal link. Normally when a currency gets debased its value against most other currencies alters. I dont know why the EURO is special case, but ever since the EURO crisis got serious the EURO moves more or less in lockstep with gold in USD, instead of oppositely. Cant explain it, but crap it is not.

 

Try this Miningweb link by way of explanation/reasoning, written way back in May.

 

Put the charts up originally to demonstrate this, but it was obviously lost on you.

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http://www.google.com.au/url?sa=t&rct=...2I1DW4O4M5pWj6w

 

For many years now gold and silver -by its pattern of following gold wherever it goes- have been treated by traders, investors and central banks as a 'counter to the U.S. dollar' and quite rightly so; this definition, however, applies primarily to the long-term value of the dollar and not simply to the daily gyrations of the dollar's exchange rate.For many months now, gold and silver have not simply acted as a counter to the dollar but linked on a day-to-day basis with the euro. It's reasonable, one would think, for them to have that relationship because the euro is the second most important currency in the world. But when the euro itself has problems with its value then the relationship must surely become suspect?

 

What we've seen lately is gold and silver prices moving with (and often faster, both ways) than the euro, but the link remain solid. With concern for the future gold and silver prices in mind, it's time to examine this relationship to see where it's taking these precious metals. With the Eurozone crisis moving to potential 'runs' on Greek and Spanish banks, the future of the euro is now on the line. A look at a precipitous fall in the euro and the potential for gold and silver to follow is warranted. Investors should be prepared for very volatile and surprising gold and silver price moves.

 

etc etc etc

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Flower, you couldn't recognise a causal relationship if it came gift wrapped with its name on it.

 

You have stated among others.

1. You cannot have a strong currency without high interest rates. I wasn't the only person who shot that one down.

2. You said that countries that perform QE will have their currency depreciate. I pointed out that we have just had an instance

where it did not happen.

 

I posted no causal relationships. You tried to make one. Not me.

 

 

 

Mick

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  • 8 months later...
and where the AUD/EUR exchange rate is going in the near future (ie for aussie travellers chasing the sun this winter)

 

In retrospect IMO the best time to have bought EURO for a trip this year was probably in late March, you will need to watch things closely now for any forward purchases, depending on intended departure dates.

 

My bet is that this rate should now gradually strengthen again.

post-20731-1369113258_thumb.jpg

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  • 2 months later...

After USD I believe EURO will have their day in the long run.

 

I am bullish on EURO in the long run and it will shine like AUD and NZD. Next 18 months is very crucial for EURO, AUD, NZD and emerging market currencies.

 

EURO and emerging market currencies will appreciate against NZD, AUD in the medium run.

 

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.

 

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Hi marketwinner.

You state....."EURO and emerging market currencies will appreciate against NZD, AUD in the medium run."

 

If you look through this thread,there were posters buying the Euro (or bailing out of AUD) months ago.That was,imo,when the money was there to be made.At current AUD/EURO I think the upside for the EURO is not worth the risk. Once the brokers/Banks/Newsletters start calling for the EURO to go lower against AUD it is probably best to go long AUD.As Paul Keating once said

"the dogs are barking but the caravan left weeks ago" (when was the last witticism by Tony or Kev?)

 

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Hi Wren

 

Short term., medium tern and long term depend on the investor's personal preferences, as well as on the asset class under consideration.

 

My short term in less than one year.

My medium term is between one year to five year (For some it is between five to ten years)

My long term in more than five years (10 year is ideal for me)

 

I expect both NZD and AUD will go down against basket of currencies in the medium run. Even during next 12 months both NZD and AUD can go down against basket of currencies. We need to do some study to identify trend. Our friend should be intermediate trend.

 

We will have currency crisis at different time at difference places in the coming two decades. We should have better risk management systems in our all type of investments.

 

When I analyse assets such as commodity, stocks, currency I like to analyse five to 10 year horizon now. What happened in the past will happen again and again in a different manner.

 

By analysing currency and commodity market we can find attractive investment opportunities.

 

We have to accept that both NZD and AUD are two of the mostly overpriced currencies in the world now.

 

In advance even I expected gold crisis in addition to currency crisis. Now India has to solve two things. Their gold and their currency. Their rupee will stabilize soon. To happen that their gold import should come down. These types of cycles will have again and again. I believe Indian rupee will go up again just like some East Asian currencies in the past.

 

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.

 

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From the daily reckoning

 

U.S. Global's portfolio manager Tim Steinle is usually soft-spoken and mild mannered, so our ears perked up when he recently belted out, "Europe is rocking!"

 

After a lengthy period of stagnant growth and lackluster results, the gradual crescendo of improving economic data that have been coming out of Europe lately certainly command attention.

 

As our resident expert on the European economy, Tim has been listing several economic indicators that were turning positive during the investment team's morning meetings. While our entire team keeps track of the economic data and political policies of all the developed G-7 and emerging E-7 countries in the world, Tim keeps his finger on the pulse of European countries at all times in his hunt for outsized opportunities for the Emerging Europe Fund (EUROX).

 

I have taken positions in two euro stocks. VW and Red Electrica.I expect capital gain as well as currency gains.If the Fed turns off the spigot, money will be taken out of the US Stock market, and the Euro will be one of those favoured.

 

Mick

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If the Fed turns off the spigot, money will be taken out of the US Stock market, and the Euro will be one of those favoured.

 

Hi Mick, we are about 48 hours away (via the minutes of the last FOMC meeting due out Wednesday US time) from discovering if the FED will in fact turn off that spigot at their next meeting, IMO they will NOT even indicate that QE will even be eased for the simple reason the US economy and the USD are not strong enough.

 

We will find out soon enough whose bet will pay off, long EURO short gold or vice versa :icon14:

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"or the simple reason the US economy and the USD are not strong enough."

 

So flower,you are saying the that the Fed will not raise interest rates because the USD and US economy are not strong enough. This something of mixed metaphor from an economic perspective ,something you tend to specialise in.Do you actually think the Fed would raise rates to weaken the USD?

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