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If the truth is inconvenient ... just lie !!


kahuna1

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The US fed admitting official US unemployment will reach 9% in 2009 only tells part of the story since the way they measure this is understating the real employment or should I say unemployment by around 5%. Some state when you have been unemployed for more than 3 months ... you are no longer counted as unemployed.

 

This bit is so true and it is what is most scary because while Kahuna says you're not counted as unemployed, the fact of the matter is you are just not counted...anywhere.

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K1, must say it great to hear from you!....

 

Yes, Im usually a bit a bear, compared to most I guess anyway.

 

but the last four months...from that october bear forward.....OMG it has been worse than I imagined....I understood how values could fall, but how this has effected the general economy has me worried....and many say we are still lagging the US by 18 months....

 

How bad will it get?? I don't know, but I do know this. My retirement will be set back several years by all this :grrr: LOL

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you're not counted as unemployed, the fact of the matter is you are just not counted...anywhere.

 

And this makes no account for all the illegal emigre's that cross over from Mexico or any other Latin American country who work for pennies in the fields and sweat shops.

 

Those people aren't doucmented, aren't counted or recognized anywhere but still make up a significant percentage of the workforce.

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This article is well worth the read in my view

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com...ical-model.html

 

Initially I thought the wealthier creditor nations would hold up the best. But the exact opposite seems to be occurring initially. Their exports have collapsed and with it a huge part of their economy. Dubai, yikes. Japan looks like near depression. China, depends you believe, but there must be a lot of idle factories. Even Germany's GDP was worse compared to other like euro countries.

 

Trust and confidence just seem to be out the window and its hard to see it coming back any time soon. If you're 50 to 60 years, you've probably just seen the super near halve. A comfortable retirement to a very basic one. Debt is going to be repaid faster and savings increased. The younger age group with a decent mortgage is seeing job cuts and will likely increase savings as well. A fair chunk of the ASX has come for capital. Just about everyone but first-home owners & Kev wants to get rid of debt pronto.

Similar overseas but even worse. Even if you wanted to borrow, the asset you will borrow against has fallen in value, the banks have tightened up (probably to the other extreme) and they have massive losses on the books. Government spending just can't replace that.....

 

Can't believe I agree on something with Steve Keen :o

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Wouldn't want to be accused of being optimistic but found this list of positives from the US *

The Conference Board's index of leading economic indicators has risen for two months in a row.

*

Producer prices have increased for two straight months.

*

Consumer prices rose in January -- the first monthly gain in six months.

*

The Baltic Dry Index, which measures the cost of shipping key raw materials like copper, steel and iron, has more than doubled from its recent lows.

*

Existing-home sales rose in December, and participants in our weekly survey think that another rise took place in January.

*

Pending home sales went up in December.

*

Builders' confidence inched up this month.

*

Thanks to lower interest rates, applications for both new mortgages and refinancings of existing mortgages are rising.

*

Real hourly earnings rose 4.5% in December following a 3.3% increase in November.

*

An index of consumer expectations rose in January.

*

Retail sales shot up by 1% in January -- the first monthly rise since June.

*

The decline in consumer credit moderated in the latest month.

*

New orders for consumer and nonmilitary capital goods went up in January.

*

The ISM index of manufacturing went up last month.

*

The ISM index of services rose last month for the second month in a row.

*

The money supply is soaring, a sign that there's plenty of liquidity in the economy.

*

The 3-month London interbank offered rate, a measure of banks' willingness to lend to each other, has dropped to 1.2% from close to 5% a number of weeks ago.

*

Other measures of the state of the financial markets, like the TED spread and the 2-year swap spread are down, as well.

*

Prices of credit default swaps for banks have fallen from their peaks.

*

The corporate-bond markets are thawing out, too; some $127 billion in dollar-denominated debt was issued in January, the most for any month since last May.

*

Some securities on banks' books are starting to recover in value.

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I can pick the crap out of the majority of those points, but I won't as I cannot be be fagged digging up the info to support counter balancing most of them, some of what is stated is true but the rational behind as to why, shows that it is by no means any sort of meaningful recovery.

 

At the end of the day, if you believe that all is well - invest to your heart content.

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