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If the truth is inconvenient ... just lie !!


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Just in from casey, talking about the real US inflation rate:


"Today's 1.1% inflation calculates out to 14% a year, which is about what Americans have been experiencing, and already know without believing the words of our government that inflation is contained. The CPI numbers have not been properly calculated. This monthÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢s 6.6% inflation for energy is, annualized, about 100% compounded. Yesterday's 1.8% Producer Price Index annualizes to 24%. The raw materials take 6 months or so to filter through the production pipeline, so there is more inflation on the way.


The root cause of the situation is the debasing of the dollar, primarily based on government deficits. While Congress put Bernanke and Paulson on the hot seat, as well they should, Congress has its fingerprints at the crime scene. The inflation should be seen as a hidden tax, not officially levied on people but spread around as the deficits work themselves into loss of purchasing power for everyone.


This big-picture view is what has made Casey Research focus on precious metals and energy. I predicted the price of corn to jump in my August 2006 article and it is up 3 times since then. Food is our next big situation. The deficit this year is projected at a record $500B and Congress and Bernanke and Paulson are talking another $300B bailout for mortgages and Fannie and FreddieÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¦ all part of our long-held negative view on financials."


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Thought you'd like this paragraph K1


Of course, this "We're freaking doomed" idea was not mentioned at all in the BLS report, almost certainly censored out, as I distinctly remember writing to them, "Dear BLS morons, Inflation in prices that follows inflation in the money supply is here! Look at your own inflation data, you Halfwit, Lowlife, Lying Government Scumbags (HLLGS)! We're freaking doomed! And you can quote me on that! (signed) Mogambo."



worth a read







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So they are going to extend the date out to 12th August for limited naked short selling and then "Following expiration of the extended order, the Commission will proceed immediately to consideration of rulemaking which would become effective after public notice and comment. The purpose of the rulemaking is to provide additional protections against abusive naked short selling in the broader market, while allowing the legitimate short selling essential to efficient, highly liquid markets.

So more rules (read manipulation) coming.


SEC Extends Order Limiting Naked Short Selling Through August 12



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  • 3 weeks later...

In reply to: Ice9 on Friday 18/07/08 03:52pm

U.S. Subprime Crisis Not Over; Large Bank May Fail (Update1)


By Shamim Adam


Aug. 19 (Bloomberg) -- A large U.S. bank may fail in the coming months as the global credit turmoil continues to hurt financial markets, said Kenneth Rogoff of Harvard University, a former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund.


``The worst is yet to come in the U.S.,'' Rogoff said in Singapore today. ``The financial sector needs to shrink. I don't think simply having a couple of medium-sized banks and a couple of small banks going under is going to do the job. We're really going to see a consolidation even among the major investment banks.''


Rogoff's comments were reported earlier today by Reuters.


The U.S. housing slump last year sparked a credit market rout that's still rippling through the global economy. Higher interest rates are causing housing-led expansions to crumble in the U.S. and Europe, and financial institutions worldwide have posted about $500 billion of credit losses and markdowns since the start of 2007, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.


Bear Stearns Cos., the fifth-largest U.S. securities firm, collapsed in March and sold itself to JPMorgan Chase & Co. for $10 a share.


``Like any shrinking industries, we are going to see the exit of some major players,'' Rogoff said, declining to name the banks he expects to fail. ``The only way to put discipline into the system is to allow some companies to go bust. You can't just have an industry where they make giant profits or they get bailed out.''


U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson asked Congress on July 13 for emergency powers to inject ``unspecified'' amounts of government funds into mortgage-finance companies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac if necessary.


To contact the reporter on this story: Shamim Adam in Singapore at sadam2@bloomberg.net


Last Updated: August 19, 2008 05:33


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  • 1 month later...

In reply to: 328jet on Monday 14/07/08 12:15pm

Cant wait for Jim ,John and the boys when available later today.

I have been listening to them for nearly 3 years and their predictions have been so accurate. Sorry Ron Paul didnt make it further in the Pres. race. http://www.sharescene.com/html/emoticons/biggrin.gif

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  • 4 months later...

Quite amusing reading some old posts.


How the world has changed ... oil no longer US$148- and less than 33% of that. The rest .... well the chooks have come home to roost. Interesting going from annoyed and frustrated to being actually correct and gob-smacked as the rest of the world wakes up to the mess .... even I was not prepared to see how far the mess had gone and its been cascading bad news followed by more and more bad news ....


The bottom ? No idea and the GDP numbers out of Japan at minus 12.8% and steel production down 40% over the last week not good at all. Until confidence is returned and people are not watching over each others shoulders ... the bottom will not be reached. the depths of where the US banking and financial system are right now even amaze a pessimist and highly critical commentator on the US side for the last few years.


Over here yes we are in better shape ... but the woes of some countries are just getting worse and worse with some countries in the EU in an awful state .... Asian economies the same and the US spending and likely to have to add another 3-4 trillion to the pile to save their banks in even worse shape.


Find a rock ... and hide I suppose is the way to go and having hid under a rock for most of 2008 ... trying to pick a low has been both expensive and frustrating in the extreme .


As an aside .... lies and truth ... as an old player in these markets its always interesting when the chips are down how the truth seems to take a break vs reality. Sadly so many companies have come out and said all is fine only to come out sometimes days latter and admit they have no funding or their loans have been called. Having been thru many of these downturns over the years the perspective of seeing it all over again is quite sad. Of course this downturn is far far far worse than anything I have seen in my 25 or more years of full time trading.


Interesting read this thread from a historical perspective ..... I do wonder where all this debt the US and others including ourselves ends up. It for now is not the problem ... the real problem is getting people spending again and trying to avoid awful unemployment outcomes and cascading problems. The US fed admitting official US unemployment will reach 9% in 2009 only tells part of the story since the way they measure this is understating the real employment or should I say unemployment by around 5%. Some state when you have been unemployed for more than 3 months ... you are no longer counted as unemployed.


Lies and damm statistics ....


Take care and play conservative

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