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  • 4 years later...
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According to following links NZD can go down further. Suddenly some analysts including bank economists also have become bearish on NZD. As I said before NZD dollar has entered amulti-year bear cycle and the dollar (USD) has entered a multi-year bull cycle.However there can be dead cat bounce for NZD time to time. Intermediate trend for NZD is down now.

 

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10889664

 

Skids go under kiwi dollar - may fall further

 

http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-news/article.aspx?storyid=16aa07b5-7502-4020-9101-91395e7ab788

 

NZD/USD continues bear trend

 

My ideas are not a recommendation to eitherbuy or sell any security or currency. Please do your own research prior tomaking any investment decisions. Please note that I do not endorse or take responsibility for material in the above hyper-linked sites.

 

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NZD is falling even aginst YEN.

 

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10889982

NZ://http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...size]

 

 

NZ://http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...ze]

 

 

NZ[/font] dollar falls to 5-month low vs yen

My ideas are not a recommendation to eitherbuy or sell any security or currency. Please do your own research prior tomaking any investment decisions. Please note that I do not endorse or take responsibility for material in the above hyper-linked sites

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I believe NZ dollar will go down sharply due to new development. It is overpriced by 45% against USD. During last couple of years it has appreciated by more than 50% against some Asian currencies. Now this cycle has reversed and NZD will go down not only against USD but also against some Asian currencies. I cannot understand reason behind appreciation of NZD. Maybe some carry traders including speculators must have parked their money in NZD. Now one by one currency players are unwinding their positions in both AUD and NZD.When everybody tries to take out of money from both AUD and NZD these currencies can tumble to the one of the lowest levels.

 

Now analysts including global banking analysts are revising their year end target and target in 2014 for NZD.

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-06-11/wheeler-s-peashooter-finds-its-mark-as-kiwi-slumps-currencies.html

 

Wheeler's Peashooter Finds Its Mark as Kiwi Slumps:Currencies.

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions. Please note that I do not endorse or take responsibility for material in the above hyper-linked sites

 

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  • 2 weeks later...

Both NZD and AUD went up in value during the past four years due to hot overseas money. Now this money is flooding out of these countries. That so called carry trade has ended now. Since these countries floated their dollars, Australia and New Zealand have become favourite hot place for worldwide speculative money trading.

 

Speculative money flows are short term, and will flee at thesight of trouble. There is a regime shift now. AUSTRALIAN bond futures are weaker as hedge funds reacted tothe situation.

 

There are some benefits in lower NZ dollar and Australian dollar

 

1. Rising import cost will bring some relief for New Zealand and Australian -based manufacturers.

 

2. Export sector will expand. A lower dollar makes export prices more attractive for overseas buyers,boosting our domestic output.

 

3. New Zealand andAustralian companies with significant overseas operations also will benefit because the lower dollar boosts the repatriated profit of companies with overseas operations.

 

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security orcurrency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.

 

 

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  • 2 months later...

I believe among currencies NZD has more potential to fall against basket of currencies in the coming months. The kiwi mat stay under pressure in the coming years as well. So far NZD dollar was resilient and this situation may change sooner than later. Arguably one of the overpriced currencies in the world. If we compare with basket of currencies during last 10 years it is at the top of the chart.

 

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.

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  • 3 months later...
  • 3 months later...

I believe finally it is time to avoid NZD. It will go down against AUD sooner than later. I also believe NZD will have one of the biggest corrections during next 18 months. Just like stock and commodity market we could see long awaited shift in the currency cycle in the near future. Overvalued NZD could tumble against USD as well. NZD is number one over valued currency in the world followed by AUD and CAD. These three currencies could have bigger drop at any time now.

 

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.

 

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I believe sooner than later we could see end of bull market for both AUD and NZD once we see shift in the currency cycle. We could see bigger drop in NZD and AUD against USD especially during second half this year. Thereafter down trend could continue until 2016 while having volatility. In short both NZD and AUD are more vulnerable now.

 

http://www.cnbc.com/id/101590873

 

Flying Kiwi dollar to come ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Â¹Ãƒƒâ€Â¦ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã¢â‚¬Å“down to earthÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢: Goldman Sachs

 

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions. Please note that I do not endorse or take responsibility for material in the above hyper-linked site.

 

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