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Australian Housing Crash


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As a student of Financial History, do you realise that gold would have to be > $2,000/oz to be the equivalent of the inflation adjusted 1980 high ? and that's at around 3.5% compound. (probably closer to $4,000 in real terms)


Sorry to get off topic but just comparing gold to real estate.

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Yes, but I'm happy with returns to this date and have no intention of selling (it may go underwater in the next few months - but it does not concern me) as I know the low and min high point of where it is going and when - how it gets there I don't care.
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Done... and your point is ?


1 July 2000 to 8 March 2001 = $7K

9 March 2001 to 31 December 2001 = $14K

1 January 2002 to 30 June 2002 = $10K

1 July 2002 to 13 October 2008 = $7K

14 October 2008 to Now = $14K (Established homes)

14 October 2008 to 10 November 2008 = $21K

11 November 2008 to Now = $24K (New construction)


So depending on what time you bought in the last 9 years you may have received $7K, $10K, $14K, $21K or $24K. You seem to imply everyone got today's grant rate... which isn't correct.


Now top 20 suburbs in NSW.. they all have large amount of new home construction so there's no surprised they have large amounts of grants awarded to them, is it ?




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the delinquency analysis and investor reports make interesting reading - seems to be a lot of "transparency"


2002 series medallion trust -- issuance ~$2.5bn, delinquency 0.68% at dec08


2008 series medallion trust -- issuance ~$38.8Bn , delinquency 0.63% at dec08


Mark to Market rules ? - value of collateral adjustments, insurers PMI and Genworth mentioned


if you read the latest of the medallion trust investor reports there have been no Foreclosures for the Medallion series in 2001.2002,2003


2004 - 3 foreclosures, 2005 - nil, 2006 - 4, 2007- 2 -- conclusions ?


A good area to monitor - the RBA may have some summarisation


Any widespread RE falls must have an effect

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