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Australian Housing Crash


Jimmy123

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cwjohn,

 

You are worried your daughter will be 'locked out' forever? Are you serious? You think you can have a closed market with ever escalating prices? I seem to recall back in 2003/2004 people saying the exact same thing "buy now, prices will never be this cheap. Buy before you will be locked out forever". Guess what? Prices are getting cheaper. People aren't locked out. But you still have the spruikers selling the same old snake oil slogan.

 

Rents increasing at 20% per year? Sustainable? Hardly. It was like that in Sydney for the last 2 years. Real estate agents were saying rents were rising 20% (they weren't) and lots of people turning up at viewings. Guess what? More house has come onto the market and rents have stabalised. There are now alot more rentals available.

 

Just "NO WAY the property value will drop." is a big call. Some were saying that at XAO 6,000.

 

A property price of <500K does not make it immune from market forces. Ask the penny dreadful crowds how their stocks are holding up in the latest collapse.

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PROVIDED the rent is paid, and the tenancy agreement is fulfilled in total

answer surely must be no.

 

Even if the rent is NOT paid, believe there is a satututory time period when

no direct landlord action can take place. Depends on state law.

 

Eviction is a messy business.

 

To the best of my belief.

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jasonjeroo

 

Your handing out lot of "hindsight" advise.

 

The market is more than just Sydney (try expanding your view point), based on your "advise" I should not have bought my last property (2005)

I should have also sold all my shareholdings in October last year.

 

So your 100% cash ATM?

Your parents renting ?

Your renting?

 

Supply is falling, it can be proven statically. You've claimed "There are more properties on the market now than a couple of years ago". The stats don't support that, they do support that your getting confused with "number of days on market" as that is increasing.

 

The past shows at the bottom of the market quality is low. I'm talking about the "bottom" not the last 12 months unless your claiming it's bottoming now. What's been on offer in Mosman in the last 12 months may not be quality when you compare it AGAINST other Mosman properties. Like for Like, Mosman vs Mosman, Bondi vs Bondi, at the bottom of the market the quality on offer in each suburb is below its normal par.

 

As to missing out, if you quoted me correctly you'll see I talk about risk. You claiming it is better to buy at the bottom, so when is that ? I see people call tops and bottoms on shares all day and more often they miss them by a clear +10%.

 

Anyhow, again the property market is more than a single city or state. Sydney prices topped out more than 5 years ago (again statistics show this clearly) but other markets like Adelaide grew up to the last quarter (if you do a little research you'll see Adelaide was a little slow, it didn't run like Sydney did in the early 00's and hence it was "catching up")

 

Cheers

Matt

 

BTW If I followed your advice I would have missed on a 54% increase on my last property.

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mminion,

 

My "hindsight" advice is matched by your "crystal ball" advice.

 

I prefer to predict the future by learning from the past.

 

The sharemarket got smashed because of liquidity drying up. I don't see how houses will get off untouched.

 

You say "Supply is falling, it can be proven statically". I say supply is increasing. It can be proven statistically.

 

As you say, properties are also staying on the market longer. This is because they are overpriced and buyers are not willing to pay that price these days. If they are such good buys why is this the case?

 

Not the same quality? Isn't price the universal metric for quality. Or is there some other measure?

 

I agree tops and bottoms are hard to get exactly right. But it should be pretty obvious that our economic bottom is still not here yet and houses should fall further. I think there is more risk in buying now than waiting a bit longer.

 

Adelaide? It only started to rise after all the other "investors" got priced out of the other states. Nice place to get cheap dope but the average earnings there are too low to support any serious cap gains.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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This is getting childish now, any disagreement is meet with a personal attack, it's tip for tap on answers (i.e. I'm not answering you because you didn't answer me). There's 3 direct questions in the last post you seem to have ignored.

 

"crystal ball advice" ? Please point me to itÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¦ it must be a big ball as it fits RMIT, ABS, Aus Gov etc in it.

 

"You say "Supply is falling, it can be proven statically". I say supply is increasing. It can be proven statistically."

Please supply it, I've been posting on this topic for months now, lots of stats and sources for those stats. In reviewing your posts I'm yet to see any major stats and/or source to backup a viewpoint.

 

Quality isn't just about price, supply is a factorÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¦ because you can afford something doesn't always mean you can obtain it when you want it.

 

As to Adelaide, your comments show a lack of research (and something else but we're being nice now). Adelaide started to move based on the mining boom, defense contracts, etc. We come back to stats, it's easy to measure when "investors" from other states move in (i.e. the address of the title holder, it's all recorded by the State Title office) and the stats show what you claim "started" the rise... occurred 3 years after it (funny that). Average earnings, ABS will clear that up (have a look and then compare against average state based property prices) as to cap gains whats better, 500K to 600K or 1m to 1.2m ? .

 

Awaiting a reply with stats and sources.

 

Cheers

Matt

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Hi Flower,

 

How is residential construction going over there (WA) ?

 

Are there cranes in the sky ?

 

Units being sold off the plan ?

 

House v's unit prices - which seem to be holding up better ?

 

Top end ?

 

As far as the resource sector, where do these guys buy ? or are they generally out-of-towners renting ?

 

Cheers.

Duster.

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Jason

 

Plainly you did not read my post. I talked about rents. You talked about prices. Yes, I am serious that my Daughter will be locked out. Two years ago I saw the same thing happen in Prahran Melbourne and two years later rents have increased 40%. At that time I bought a unit for my son. Now he has not only avoided a 40% price increase in rent but we have a capital gain on the property.

 

There is no question that prices in the <500K have dropped a little but rents continue relentlessly upwards driven by strong demand as Gen x/y move to the inner cities, and immigrants who are used to inner city living choose those areas also. This obviously cannot last forever but it can certainly last ten years based on the fundamentals. The rise and rentals has been met by an increase in cap rate and this cannot last forever. Eventually prices must increase, but it is unlikely they will reduce.

 

 

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Hi cwj,

 

The same thing is happening here in Sydney. Rents in areas close to transport and infrastructure are booming, some areas as much as 20% over the last year. Asian students are a big driver here and it's not unusual for their parents at home to rent them inner city apartments for up to $1000/wk. On the other hand, the less wealthy one's share the cost, with some unscrupulous landlords packing up to a dozen people into a two bedroom apartment.

 

Not sure where it will all end but people seem to have changed their investing strategy from capital gain to yield. With the cash rate at these levels it looks like the way to play it if you have some spare dough, as you get bugger all in the bank.

 

The FHBG's aren't working for everyone and I know of a few families that have had major dramas. This is why I decided to buy in my (& the mrs) names.

 

First example: Dad bought a property in the daughters name, (for his own benefit, I assume) this was prior to the latest rise in the grant. Daughter gets married and now wants to buy a home but guess what ? Dad has used the original $7000 grant, so the daughter is out of pocket 40 odd grand with the latest rise + stamp duty savings. This escalated into a major blue with the daughter not speaking to her father, so, as most dads would do for their daughter, coughed up the 40 grand.

 

Second example: Dad buys son (and new daughter in law) a home using the grant (again this was a few years ago) Guess what ? new daughter in law does a runner and takes half of dads hard earned money. Dad not happy !

 

Cheers

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mminion,

 

Please point out in my post where I personally attack you....

 

I don't see how my personal circumstances have ANYTHING to do with a discussion on Australian Housing Crash. So they haven't been answered. Please stick to the topic at hand.

 

You are predicting house price increases, I am predicting house price decreases. The only way to get information on that is after the fact.

 

Yes quality is about price. It's the only metric we can use for this discussion. Mosman has plenty of properties for sale across it's entire price spectrum.

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