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Junior Oil Companies. ASX


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The one-year EMA is often resistance. And if Light Crude plays the percentages, we may soon be able to agree as facts become evident - and the chart shows nothing but facts. Mind you, the last tick appears to have crossed above the Volatility Envelope, suggesting a reprieve from the last Bear leg. But for the year-long sequence of Lower Highs (i.e. downtrend) to be broken, I reckon we need to see at least a breakout from the triangle, or $95 at the least. A Higher High, required to break the sequence, would even require $100+ on this chart.



Sorry, couldn't find a comparable chart for Tapis (only one "P", and no need to use all caps); but then again, when I want to assess an oiler - junior, senior, or in-between - I prefer to look at their respective chart.

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but then again, when I want to assess an oiler - junior, senior, or in-between - I prefer to look at their respective chart.


However, should the average punter still be emersed in brandy butter he probably would not notice the strength of both Tapis and WTI oils, once alerted he could then refer to a chart of an ASX oil stock, since ---usually the ASX oil producers move in tandem with the oil price :rolleyes:

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a good chart 05 Dec 2012 at the Investor Morning conference


- plot of BPT share price Versus ASX energy index - showing BPT outperforming, but also more volatile; with a high Beta


Nov '11 to Mar '12 - UP - driven by the thematic of unconventional gas

Mar '12 to Jul '12 - DOWN - entry to ASX100, stock shorting, Macro themes driving oil price down, Capital raising

Jul '12 to present - UP - Momentum back in shareprice, stable oil price to rising

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For those interested in a punt around mid year Neon Energy is worth a look.


Neon has gone backward through 2012 mainly due to a long winded project which is still yet to produce a result in terms of oil flow or reserves/resources. Its had the effect of wearing out many of the current holders. This has dropped Neon to a base area of 20-25cps which is not a bad platform for whats coming later in the year.


Neon is to be free carried through two wells in Vietnam. Neon has farmed down last year to Italian oil giant" ENI" which is a top 10 oil company.


At stake is a 25% share to Neon of a potential 611MB target in Block 120 (summary: http://neonenergy.com/activities/vietnam/block-120 ) and another 25% in a 3.9TCF gas target in Block 105 (summary: http://neonenergy.com/activities/vietnam/block-105 )


Its a little premature just yet as rigs are yet to be contracted so the timing of June is merely an intention at this point. The joint venture is currently in discussions with rig operators and hopes to make an announcemnt shortly.


This scenario reminds alot of Hardmans huge rise after its discovery at Chinguetti in Mauritania.


Neon will partake in two wells each of which could yield on success something a little over 150MBoe, 300MBoe in total to Neon.


If either of these wells were succesfull Neon would be propelled from the ranks of junior oiler to mid tier oiler.


One to watch in my opinion.


I hold.

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As we enter the silly season awaiting the deliberations of a disconnected FED and who don't seem to know what to do with the shocking debt they have incurred via QE--ie this Thursday will they ease--increase--or simply do nothing, WTI oil sits on support whilst Tappis oil may be bottoming for this move.


Either way oil itself whether WTI or Tappis may be the major beneficiary from whatever result the FOMC choose to supply us with.


If they ease, that must mean the US is "recovering"--ie they will want more oil.


If they Increase the bond buying that must mean inflation--ie higher oil prices.


If they do nothing--will the world require less or more oil?


Point being that out of all the commodities oil may be one of the better bets for 2014, what better way to partake than the trashed junior oil area of the ASX?


Bargains a plenty for the Freddie Foresighter's amongst us :rolleyes:



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Great to hear that you are still around!

Actually,I'm a 98% sort of person.To lose more than 2% of one total capital on a single trade is a very bad idea.A 1% limit is even better.

When I first 'joined' this forum thought that most folk who played the stock market were serious about it.This was an incorrect assessment as it is now obvious that forums such as this are populated by gamblers who invest very small quantities of capital and who are quite prepared to lose the lot.Very similar mentality to buying a lotto ticket.Hence we hear comments such asÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¦'if XYZ goes to zero I don't care because it will make no difference to my life'. I don't have any issue with this form of gambling but I reckon it should be seen for what it is.

All that aside,good luck with your investments.

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