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ANN - ANSELL LIMITED


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Kahuna and Peter

 

Sunday's age - Fat Prophets have ANN and MAY as their Health Care buys.

 

The only two companies in my portfolios showing heavy losses.

 

Hope they are right.

 

Didn't break through $8. Hope it consolidates now rather than heading towards low $7 again.

 

 

Regards

 

 

Avenger

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Hi Avenger ...

 

Yep got out again. Up around $8- a lot of sellers emerged. Couldn't get rid of them all above $7.90 and went down to $7.86 on the last ones but average was still above $7.90.

 

Since then just has felt dead. Market overall has been strong but ANN trading sub $7.70 most of Friday. Perfect level for me would be $7.60/65 and expect it will hold there.

I shall be hoping to get back in around there. Still have the buyback scheme with its upper limit of $7.77. Still appear to have institutional interest but as we hit new levels on the way up meeting some resistance from long term holders selling out. Shamrock has not helped but picture still rosy longer term until they pop my bubble.

 

Not really expecting anything until the final year end accounts come out in August.

For me whilst the share has hit a bit of a brick wallwith a long term holder who I think is under water selling out into the rise I am taking a completely different view.

 

We are now almost at the end of the financial year. No profit warning has come out.

the longer this goes on the more and more confident I am becoming. The call by management at the last reporting was very very very bullish. Since thier has been no word I am still presuming all is still on track. Now if their call for 2005 earnings is correct I would expect the share price to be 25% higher at least than where we are now. Maybe even as high as 50% or $11.00. Now the accounts looked very very good to me at the last reporting. The call for the improvement this year had me looking for a target of $9.00 by year end 2004. Maybe too bullish on my part but this is the big turnaround story for me.

Happy again to trade the range and hope to pick up my 15% for a discount of 3.5% to where i sold it.

 

 

Maybe time to just sit and wait once I get it back this time. I shall keep this thread updated in a timely manner so you can laugh/cry at the same time. In other words as I have been buying or selling I have updated either at the time or telegraphed my intentions beforehand. Certainlly wouldn't be willing to do this with a penny dreadful as I would be gazumped in a big way !!! Results have been excellent so far. Tradin in and out has picked up more than actually being long for the last 4 months. Together the results are great.

 

In the end if the numbers and estimates are correct for 2004 the p/e will fall to about 16. Now the big call is for the 2005 numbers. If they even come in near the 2005 estimate and manage to get back the share in the share buyback scheme well the implied P/E by my reckoning will be around the 10.5 level. Needless to say the price won't remain where it is if the Ansell story comes true. Even a partial failure will still see some strong support.

Best case comes in at the 10.5 level .... P/E goes to 18 reflecting market optomism and overshooting the mark.

 

WHo knows August is a long way off but with no announcements of a signifigant nature expected prior to the next accounts the longer this goes on for me, the more convinced I become of the rosy picture !!!

 

Good luck

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Yes I noticed that too Avenger. Fat Prophets were the only one of the three who advised buying anything other than run of the mill dross like Telstra.

 

The trouble with MAY is, I think they are still trying to figure out what they do for a living, whereas ANN have already made that decision. This puts ANN way ahead.

 

Remember that there is a lot of portfolio tidying as we approach mid June. It happens every year. Few stocks are likely hit their highs at this time but a few hit their lows. In other words, a good time to be buying but the wrong time to be appraising market performance.

 

 

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Back in.

 

Had a few moments of worry overnight but this mornings announcement helps a lot.

Sellers justy kept coming in yesterday and chasing the bids down. Managed to get even a better level than expected yesterday but really looked as though maybe I had done the wrong thing on the close yesterday.

 

Announcement this morning that the share buy back scheme was buying yesterday gives me some hope of support in the $7.50/60 level.

 

Seems as you suggested some year end squaring going on. Suspect the seller we have seen from $7.95 and lower is shamrock or who they got rid of their shares to. Suspect soon we shall see the market digest this lump of over 4 million digested and we shall continue back up.

 

Good luck

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Kahuna1

 

I like your posts. Thank you for providing such frank, entertaining and honest opinions. Your comments are interesting and informative. Being relatively new to the trading game I recognise most if not all of the traps you warn of, in my past trades.

Thanks again. http://sharescene.com/html/emoticons/biggrin.gif Capital

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Thanks capital ..

 

Just sold most of them back out. Hardly worth it but have been watching the seller just keep coming back in above $7.70 for a few days now and seems as the other guys have pointed out maybe some pre 30 th June selling.

 

Shall try and get them back somewhere lower and maybe we have a bigger dip this time.

 

That being said I would expect some rally actually on the 30th June for touch up of portfolio's as of the end of year.

 

Shall sit on my hands for now. Last trade after bro netted under 1.5% ... so shall just wait and see for a much better level.

 

Cheers

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Well this is a first in recent times.

 

Having sold out just above $7.70 and now being square to see the share higher and if wanting to get back long would have to buy back at a loss to get back in.

 

Was happy yesterday morning that I had sold but as the day went on was becoming less and less convinced.

 

There was a battle of wits at $7.75 with the sellers standing down for now but since they appear to be the two signifigant holders with over 5% each ... 10% in total I would't read a hell of a lot into it.

 

 

I shall watch over the next week as to what to do.

 

Yesterday announcement of yet another large holder selling. One would have thought this might have added some pressure to the price.

 

So now ANN is in the grips of several factions.

 

In summary

 

Share buy back scheme with lots to buy limited in price to $7.77 . Seems they want them and have paid up to the $7.65/7.70 level

 

One new large holder with over 5% on the books.

What appears to be two agressive buyers.

 

On the other hand

two very large holders with over 5% selling and selling agressivly up above these levels.

 

On other fronts.

 

Some position massaging before 30 th June. Stock at highs for a few years round here.

 

Accounts and very bullish company call seems to be on track with no warning or change regarding profit numbers. In all very bullish.

 

Generally market trading near highs and as we approach 30th June important to see overall where the market is as the square up 30th June on the close could move prices in stocks like this as much as 5/6%.

 

FROM HERE

 

Still want to be long.

SHall be looking for a level to get back in however shall not chase should it trade back up near recent highs unless there is some very positive news.

 

 

Best of luck

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Sorry but doubt it.

 

Too many lost too much with the company going from a very strong earner about 5/6 years ago to a company with too much debt and lots of troubled divisions.

 

That is not the case at present!!

 

I think it is more of a turnaround story rather than any target for a takeover.

Whilst I believe if the advertised profit comes in the share is undervalued to a great extent, any offer of a takeover would just realise that value which I believe will come over the next 18 months in a matter of days.

 

What would someone have to offer seriously to hope to have a chance of getting the company ?? I would think $12.00 plus and I think any offer of say $10.00 would be laughed at ... hence I believe no one will make an offer.

 

Just a matter of staying core long and selling into the rallies.

 

Good luck

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Wow ..

 

Managed to get some back yesterday. Just too many buyers below $7.70 and the seller is the one backing off.

 

Looks like new highs again today .... only have half my original position so have maybe out smarted myself. Look to buy on any dip around $7.80 and get my full 15% back and maybe even go up to 20%. Just looks bid to me.

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