Foreign Currency

[early birds]

Compared to the action in other asset classes, it was a rather dull affair in FX overnight. The AUDUSD closed lower at .7238 (-0.34%) as the U.S. dollar found broad-based support on risk aversion flows. Little fresh news is expected from today’s RBA meeting minutes following RBA Governor Lowes speech at the Anika Foundation lunch last week that reiterated interest rate hikes are highly unlikely before 2024

[early birds]

The AUDUSD closed lower at .7230 (-0.32%) and needing to see evidence that Chinese authorities have the Evergrande situation under control to prevent a retest of the August .7106 low. With the market sitting very short the AUDUSD, there is some potential for a sharp snap back over the next 24 hours—something to be aware of.

 

 

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aware of short squeeeeeeezzzz?? use the stops guys!!

[early birds]

The AUDUSD closed at .7262 (+0.41%) after a brief spike higher to .7300c after the FOMC meeting. We remain on the sidelines in the AUDUSD, aware that the market is sitting very short AUDUSD, however also cognisant of the idea the market appears interested in retesting the August .7106 low

[early birds]

The AUDUSD closed at .7310 (+0.88%) after nutting out a quadruple low near 7220. This development combined with the fact that the market is sitting uber short AUDUSD, suggests that the AUDUSD has bottomed for now and has the potential to retest the September .7478 high

[early birds]

The AUDUSD closed lower at .7258 (-0.52%), gravitating back towards the quadruple low near 7220. Providing the quadruple lower holds and combined with the fact that the market is sitting uber short AUDUSD, we are working with the idea that the AUDUSD has bottomed for now and has the potential to retest the September .7478 high

 

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used stops if one bets long for AUD ..

[early birds]

The AUDUSD closed higher at .7289 (0.41%). Providing the quadruple low at .7220 holds and combined with the fact that the market is sitting uber short AUDUSD, we are working with the idea that the AUDUSD has bottomed at .7220 and has the potential to retest the September .7478 high.

[early birds]

under the pump, the AUDUSD, which closed at .7184 (-0.73%) as the US dollar extended its gains across the board. The break of the .7220 quadruple low opening the way now for a retest and possible break of the August.7106 low, before medium-term support .7000c area.

 

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[early birds]

The AUDUSD closed higher at .7217 (+0.54%). The market sits heavily short of the AUDUSD, and the overnight bout of risk aversion has likely prompted some profit-taking. Nonetheless, there remain headwinds for the AUDUSD, and it would need to reclaim resistance at .7320/40 to avoid the possibility of a retest and break of the August .7106 low.

[early birds]

The ASX200 closed 93 points higher yesterday at 7278.5, on thin volumes as most of the country enjoyed a public holiday long weekend. The decline from the August 7632.8 high is viewed as a correction, not a change of trend. However, a recovery back above trend channel resistance at 7440ish is needed to indicate the correction is complete. Until then, a test of the 200 day moving average at 7090 is possible. The ASX200 is expected to open lower this morning at 7195. Resistance on the day is expected at 7250, and support viewed at 7160/50

[early birds]

AUD/USD: The Aussie closed with bearish-coloured Spinning Top weekly and monthly candles reflecting indecision ahead of this week's RBA rate update. Price action managed to scrape back above the 18-month support trend line and there is the look of a bullish-reversal descending wedge on the 4hr chart to monitor for next week.

 

There are revised 4hr chart trend lines to monitor for any new breakout.

 

Bullish targets: Any bullish 4hr chart trend line breakout would bring 0.73 and the daily chart's bear trend line, near the 4hr chart's 61.8% Fibonacci, into focus. After that, watch 0.74 and the daily 200 EMA followed by 0.75 and whole numbers on the way up to the 11-yr bear trend line and 0.80 S/R.

 

Bearish targets: Any bearish 4hr chart trend line breakout would bring the 18-month support trend line and 0.72 into focus. After that, watch whole-number levels on the way down to 0.65 as this is near the 61.8% Fibonacci of the March 2020 - Feb 2021 swing High move

 

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little longer time frame for AUD

 

for me------lean towards bearish as RBA had dovish words and action yesterday. but keep eye on TA .