Foreign Currency

[early birds]

The U.S. dollar index, the DXY, closed unchanged for a second session at 92.68 after testing and holding support 92.45ish. Some loss of momentum over month-end and into Friday's U.S. jobs data is unsurprising. A break/daily close below support at 92.40 is needed to reinvigorate downside targets starting with the 200-day ma at 91.30/20. Keeping in mind while the DXY index holds above support at 92.40ish, a retest of the 93.72 high is possible. The AUDUSD closed higher at .7313 (+0.22%) after testing the upper bound of the .7320/40 resistance zone. As mentioned yesterday, the AUDUSD is likely to be well supported in the coming weeks due to an estimated $19.7bn AUD that will be bought over the next month for dividend repayments for shareholders of Australian resource companies. However, before that, today’s sees the release of AU Q2 GDP at 11.30 am. The market is looking for a modest rise of 0.4% q/q.

 

 

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still think that aud will hit 76ish cps in near term!! imho though!!

 

 

 

 

[early birds]

The U.S. dollar index, the DXY, closed lower at 92.52 (-0.12%), perched just above the critical support noted near 92.45/40ish. A break/daily close below support at 92.40 after tomorrow night's jobs data would open downside targets starting with the 200-day ma at 91.30/20. Keeping in mind while the DXY index holds above support at 92.40ish, a retest of the 93.72 high is possible. In a delayed reaction to yesterday’s AU Q2 GDP beat, the AUDUSD caught a bid in the London session to close higher at .7374 (+0.79%). As noted earlier this week, the AUDUSD is likely to be well supported in the coming weeks due to an estimated $19.7bn AUD that will be bought over the next month for dividend repayments for shareholders of Australian resource companies. This should help the AUDUSD test the next band of upside resistance near .7425.

 

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[early birds]

The U.S. dollar index, the DXY, closed lower at 92.22 (-0.24%), below the critical support noted near 92.45/40ish. While I would like to see the move lower confirmed tonight after the US jobs data, the overnight weakness does warn that a move lower towards the 200-day ma at 91.30/20 has commenced. Keeping in mind should the DXY index close back above resistance at 92.40/60, it would negate the emerging bearish bias. The AUDUSD closed higher at .7401 (+0.46%), continuing its recovery from the .7106 low. As noted in recent updates, the AUDUSD is likely to be well supported in the coming weeks due to an estimated $19.7bn AUD that will be bought in September for dividend repayments for shareholders of Australian resource companies. Should the AUDUSD break above the layer of resistance near .7425, it would open up the .7500/30 resistance area.

 

 

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am really bearish on USD , but have respecting TA esp for currencies!!

[early birds]

The U.S. dollar index, the DXY, closed lower at 92.035 (-0.21 building further on the rejection from the August 93.72 high. As a result, a bearish US dollar bias is now in place, looking for a test of the 200-day ma at 91.30/20 with scope for a deeper move towards range lows near 90.00. Keeping in mind, should the DXY index reclaim resistance at 92.60ish, it would negate the bearish bias. The AUDUSD closed higher a .7458 (+0.78%), extending its recovery from the .7106 low and opening up a move above .7500c. As noted in recent updates, the AUDUSD is likely to be well supported in the coming weeks due to an estimated $19.7bn AUD that will be bought for dividend repayments for shareholders of Australian resource companies. As such, pullbacks that follow the dovish RBA Board meeting on Tuesday are likely to be limited.

[early birds]

The U.S. dollar index, the DXY, broke its run of five straight losing days, closing higher at 92.22 (+0.20%). Nonetheless, after the clear rejection from the August 93.72 high and the break of support at 92.60/40, a bearish bias is in place, looking for a test of the 200-day ma at 91.30/20. Keeping in mind, should the DXY index reclaim resistance at 92.60ish, it would negate the bearish bias. The AUDUSD closed lower at .7434 (-0.34%), taking a breather after a 5% rally from the .7106 low and ahead of this afternoon's RBA meeting at 2.30 pm. The impact of extended lockdowns in Sydney and Melbourne is expected to see the RBA delay the scheduled taper of its QE program. However, due to an estimated $19.7bn AUD that will be bought for dividend repayments for shareholders of Australian resource companies and the soft US jobs number on Friday, the preference is to buy dips in the AUDUSD between .7400 and .7300c.

[early birds]

The U.S. dollar index, the DXY, gained higher for a second straight session at 92.55 (+0.36%), benefitting from risk aversion buying and bringing into question the rejection from the August 93.72 high. That said, while below resistance at 92.60, give the downtrend a chance to reassert itself, aware that should the DXY index reclaim resistance at 92.60ish on a closing basis, it would negate the bearish bias. The AUDUSD closed lower at .7390 (-0.34%), after initially trading 25 pips higher to .7468 after the RBA elected to taper its QE program despite ongoing lockdowns in Melbourne and Sydney. After its 5% rally from the .7106 low, our best guess is the AUDUSD is entering a new higher trading range with sellers operating ahead of the 200 day moving average .7550/.7600 and dip buyers likely emerging ahead of the .7320/00 support region.

 

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i'm long AUD as well, but trading only [ stop loss is set really tight]

 

 

[early birds]

The U.S. dollar index, the DXY, closed higher for a third session at 92.70 (+0.20%), again benefitting from risk aversion buying. The daily close above 92.60 results in a more neutral bias, needing a sustained break of support 91.95/75 or resistance at 93.20/93.70ish to put an end to the DXY’s range trading. The AUDUSD closed lower at .7378 (-0.11%) after testing the upper echelon of a band of support between .7340/00. After its 5% rally from the .7106 low, the best guess is the AUDUSD has entered a new higher trading range with sellers operating ahead of the 200 day moving average .7550/.7600 and dip buyers likely ahead of the .7320/00 support region.

 

 

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my long trade on AUD been stopped out!!

 

 

[early birds]

The AUDUSD is the biggest mover in G10 FX overnight as it closed lower at .7328 (-0.53%) on risk aversion flows and following a dovish speech yesterday by RBA Governor Lowe. Support at .7320/00 needs to hold to prevent a deeper pullback towards .7200c.

[early birds]

The AUDUSD also closed flat at .7327 ahead of today’s lockdown affected AU August jobs data. There is an extreme ride range of forecasts for today’s jobs number. For example, estimates for the unemployment rate vary from 4.8% to 5.5%! For the record, the market expects to see the unemployment rate rise from 4.6% to 5.0%. Employment is expected to fall 110k, along with a sharp decline in the participation rate from 66% to 65.5%. Support at .7320/00 needs to continue to hold to prevent a deeper pullback towards .7200c

[early birds]

The AUDUSD closed below .7300c for the first time since late August following a mixed AU labour force report, and on risk aversion flows and better than expected U.S. retail sales that supported the U.S dollar. Bounces are likely to find sellers on the day ahead of resistance at .7350.

 

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AUD looks weak on TA base.