Jump to content

Foreign Currency


ShareCafe

Recommended Posts

stronger than expected PPI data providing support for the US dollar index, the DXY, as it closed higher at 92.995 (0.08%). However, while below the resistance coming from the double top at 93.20ish, the expectation is for the DXY index to rotate lower towards 92.00 in the short term. Aware that should the DXY break and close above 93.20ish, further gains towards 94.00 are likely. The AUDUSD closed lower at .7338 (-0.47%) towards the bottom of its recent .7420 -.7300 range as the USD rallied across the. Resistance at .7420/30 remains the pivot. While below here, risks are for a retest of the recent .7289 low, with a break below .7289 warning of a deeper decline towards .7200c. Above .7420/30 would be the first indication that a cycle low is in place at .7289.

 

 

================================

 

i would go long for AUD for a scalping trade today!! :o

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 166
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

U.S. dollar index, the DXY, closed higher at 93.13 (+0.54%), again benefiting from risk aversion flows and setting up a test of critical resistance at 93.20ish. Should the DXY break and close above 93.20ish, further gains towards 94.00 and then to 94.74 area is likely. Keeping in mind that if the DXY index again fails to break above 93.20ish, allow for the DXY index to rotate lower towards 92.00. The AUDUSD closed lower at .7254 (-1.14%) as risk aversion selling augmented the more cautious tone evident in yesterday’s RBA meeting minutes that provides some optionality to pause or reverse its Q.E. tapering decision pending domestic lockdown developments. Providing the AUDUSD remains below resistance, formerly support at .7320/30, the expectation is for the decline to continue towards .7200c, with risks towards .7000c.

 

=====================

 

AUD'USD pair moved the way opposite my my study, so i i got stopped out last night's session!! :weirdsmiley:

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

U.S. dollar index, the DXY, closed flattish at 93.16 (+0.03%) after poking its head above critical resistance at 93.20ish. Should the DXY break and close above 93.20ish, further gains towards 94.00 and then to 94.74 are likely. Keeping in mind that if the DXY index is unable to break above 93.20ish in coming sessions, allow for the DXY index to rotate lower towards 92.00. The AUDUSD closed lower at .7245 (-0.07%) on risk aversion and following yesterday’s weaker Q2 wage price index at 1.7% y/y (consensus 1.9%). Wage growth remains well below the level the RBA wants to see, and with today’s AU labour force data for July likely to show deterioration as a result of lockdowns, hopes of higher wages growth are off-limits for now. Providing the AUDUSD remains below resistance .7320/30, allow the decline to continue towards .7200c, with risks towards .7000c.

 

 

===============================

 

the AUD chart looked saky------------- think of RBA might finally move their fingers to the stupid low rate!! :o

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

the U.S. dollar index, the DXY, closed higher at 93.56 (+0.46%) above critical resistance at 93.20ish. Providing the DXY remains above support at 93.20/00 on a closing basis, we are bullish and favour buying intraday dips in the DXY index, expecting further gains towards 94.00 and then to 94.74. The AUDUSD closed lower at .7148 (-0.07%) despite stronger AU labour force data for July which masked underlying weakness and leaves the worst to come in the months ahead. After reaching and breaching our .7200c target yesterday we look for the down move to extend towards .7000c on the back of surging new Covid Cases in NSW, the break higher in the U.S. dollar index, and following the 15% fall in iron ore overnight.

 

===========================================

 

weakness from AUD might save asx200 ????

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The U.S. dollar index, the DXY, closed slightly lower at 93.50 (-0.08%) after making a new cycle high at 93.72. Tapering and uncertainty/growth concerns are expected to continue to support the U.S. dollar, and providing the DXY remains above support at 93.20/00 on a closing basis, we are bullish, and favour buying dips in the DXY index in anticipation of further gains towards 94.00 and then to 94.74. The AUDUSD closed lower at .7134 (-0.18%) after making a fresh cycle low at .7106 on Friday. The AUDUSD is now approaching oversold levels, and in the short term, a bounce would not surprise before the down move extends towards medium-term support at .7000c.

 

==================

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

U.S. dollar index, the DXY, closed lower at 93.00 (-0.53%) below its breakout level at 93.20 as FX markets square up USD longs into Fridays Jackson Hole. Fundamentally the prospect of tapering and uncertainty/growth concerns are supportive of the US dollar. However, the break and close below support at 93.20/00 is a setback to the bullish USD view and requires a more neutral stance for now. The AUDUSD closed sharply higher at .7214 (1.11%) after reaching oversold levels on Friday noted in yesterday’s Morning Brief. In the short term, further gains/short covering towards resistance .7320/40c would not surprise before the down move reasserts itself towards .7000c. Aware that a break/close above resistance at .7320/40 is required to put the AUDUSD on a more stable footing.

 

==================================================

 

all those are techy stuff , price action can be jumpy these days. might need do little more of own research to set the stops . :blush:

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

U.S. dollar index, the DXY, closed slightly lower at 92.83 (-0.09%) as the square up of US dollar longs into Fridays Jackson Hole Symposium continued. Fundamentally the prospect of tapering and uncertainty/growth concerns are supportive of the US dollar. However, the rejection from last week’s 93.72 high has resulted in a neutral stance for now. Should the DXY close below support at 92.50 after Jackson Hole, it would warrant a bearish bias. The AUDUSD closed higher for a third session at .7277 (0.26%) as short-covering continued, supported by firmer commodity prices. Technically there appears to be room for further gains towards resistance .7320/40c and possibly as high as .7400/20c; however, with Jackson Hole and end of month rebalancing flows around the corner technical’ s may be overrun.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The U.S. dollar index, the DXY, closed higher 93.04 (0.23%), benefitting from the deterioration in risk sentiment, which started during the Asian time zone after the Bank of Korea became the first Central Bank in Asia to raise interest rates. Fundamentally the prospect of the Fed Chairman confirming tapering is coming at the end of the year and uncertainty/growth concerns are supportive of the US dollar. Technically the DXY index needs to hold above support at 92.60/50 to negate the signs of rejection from last week's 93.72 high and keep the uptrend intact. The AUDUSD never one to do well when the market is in "risk-off" mode closed the session lower at .7237 (-0.54%). With positioning likely to be significantly cleaner, the AUDUSD remains below resistance at .7320/40, its fate hanging in the balance ahead of Jackson Hole tonight and end of month rebalancing flows next week.

 

======================================================

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The U.S. dollar index, the DXY, closed lower at 92.69 (-0.40%) on the back foot after the more dovish tone on rate hikes from Chairman Powell. The DXY index needs to hold above support at 92.60/50 support to negate the signs of rejection from the recent 93.72 high and keep the uptrend intact. A daily close below 92.60/50 would warn of a deeper decline towards support 91.30/20. The AUDUSD closed almost 2.5% higher last week at .7310 and starts the week just below short-term resistance at .7320/40. If the AUDUSD can break/close above .7320/40, allow for last week’s recovery to extend towards .7420/30.

 

======

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The U.S. dollar index, the DXY, closed unchanged at 92.69 after testing and holding support 92.60/45. The DXY index needs to continue to hold above support at 92.60/45ish to negate the signs of rejection from the recent 93.72 high potential head and shoulders topping pattern and keep the uptrend intact. A daily close below 92.45 would warn of a deeper decline towards support 91.30/20. The AUDUSD edged lower to close at .7294 (-0.25%), unable to make any meaningful impression against the horizontal resistance at .7320/40. The AUDUSD is likely to be well supported in the coming weeks due to an estimated $19.7bn AUD that will be bought over the next month for dividend repayments for shareholders of Australian resource companies. If the AUDUSD can break/close above .7320/40, allow for last week’s recovery to extend towards .7420/30

 

=============

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

×
×
  • Create New...