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The US dollar index (DXY) rose 0.4% to its highest level since early November, closing the session above the 11th of November high in another show of bullish defiance. In turn this saw USD/CHF tap an 8-month high after finding support above the June 2020 lows and USD/JPY hit a fresh 1-year high.

 

AUD/JPY closed the day with a bearish pinbar to warn of weakness at its six-day high. A break beneath yesterday’s low brings a bearish bias for the session although potential support at 83.30 remains due to the Marabuzo line previously mentioned.

AUD/NZD fell to a 5-day low after printing a series of upper wicks (selling tails) around 1.0936 resistance. A potential target for counter-trend traders is the 1.0850 handle, just above the February high.

 

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USD still in the range bound , now it hit top end.. :o

 

 

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AUD/USD closes in on key support

Prices have held above 0.7557 support since December. Since then, prices have rallied to 80c (for all of five minutes) and created a lower high and a lower low. Whilst not ‘textbook perfect’ the daily chart is grinding out a bearish reversal pattern similar to a head and shoulders top pattern and its measured move from the 80c top to the neckline around 0.7557 projects a target just above 71c.

 

Whilst this target may be on the ambitious side for some, a clear break of 0.7557 would bring the 0.7462 low into focus, and/or technical levels around 0.7400 where the 200-day eMA resides.

 

As yesterday closed with a bearish outside day which was capped by the 10-day eMA, we suspect a retest of neckline support is on the cards.

 

A break below 0.7557 could confirm a longer-term head and shoulders reversal pattern, with a target around 0.7100.

Over the near-term, bears could target the lows around 0.7400 and 0.7462.

The bias remains bearish beneath yesterday’s bearish outside day high at 0.7664.

 

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it is all based on TA , good for short term trading imho!!

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Worst day for the dollar in nearly two-months

It was the most bearish session in nearly two months for the US dollar index (DXY), as strong economic data saw the inverse correlation between equities and the dollar return. Since its low at the end of March there have been two clear waves of buying which has obviously coincided with USD majors coming under pressure. But if economic data remains firm and equities continue to soar higher, it could well weigh on the dollar broadly and send the US dollar index lower.

 

Yesterday’s bearish outside candle closed on its bullish trendline form the 25th of February low and just above 92.50 support. Whilst this pivotal level could provide a minor technical bounce over the near-term we fancy its chances of breaking support and heading towards the 91.30/40 lows.

 

A break below 92.50 invalidates the bullish trendline and brings the 91.30 low into focus.

91.7 could be an interim target as this is where the 100 and 50-day eMA’s reside.

The bias remains for a break of the trendline whilst prices remain beneath the bearish outside candle’s high. So, this does allow for a minor rebound from current levels first.

 

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most of it , is TA stuff . DYOR .

 

 

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AUD/USD closed with a bullish inside day after failing to break the lows of Wednesday’s bearish outside day. So, the inverted head and shoulders pattern remains in play but a clear break above 0.7680 / neckline invalidates it, whilst direct losses from here beneath 0.7600 keeps the pattern alive.

 

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only good for short term trading imho!! DYOR as always

 

 

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Forex: DXY breaks below 92.0

The US dollar index (DXY) finally broke out of range to close firmly beneath 92.00 support. The break of its bullish trendline remains intact and next key support levels reside around 91.30/40. Still, the 50-day eMA is now acting as support whilst the 20-day caps as resistance, but momentum currently favours a bearish continuation whilst prices remains below 93.33.

 

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AUD and NZD were hands down the strongest currencies, with both majors rising over 1%, whilst CHF and USD were the weakest. The New Zealand dollar dominated the leader board, taking top spot against JPY, CAD, USD, CHF, EUR and GBP. The US dollar index (DXY) fell to a one-month low and our initial target around the 91.30 lows remains intact. EUR/USD is just 20 pips below the 1.2000 barrier after closing to a one-month high.

 

The Australian dollar was mostly higher against its peers (barring NZD) and is in a firm position ahead of today’s employment data.

 

AUD/USD broke above 0.7677 resistance and the neckline to invalidate the head and shoulders top pattern although, as previously mentioned, it had already spent too long near the neckline to be construed as a breakout from a reversal pattern.

 

 

AUD/JPY rose to a six-day high during risk-on trade. It remains in a strong uptrend overall and has been supported by the 50-day eMA, and yesterday closed above its 20-day eMA and at the top trendline resistance of a potential triangle. The pattern projects a target just below 87.00.

 

Interestingly, its recent pullback respected the 50% Marabuzo line (50% of open to close on 26th March) by failing to close beneath it on several occasions. We suspect momentum has now realigned with its longer-term bullish trend.

 

A break above yesterday’s high confirms the breakout of the triangle.

The bias remains bullish above yesterday’s low. If a strong breakout is to be assumed then traders could use the 50% retracement of yesterday’s ranger to aid with risk management.

The initial target is the March high, follows by the triangle target just below 87.00.

 

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TA stuff. DYOR

 

 

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Lower yields and the Fed’s reiteration that they expect inflation to be transitory has continued to weigh on the greenback this week, allowing the dollar to continue reversing gains posted in March. Since its peak on 31st of March, DXY has since fallen -2.6%.

 

The US dollar index (DXY) fell -0.54% and broke convincingly beneath our initial target of the 91.30/40 lows, amid its most bearish session in nearly two weeks.

 

 

After initially dipping lower, AUD/USD recovered and closed with a bullish outside day. Its low was just above 77c, so our bias remains bullish above this key support level and for a retest of the 0.7800/50 highs.

 

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Forex: USD catches a safe-haven bid (and a little help from the Fed)

The US dollar regained its safe-haven status, although a letter from Jerome Powell sent to a US Senator revealed that the Fed are committed to controlling any inflationary overshoot. So, if inflation rises too fast and too far, perhaps they will act after all.

 

The US dollar index (DXY) rose 0.2% although remains below 91.30/40 resistance. A break above here confirms a deeper retracement but, if it holds as resistance, then bears could look to drive it towards 90.63/79 support.

 

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After a false break out of a symmetrical triangle, AUD/JPY prices have reversed sharply lower overnight and printed a large bearish hammer. If we take a step back, we also note that this is the third large bearish reversal candle since late February which highlights the potential for a larger topping pattern to form (even if it Is not exactly a textbook pattern or pleasing to the eye).

 

Interestingly, prices have found support at 83.33 where the trendline support and the Marabuzo line reside. The Marabuzo line is the 50% retracement between the open to close of the bullish Marabuzo candle on the 26th March.

 

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DYOR

 

 

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I took a short on AUDUSD, More than one way to skin a cat EB. Divergence also showed on AUDJPY. on 4H.I see your guys would have entered the same short trade on AUDJPY, but for different reasons.Take Profit would be around the 83.180s, or Trail your Stops.

 

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The US dollar was the strongest major, thanks to a combination of weaker equity prices and better than employment data. US jobless claims fell to a 13-month low of 574k, down from 765k previously, which more than beat the estimated rise to 617k claims.

 

 

AUD/USD fell to a six-day low and probed 0.7700 support. NZD/USD fared slightly better with a fall to a four-day low and appears to be the marginally stronger of the two (as seen with a falling AUD/NZD).

AUD/JPY continues to suggest it is topping out on the daily charts. A bearish engulfing candle closed just above the 50-day eMA, but a break beneath 83.00 takes it to fresh lows an bring the 82.50 target into focus (just above the 82.00/30 lows.

 

 

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trading them with pure TA .

 

 

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