Mags Posted September 19, 2009 Share Posted September 19, 2009 Nice honest review. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mark M Posted September 24, 2009 Share Posted September 24, 2009 Hi Arty, Your analysis on 19 Sep 09 has turned out to be very accurate. What is your opinion now it has risen above the $55.50 level you referred to? Indicators look extreme to me, but you are the expert in the TA department and I am interested in your opinion. Thanks Mark Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arty Posted September 24, 2009 Share Posted September 24, 2009 After yet another gap-up and reaching yet another Fibonacci target, MQG may have found resistance at last. Several reasons: Fib 161.8% of the range I used on the 19thFib 261.8% of an earlier range used belowthe last 2 candles form a Harami-like topI also observed that yesterday's Close above $56+ pushed MQG way above the equilibrium on Options distribution; there was a big excess of Calls right up to $55 and $56, which were all exercised after Expiry. Lower levels aside, it's quite possible that writers were quite happy to be called (= sell) MQG at $55+ and only have to buy a total of 8,000 shares for $57. Combined, all of the above gives me the impression that a retracement may be imminent: very likely to close the gap down to $51.50, but a good chance to reach the $47.50 level, where I could be tempted to buy back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arty Posted September 30, 2009 Share Posted September 30, 2009 Well - so much for that theory MQG just kept going. Window dressing for the end of quarter maybe? The Fibonacci level is still close, and prices have been known to overshoot. All the recent days have done is lift the trailing stop (1.5 days ATR) to $56. If I held lots, I might be tempted to start taking profit sooner; the half-hour chart suggests the rise may soon be slowing/reversing: MACD is making lower Highs while sp is still climbing. Any turn back to $37 could trigger quite a bit of profit taking... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arty Posted October 2, 2009 Share Posted October 2, 2009 Macka's may have closed the first gap, but in doing so, left a high one above it. More disconcerting at the moment: There are a few open gaps further down. And as today's candle closed low (5c shadow is next to nothing at these levels) the likely continuation early next week will be more of the same Chances to short or trading some Put options maybe? Definitely selling time if I were still holding any... PS: In my previous post, the "turn back to $37" should of course have read "turn back to $57" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arty Posted October 5, 2009 Share Posted October 5, 2009 Ouch ! On a relatively low volume day overall (it was a holiday in large parts of the country) today's big sell-off is a worry. So what if there's yet another open gap above? The current one was bitten into, and the Market rarely leaves unfinished business. Which means for holders there could be some painfully nervous days ahead. Glad I don't hold at this stage. If support were to arrive in the target zone, that might change. Right now, I'd feel better in Shorts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
749dark Posted July 7, 2010 Share Posted July 7, 2010 Anyone think that this stock is heading towards the $20 range? Seems like they're on a downward trend for the time being. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mags Posted July 7, 2010 Share Posted July 7, 2010 Surely not? One of the only remaining profitable big investment banks in the world? LMAO. I dare say the foreign traders, and locals, are shorting the guts out of it. Australia isn't the safest place for foreign funds, and talk of housing bubbles, up-coming election and China issues are taking there toll. MQG is probably a good litmus test of how the world is viewing Australia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arty Posted July 10, 2010 Share Posted July 10, 2010 Seems like they're on a downward trend for the time being. For about two months, you might have been right; but I wouldn't go short anymore. In late April/early May, a second phase of correction started; but the end of Fiscal 2009/10 appears to have "stopped the rot". Even on an investment-grade weekly chart would I prefer to be long rather than short MQG; increased volume and support at the 50% level of last year's range suggest Accumulation has been going on: The Daily chart shows two short legs (trading opportunities between a red down arrow and the blue-green reversal/ cover signal). Since the reversal on July 6, volume has strongly improved, as have price and (MACD) momentum. While I find a minor pullback to about $38 is still possible, I'd expect that break level to hold and see a mid-term price target around $42.65. Disclosure: I don't hold MQG at the moment; ANZ and NAB are currently my preferred banks as they have slightly better yield. BOQ and WBC are also on my bank watchlist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dee27 Posted September 6, 2010 Share Posted September 6, 2010 Hi Arty, looking to pick up a few for the long term, but reckon they might have a bit further to fall after today's downgrade. What's your read? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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