Jump to content

MQG - MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED


ShareCafe

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 200
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Posted Images

Hi Arty,

 

Your analysis on 19 Sep 09 has turned out to be very accurate. What is your opinion now it has risen above the $55.50 level you referred to?

 

Indicators look extreme to me, but you are the expert in the TA department and I am interested in your opinion.

 

Thanks

Mark

Link to comment
Share on other sites

After yet another gap-up and reaching yet another Fibonacci target, MQG may have found resistance at last.

Several reasons:

  • Fib 161.8% of the range I used on the 19th
  • Fib 261.8% of an earlier range used below
  • the last 2 candles form a Harami-like top
I also observed that yesterday's Close above $56+ pushed MQG way above the equilibrium on Options distribution; there was a big excess of Calls right up to $55 and $56, which were all exercised after Expiry. Lower levels aside, it's quite possible that writers were quite happy to be called (= sell) MQG at $55+ and only have to buy a total of 8,000 shares for $57.

 

Combined, all of the above gives me the impression that a retracement may be imminent: very likely to close the gap down to $51.50, but a good chance to reach the $47.50 level, where I could be tempted to buy back.

post-20537-1253835191.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Well - so much for that theory :blush:

MQG just kept going. Window dressing for the end of quarter maybe?

 

The Fibonacci level is still close, and prices have been known to overshoot.

All the recent days have done is lift the trailing stop (1.5 days ATR) to $56.

 

post-20537-1254280509.gif

 

If I held lots, I might be tempted to start taking profit sooner; the half-hour chart suggests the rise may soon be slowing/reversing: MACD is making lower Highs while sp is still climbing. Any turn back to $37 could trigger quite a bit of profit taking...

 

post-20537-1254280586.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Macka's may have closed the first gap, but in doing so, left a high one above it.

More disconcerting at the moment: There are a few open gaps further down. And as today's candle closed low (5c shadow is next to nothing at these levels) the likely continuation early next week will be more of the same :thumbdown:

Chances to short or trading some Put options maybe? Definitely selling time if I were still holding any...

 

PS: In my previous post, the "turn back to $37" should of course have read "turn back to $57"

 

post-20537-1254484155.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Ouch ! :thumbdown:

On a relatively low volume day overall (it was a holiday in large parts of the country) today's big sell-off is a worry.

So what if there's yet another open gap above? The current one was bitten into, and the Market rarely leaves unfinished business. Which means for holders there could be some painfully nervous days ahead.

Glad I don't hold at this stage. If support were to arrive in the target zone, that might change. Right now, I'd feel better in Shorts.

post-20537-1254742309.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 9 months later...

Surely not? One of the only remaining profitable big investment banks in the world? LMAO.

 

I dare say the foreign traders, and locals, are shorting the guts out of it.

 

Australia isn't the safest place for foreign funds, and talk of housing bubbles, up-coming election and China issues are taking there toll.

 

MQG is probably a good litmus test of how the world is viewing Australia.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Seems like they're on a downward trend for the time being.

For about two months, you might have been right; but I wouldn't go short anymore.

In late April/early May, a second phase of correction started; but the end of Fiscal 2009/10 appears to have "stopped the rot".

Even on an investment-grade weekly chart would I prefer to be long rather than short MQG; increased volume and support at the 50% level of last year's range suggest Accumulation has been going on:

 

post-20537-1278771639.gif

The Daily chart shows two short legs (trading opportunities between a red down arrow and the blue-green reversal/ cover signal). Since the reversal on July 6, volume has strongly improved, as have price and (MACD) momentum. While I find a minor pullback to about $38 is still possible, I'd expect that break level to hold and see a mid-term price target around $42.65.

 

post-20537-1278772180.gif

 

Disclosure: I don't hold MQG at the moment; ANZ and NAB are currently my preferred banks as they have slightly better yield.

BOQ and WBC are also on my bank watchlist.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 1 month later...

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

×
×
  • Create New...