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Peak Oil/Peak Exports


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In reply to: Brierley on Sunday 08/06/08 07:42pm

alas no, I only heard it overhearing conference call and busily taking down notes in background


someone said there was something similar on the PBS (?) series "Commanding Heights" (should be available somewhere) - with Milton Friedman showing two photos of gas stations in the US northeast in the 1970s...one with price controls and queues and one half a mile down the road with market prices and no queues

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In reply to: Brierley on Sunday 08/06/08 07:42pm

Also there is a very cool interview on BNN (yes B for Business) with Don Coxe.


If you google Don Coxe June 2008 or Don Coxe June 2008 BNN -- the second or third link down is it....you then get into BNN site and may have to click "Up Next" half way down the screen to get to him (or else search the BNN video library)


Love his bit on explaining what the long end of the oil futures curve might mean!

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In reply to: macduffy on Sunday 08/06/08 08:06am

Matt Simmons has been so much on the ball over time.

Listen to Zapata George Blake on www.financialsense.com on the first of the newshour of yesterday for some up to date news re oil. VERY INTERESTING.

If you have time, the whole show is very much worth listening to.

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In reply to: davo22 on Monday 09/06/08 07:31am



Thanks for that. Scary.


Very complex problem. We have only a few years to sort this out.


In the mean time, my wife and I who have been doing 2 or 3 cruises a year are going to double that for the next few years, before cruising becomes just too expensive. Ditto for flying.


Just our contribution to illustrate just how complex this problem is. http://www.sharescene.com/html/emoticons/weirdsmiley.gif




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thanks for the article Davo


I particularly like the chart on world oil discoveries posted by Nate hagen and the followup comments by Euan Mearns


So at 31 billion barrels per year we are consuming 310 billion barrels of oil per decade. There are only three decades in human history where we discovered this amount of oil - the 1950s, 60s, and 70s. In the recent past we've gotten nowhere close.


(85mbo/day current world oil consupmtion x 365 days/1 year x 10 years = 310billion barrels)


[quote]ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Â¦ÃƒƒÂ¢Ãƒ¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…âہ“Data always beats theories. 'Look at data three times and then come to a conclusion,' versus 'coming to a conclusion and searching for some data.' The former will win every time.ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚ÂÂ

ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã‚¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚ÂÂMatthew Simmons, ASPO-USA conference, Boston, MA, October 26, 2006



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In reply to: Brierley on Monday 09/06/08 12:53pm

the scary part is that most people seem to think that the short fall will be made up from alternative sources....that is 240billion barrels a decade worth of oil that we are not replacing........and that does not include growth.....might be time to replace my 3 tomatoe plants with corn instead, that should power my 5.7litre V8

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In reply to: Brierley on Monday 09/06/08 11:53am

I agree it is running out but the chart is very misleading. Need a chart on reserves or known reserves etc which are very difficult to estimate but far more valuable.


Solid estimates are not available, but a senior government official let slip six weeks ago there could be 33 billion barrels in two deposits. Brazil

Two deposits like this are enough to cover 20 or more smaller discoveries from the chart posted below.

Look at the chart and ask yourself what it is NOT telling you, that could be useful to complete the overall picture.



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In reply to: Brierley on Monday 09/06/08 10:53am



what about the NOLB (no oil left behind) programmes underway


eg. our own Cooper Oil Project


and the great unexplored regions like the Canning Basin


You quoted M.Simmons but the chart data shows that problem


How are the discovery volumes determined ? - does ASPO explain this ?



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