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Peak Oil/Peak Exports


davo22

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In reply to: redpencil on Wednesday 04/06/08 09:01am

Meanwhile Steve Bracks, ex Victorian premier, thinks there is a niche for Australia to produce BIG cars (yeah right, maybe GM will let us make electric hummers [hmmm that idea leads into a whole different topic http://www.sharescene.com/html/emoticons/smile.gif ]):

 

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story...0-26017,00.html

 

and the current NSW premier, Morris Minor, thinks biofuels is a novel idea with a big future.

 

http://www.smh.com.au/text/articles/2008/0...7420485885.html

 

Both gentlemen seem more intent on appeasing particular lobby groups rather than proposing inovative and long-sighted solutions. The lack of real leadership being shown in Australia to take advantage of opportunities on offer through the peak oil / climate change double play is disappointing IMO.

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In reply to: triage on Wednesday 04/06/08 09:29am

You are quite right triage the lack of leadership in Australia with regards to energy is very sad indeed. We actually export our rich resources from the NW shelf at the rate of 5 BOE to buy one barrel of oil from the middle east. In the simplest of terms this means we sell 5 barrels to buy one barrel. Australia is one of the few developed countries in the world that could be totally self sufficient in its energy needs. All this would take is leadership with a bit of vision... unfortunately it appears there is nobody in goverment who can see it. Our best hope might be Kevin 07 appointing yet another commission to have a look at it.

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I was always of the opinion that either Hydrogen or CNG (compressed natural gas) would be the next fuel, both have serious limitations though, and after watching a DVD called

"Who Killed the Electric Car?" it has changed my mind somewhat!

 

I now believe Electric is the way to go.

 

One of the states in the US, California from memory? mandated that all vehicles sold after a certain date, would have to have zero emissions, GM begrudgingly built an electric car to comply with these rules, but only leased them out, they would not sell them, in the background the large car manufacturers lobbied and perhaps even grafted as did the Oil companies to have the ruling removed and even some in government were onside, when you consider that George dubya B's family are heavily into oil well I suppose it was a NO BRAINER! they got their way and the ruling was repealed, all the vehicles GM built were retrieved from those who leased them and CRUSHED them, even though there was an outcry by those who had the vehicles, they loved them and some of them were very well known people!

 

GM in their wisdom, after scrapping the electric vehicles, produced a new model, guess what it was ??? you guessed it! the HUMMER, a real gas guzzler!

 

the electric car will have it's day again soon, one that isn't hybrid, but just battery powered, the average person in the US does about 29 miles per day, so I could see where a family may have say one hybrid and one all electric, The US is also now trying to push Hydrogen powered vehicles, but the price of Hydrogen is much higher than petrol, or was back when the article I mentioned was made, it was three times higher and there were many problems to be solved and they also have a limited range as well Go Figure, is this just another phurphy a stalling tactic?

 

I can see why GM or the OIL companies didn't want the electric vehicles, very little after sales market, the vehicles were very reliable and didn't need five litres of oil every 5000 km nor oil filters, spark plugs, costly repairs etc

 

These electric vehicles had better accelleration than most sports cars, they were quiet, had less vibration and cost much less to run than a petroleum powered vehicle, their only drawback was that they had a range of about 80 miles at that time but remember that battery technology has increased dramatically since then, and perhaps now the range would be more like 300 miles or perhaps even more, I can't see why they couldn't have a section of the car that was removable, one where the batteries are situated and you just slide it out and exchange it at a servo that recharged them? but remember that the refueling of the electric car doesn't necessarily need a network of servos to work, the infrastructure is already there in each and every home! the recharge servo's would come in my opinion because there would be a demand for them!

 

I think the US will be forced to follow once someone like the Japanese or some other country comes out with an all electric vehicle once again, you just watch GM take up the cudgel again then! they had something that worked but scrapped it, because they saw that it was too efficient, and there was very little after purchase market for sale of spare parts!

 

Just watch the price of a barrel of OIL drop once these vehicles take a starngle hold!

 

I recomend anybody looking at how things are done in the US re new tech, and how vested interests that don't want it to happen operate, get hold of this DVD on "who killed the electric car" as it pretty well much shows how things are done in the US.

 

On todays news I hear that GM are once again going to produce an electric vehicle, albeit a Hybrid one, it will be on the market by 2010 so they say, in the US and Oz, but it still has a small internal combustion engine, they like to have after sales maintanence and repair linked into their sales I believe!

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In reply to: ian_whitchurch on Tuesday 03/06/08 09:31pm

Hi Ian

 

You may have verbal intercourse with me, but nothing physical! How would my wife react if I loaned you my body! LOL

 

Please educate me.

 

You mean to say that you cannot close out a contract without physical delivery?

 

Are you really saying that I cannot speculate on oil by buying or selling and then closing my position for a profit or a loss?

 

I wish that you were correct. But I fear that you are not.

 

I rather take my ideas from the oil producing Arabs who have for years said that the price of oil has nothing to do with actual demand and supply. They have some honour. Which is more than I can say for hedge funds.

 

So how do you explain the latest fall?

 

Regards

 

 

Avenger

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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In reply to: Avenger on Wednesday 04/06/08 08:53pm

Avenger,

 

If you buy a contract for oil for August 08 delivery oil, then in August 08 that oil gets delivered to someone.

 

It might be you. It might be someone you sold the contract to. But *someone* has to take delivery.

 

If persons not intending to take delivery own the contract, then they have to either take physical delivery - or dump it for whatever they can get, or some bastard in Cushing, Oklahoma will ask them where they want their 100 000 barrels of oil (13000 tons) taken to .

 

If the price is over what end consumers are willing to pay, then refineries wont buy it because their tanks are full because consumers dont want to pay todays prices - then Mr Speculator has a problem.

 

This isnt gold you can just store in a bank by the ton - this is sloshy, liquid, flammable crude oil.

 

This hasnt happened. The end consumer is buying, buying, buying.

 

We make 85, maybe 87 million barrels a day, and the customers burn 85, maybe 87 million barrels a day, each and every day.

 

Now, the industry has seen overproduction - it has seen a stockpile of unsold oil. It isnt what we've got now. Punters are buying, regardless of price.

 

As to the latest wobble, dunno and frankly don't care that much. My view is that the important bit isnt what the oil price peaks at - it's what it troughs at. If it falls to $100, thats still $28 more than it was at the end of Katrina.

 

Ian Whitchurch

 

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In reply to: moosey on Wednesday 04/06/08 10:34am

Moosey,

 

timely - GM seems to be now shutting up the SUV - Truck shop

 

the "new" electric vehicle with advanced power control is a good bet for efficient transport

 

you may have read this book championing electric :

 

The Bottomless Well: The Twilight of Fuel, the Virtue of Waste, and Why We Will Never Run Out of Energy (Paperback)

by Peter Huber (Author), Mark P. Mills (Author)

 

 

save the oil and gas for the useful chemical appllications - plastics, fertilisers -

some of which are recyclable

 

remember that IPO that was killed off - aimed to convert old tyres to diesel

cant remember the name

 

use electric for transportation

 

more railway electrification to substitute diesel trains

 

eventually the need for nuclear plants will be realised

 

(I dont want to sound like a fanatic - lol )

 

 

Regards

http://www.sharescene.com/html/emoticons/biggrin.gif

 

 

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In reply to: db76 on Thursday 05/06/08 02:17am

Thanks db76, I haven't read that book but I will try and get a copy to read, and I agree it's far better to save what oil we have for useful purposes like those you mentioned, and I also agree with your sentiments re Nuclear, it will come one day, perhaps sooner than we think, especially in Victoria if they continue with this desalination plant they are building?

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In reply to: ian_whitchurch on Wednesday 04/06/08 09:41pm

Ian

 

That is not my understanding on how it actually works.

 

If I buy a contract which I don't want to take delivery of, and you sell me that contract for which you dn't want to deliver, the on the closing date, we settle that contract and close it without delivery. If the closing price is up, you pay me the difference between the closing price and our contract price and vice versa.

 

Oil contracts are no different from any other commodities. People can speculate on them without having to take physical delivery.

 

I am actually surprised that such an expert on oil as you obviously are is not aware of this.

 

The only way to take the speculators out is to restrict trade to actual buyers and sellers.

 

In fact, because the demand for oil in inelastic at whatever prices, it is much easier for speculators to operate.

 

By the way, your have just told us that there is no shortage of oil. Look at your own post.

And if that's the case now, consider what it was last year! at which time I kept saying that there was no current shortages. Your basic argument that we should pay the oil barons a higher price now, because sometimes in the future we will not be in balance. Think about what you are actually saying before you accuse people of wingeing.

 

Regards

 

 

Avenger

 

 

 

 

 

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In reply to: Avenger on Saturday 07/06/08 11:47am

Avenger.....think about it for a moment......if nobody took delivery then how would all the oil make it into the market??????

 

 

Speculators increase volatility in the futures market......however supply and demand will dictate current spot prices ....

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In reply to: Avenger on Saturday 07/06/08 10:47am

Hi Avenger,

In my book it all comes back to supply and demand.

 

Demand keeps rising but supply ( production ) has levelled off since 2005.

 

That is why oil prices are going up.

 

Demand destruction through conservation or a huge depression could bring prices back but the HUGE Asian demand will continue to offset any savings.

 

The world runs on oil and until we have developed the alternatives, the price of oil goes higher.

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