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Peak Oil/Peak Exports


davo22

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In reply to: eliton on Sunday 25/05/08 05:47pm

Bad news from the Bakken - http://bakkenshale.blogspot.com

 

"Data from the EOG McAlmond 1-5H well, sec 5, T155, R89, Mountrail Co., indicates that area is east of the area of oil generation, or the Continuous Reservoir as described by the USGS. The company found virtually no oil shows either in the mid-Bakken or in the shales, indicating that the shales are too shallow to have initiated generation of hydrocarbons. Background gas was only around 30 units when it should be in the thousands. The upper shale is found in this area at a subsea depth of about -6600 ft. Some better shows were found near the bottom of the lower shale, which is about 70 ft below the top of the upper shale. What makes this somewhat surprising is that this area is only about a half dozen miles northeast of active development in the Austin area of Parshall Field"

 

Regarding CNG, a big part of the issue is infrastructure. Yes, we could do viable CNG cars in Australia, with a bunch of old Holdens and Fords with big boots now full of CNG tanks, which are popped out and replaced at various servos, in the same way BBQ propane tanks are ... but it's a chicken-and-egg issue. Phil and similar *are* inefficient, but they dont need the rest of the infrastructure there, just you realising you only go to work and back on your CNG vehicle.

 

Finally, the thing that struck me about CNG in India was the emphasis on the tax advantages - it isnt remarkably cheaper because of anything inherent, but because it's taxed less than petrol ie the same thing that gives LPG the price advantage in Australia.

 

Ian Whitchurch

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Here's an article for DDK1 about ABARE's views of future oil supplies ("there is not a physical limit to supply over the next 30 years...simple as that"). Shame about the geological and financial and efficiency and geographical and technological limits I guess http://www.sharescene.com/html/emoticons/tongue.gif

 

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story...5013871,00.html

 

And taken slightly out of context I am impressed where the boss of ABARE outs himself as the most honest public service manager in Australia: "If I could predict accurately, then I wouldn't be working in the civil service".

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In reply to: Avenger on Saturday 24/05/08 12:17pm

Hi Avenger

 

Now look what you have done with your conspiracy theories. I always knew I had a following in these sites from the authorities. This just confirms it. LOL.

 

From today's age, for those with an open mind and understand English and pricing setting.

The others can please themselves.

 

Nothing will come of it of course, because the only way to stop manipulation is to limit taking positions in essentials such as oil to those who will actually physically deliver and or receive. As the Arabs have been saying for years, there is virtually no connection between supple and demand and the price of oil.

 

Regards

 

Avenger

 

FACED with enormous political pressure to tighten the oversight of energy trading, US federal regulators say they have been investigating oil and derivatives markets for six months to look into potential price manipulation.

 

The revelation came as the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) also announced a series of measures intended to heighten regulatory supervision of energy trading and bring "greater sunshine" into the commodities markets. The commission, which does not typically disclose ongoing investigations, said that since December last year it had been conducting a nationwide inquiry of "practices surrounding the purchase, transportation, storage and trading" of oil contracts. It did not say whom it was investigating, nor when it expected the investigation to be completed.

 

The commission seems keen to tackle concerns raised in Congress this year that oil prices have been somehow artificially lifted by investors' enthusiasm for energy commodities.

 

Oil futures have risen 32% this year and have more than quadrupled since 2003. On Thursday, oil futures fell $US4.41 a barrel to $US126.62 on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Petrol prices touched a national average of $US3.95 a gallon, up from about $US3.20 a gallon a year ago.

 

The commission said the new measures would "improve oversight of the energy futures markets to ensure they reflect fundamental economic forces of supply and demand, free of manipulation and fraud".

 

But some analysts said the rules would do little to reduce volatility in the oil market, or lead to lower prices. The new measures include, for example, an extended agreement with the commission's British counterpart to expand the surveillance of energy futures contracts with delivery points in the United States.

 

The commission's second set of measures would require institutional investors who manage so-called commodity index funds, which are meant to mimic oil prices, to provide monthly reports on their activities, a rule that so far applied only to farm commodities. The measure should help the commission determine whether adjustments to trader reporting or classification were required, it said.

 

The commission said it would also review trading practices for index traders to ensure they were not "adversely impacting the price discovery process, and to determine whether different practices should be employed".

 

But John Dingell, chairman of the US House Committee on Energy and Commerce, said the commission had failed to tackle specific mechanisms that allowed commodity-linked funds to invest in energy markets with minimal amounts of money. Such practices had caused "rampant speculation", he said.

 

"For too long, CFTC has been operating in the dark," Mr Dingell said. "Unfortunately, the CFTC has not proposed how to close off the loopholes that allow commodity index funds and others to take such massive positions that they possibly distort oil futures markets."

 

In recent testimony to Congress, Jeffrey Harris, the commission's chief economist, said that a weak dollar, strong demand from the emerging world economies, geopolitical tensions in oil-producing regions, supply disruptions, and unfavourable weather had contributed to the rise in the price of oil, not market manipulation.

 

NEW YORK TIMES

 

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In reply to: Avenger on Saturday 31/05/08 12:48pm

Avenger,

Amazing what some people will believe eh.

 

I watched this whole thing for about the last 5 years and it is unfolding right before my very eyes.

 

It is not going to be pretty and it doesnt help with Gates telling China to get out of the South China sea.

 

Obama just has to get in to start some dialogue,...not confrontation. Wars are made from oil. And we dont want that.

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From ASPO USA

 

 

3. Declining exports

Newly released information shows that declining world exports of crude oil are likely to become a major problem for importing nations well before world oil production goes into a decline. As the worldÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢s largest importer, the US is particularly vulnerable to this phenomenon as exports from at least three major suppliers --Mexico, Venezuela, and Nigeria-- are dropping.

Last week, the Wall Street Journal ran a story containing a new EIA estimate that the petroleum products exported by the top 15 oil exporters fell by 2.5 percent or 1 million b/d from 2006 to 2007. Some of this reduction is due to depletion of older oil fields, some to political problems and increasing domestic consumption, perhaps a little due to the OPEC cuts of November 2006, and some to lack of sufficient investment to maintain production.

The EIA also reported last week that US crude imports during the first 143 days of 2008 were down by 2.9 percent over 2007 and that petroleum product imports were down by 19.6 percent. The USÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢s top suppliers in March were Canada (1.7 million b/d), Saudi Arabia (1.5 million b/d), Mexico (1.2 million b/d), Nigeria (1.1 million b/d), Venezuela (0.8 million b/d), and Iraq (0.8 million b/d). As exports to the US from Mexico, Venezuela and probably from Nigeria drop, increased imports from Iraq and Saudi Arabia are picking up part of the slack.

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i never been much of a conspiracy theorist.

 

at the moment the USA is screaming manipulation & blaming

traders.

 

But back around the years 1999/2000/2001 oil hit a low

of $15 bbl & in the decade 1991/2001 it hovered around the $20 to $25 mark.

 

the thing was, back then , nobody was complaining that oil was too cheap; or market

manipulators should be making consumers pay more for oil

 

when"s its the other way round the media are all over it

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QUOTE (davo22 @ Tuesday 03/06/08 05:42pm)

Hi davo22,

Whilst I really know that CSG is going to overtake crude oil, the real problem is getting China and the USA to decide on an oil policy.

 

Oil causes wars. And no one likes wars.

 

China has forged contracts with most of USA's suppliers.

 

It is an extremeley worrying situation.

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In reply to: bermuda on Tuesday 03/06/08 09:23pm

Avenger,

 

Lets get physical, physical

I wanna get physical,

Lets get into physical

Lend me your body ya, your body yah

Lend me your body ya,

Lets get physical, physical

I wanna get phisicaaaal.

 

Because thats what happens to out-month contracts when they come in month.

 

When they clock over, someone has to take physical delivery.

 

So, either continue your whining, or explain to me what happens to this allegedly speculator driven market when it hits the target month and someone has to deliver, and someone has to accept.

 

Ian Whitchurch

 

PS Dont bother about the heavy low grade sulfer crap that the Iranians produced with their good stuff. Dont even (expletive deleted) bother. Light sweet or nuttin baby.

 

PPS Bermuda, Canada, Mexico and Venezuala supply most of the US. As long as they can pay the bills and keep demand down to a low roar, they should be OK with that.

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In reply to: davo22 on Wednesday 04/06/08 08:07am

Collapse is a pretty serious description. Recession yes, but don't think collapse (depression?) is going to happen. Listening to todays news, GM is now saying it will have an all electric car on the road in 2010. Honda Civic now largest selling car in US and GM closing down V8 engine plants.

 

Red

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