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trader10

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latest coal settlement prices , courtesy of wolverine from the gcl thread.

Analysts were predicting a large price drop this year , but its looking quite good for

coal producers at the moment.

 

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Semi Soft Coal - Very Firm

Contract Prices Settled - Annual contract coal prices for 2007/08 are more or less settled. Semi soft prices have proved extraordinarily robust.

 

Main Settlements Were - Thermal coal US$55.60/t (+$3); hard coking coal $97/t ($-18); semi hard US$70-73 ($-16); Low Vol PCI US$65-67 (unchanged). Smaller semi soft producers settled at around US$63 (+$5), but Rio Tinto and Xstrata are understood to be holding out for $64-65.

 

Lower Value Coking Coals Fared Well - Thus PCI and in particular semi soft coals achieved much better prices than hard coking coals. The premium of semi soft to thermal increased to US$9/t, from $5.50. Historically it has been $2.

 

Demand is the Driver - In Europe PCI ratios increased. In Korea non hard metallurgical coals now account for 20% of met coal consumption, up from 3% two years ago. In India and China, increased use of local semi soft coals reduced dependence on imported hard coking. In Japan, however, technical limitations restricted such a marked shift. The genesis of the switch goes back to 2005 when a near doubling of hard coking coal prices, and concerns about future availability, pushed steel mills to increase the consumption of alternatives.

 

A Permanent Shift - Probably not. The narrowing gap between hard coking prices may now reverse the trend.

 

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Do you believe that 2008/09 will be a prosperous year for coal, especially thermal coal and maybe even coking coal (mind you I am not an expert). Would you have any suggestions

as to what would be a good buy atm.???? http://www.sharescene.com/html/emoticons/unsure.gif

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In reply to: daggie on Thursday 20/09/07 05:32pm

daggie

 

I notice the volume/interest has been up the last week in coal stocks, but so also has just about everything as the market in general recovers.

I like the these for the immediate future going on TA.

COK FLX GCL MCC NHC RSP SRL WES

 

Below is the rest of my coal watchlist. Not all are pure coal plays, but all do have coal interests. I like CEY mt, but better off waiting for the st retracement to end first.

CEY CNA WHC

Cheers

I hold a couple of these atm

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In reply to: hungry on Friday 21/09/07 08:07am

daggie, another to look at is GUJ in which a friendly takeover is occurring by INR . Well worth reading up on both.....cheers...plus I was told a trade of 5,000,000 or more shares went through at close but cant confirm that...cheers

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UPDATE 1-Xstrata fixes '08 coal contracts with Korean gencos

 

Thursday September 27, 2007, 6:44 pm

 

 

 

 

SYDNEY/SEOUL, Sept 27 (Reuters) - Xstrata Plc XTA.L, the world's largest thermal coal producer, has settled 2008 thermal coal supply contracts with two Korean utilities at prices nearly a third higher than a year ago, two sources said on Thursday.

 

State-owned utilities Korea South East Power Co (KOSEP) and Korea East West Power Co (KEWPO) have agreed to buy a total of 2.5 million tonnes of coal from Xstrata's New Lands coal mine at $68.50 a tonne and $65.50 a tonne for coal from Rolleston mine, they said.

 

The latest settlement price is up around 34 percent over the $51 a tonne paid for the previous year.

 

A growing supply squeeze in the Pacific market has forced Asian utilities to pay more for coal, which has seen its long-term contract prices jump as high as 34 percent and spot prices surge about 30 percent.

 

Expectations of a worsening supply shortage next year has also prompted Korean and Taiwan utilities to secure their 2008 supply contracts months ahead of traditional negotiation periods.

 

State-run Taipower has signed a string of long-term contracts ranging from six to 10 years to buy 17 million tonnes of thermal coal from Australian and Chinese suppliers, a company official said on Thursday. [iD:nSYD255742]

 

Industry sources said Xstrata's settlement at $68.50 a tonne was higher than rival Peabody's BTU.N and Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO.ax) RIO.L's agreed prices of about $66.50 because Xstrata's New Lands and Rolleston mines were in the northern state of Queensland, which gave buyers a freight advantage.

 

 

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