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MARKET OUTLOOK - Global & Local


mminion

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not sure it will be a collapse; just a suppression of demand and reallocation of scarce resources lol

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US stocks tumbled, with the Dow falling 880 points in New York, as faster than expected inflation opens the door wider to higher interest rates. The consumer price index increased 8.6 per cent from a year earlier in a broad based advance, Labor Department data showed. The widely followed inflation gauge rose 1 per cent from a month earlier, topping all estimates. Shelter, food and gas were the largest contributors. The core CPI, which strips out the more volatile food and energy components, rose 0.6 per cent from the prior month and 6 per cent from a year ago, also above forecasts.

 

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BEAR TERRITORY ....Market prices in a more aggressive Fed

Markets are pricing in a 30 per cent chance of a jumbo 75 basis point rate rise by the Federal Reserve this week. Bond yields have soared, with the US two year leaping 55.2 basis points since Thursday to 3.36%. The yield on the US 10 year is up 31.9 basis points in that time to 3.36%.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 876.05 points, or 2.79 per cent, to 30,516.74, the S&P 500 lost 151.23 points, or 3.88 per cent, to 3749.63 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 530.80 points, or 4.68 per cent, to 10,809.

ASX futures down 296 points or 4.27 per cent to 6632

  • AUD -1.9% to 69.24 US cents
  • Bitcoin -15.4% to $US23,204.98
  • On Wall St at 4pm: Dow -2.8% ; S&P 500 -3.9% ; Nasdaq -4.7%
  • In New York: BHP -4.2% ; Rio -4% ; Atlassian -9.5%
  • Tesla -7.1% ; Apple -3.8% ; Amazon -5.5% ; Netflix 7.2%
  • In Europe: Stoxx 50 -2.7% ; FTSE -1.5% ; CAC -2.7% ;  DAX -2.4%
  • Spot gold -2.3% to $US1828.45 an ounce
  • Brent crude +0.4% to $US122.54 a barrel
  • Iron ore -3.5% to $US136.60 a tonne
  • 10-year yield: US 3.36% ; Australia 3.67% ; Germany 1.63%
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It is the BOND market that is doing the damage.  Jerome Powell had carefully telegraphed interest rate rises over four years, but now looks likely to abandon gradualism and move more forcefully to stamp out inflation along with growing concerns that it will persist.

The Fed will announce a decision and publish fresh forecasts at 2pm on Wednesday (4am AEST on Thursday) in Washington. Powell will hold a press conference 30 minutes later.

ASX futures down 50 points or 0.8 per cent to 6627

  • AUD -0.8% to 68.70 US cents
  • Bitcoin -5.2% to $US22,163.83
  • On Wall St: Dow -0.5% ; S&P 500 -0.4% ; Nasdaq +0.2%
  • In Europe: Stoxx 50 -0.8% ; FTSE -0.3% ; CAC -1.2% ; DAX -0.9%
  • Spot gold -0.5% to $US1810.77 an ounce
  • Brent crude -0.2% to $US122.04 a barrel
  • Iron ore -1.8% to $US134.20 a tonne
  • 10 year yield: US 3.47% ; Australia 3.95% ; Germany 1.74%
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  • 2 weeks later...

Looking to be negative FY numbers as the bad news and uncertainty keeps coming. Bond Yields are flat.. Commodities are staying robust 

ASX futures down 79 points or 1.2per cent to 6597

  • AUD -0.2% to 69.12 US cents
  • Bitcoin -2.2% to $US20,337
  • On Wall St: Dow -1.3% ; S&P 500 -1.8% ; Nasdaq -2.7%
  • In Europe: Stoxx 50 +0.3% ; FTSE +0.9% ; DAX +0.3% ; CAC +0.6%
  • Spot gold -0.1% to $US1,820.36 /oz
  • Brent crude +2.7% to $US118.18 a barrel
  • US oil +2.1% to $US111.89 a barrel
  • Iron ore +4.1% to $US124.80 a tonne
  • 2 year yield: US 3.12% ; Australia 2.73%
  • 5year yield: US 3.25% ; Australia 3.47%
  • 10 year yield: US 3.20% ; Australia 3.73% ; Germany 1.62%

 

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