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MARKET OUTLOOK - Global & Local


mminion

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After the historic ho hum interest rate rise in the RBA cash rate to 0.35% yesterday, the longer bonds also rose. Dollar went up, market sagged but not too much.

ASX futures up 42 points or 0.6 per cent to 7327

  • AUD +0.6% to 70.95 US cents
  • Bitcoin on bitstamp.net -1.9% to $US37,682.54
  • On Wall St: Dow +0.2% ;  S&P 500 +0.5% ;Nasdaq +0.2%
  • In Europe: Stoxx 50 +0.8% : FTSE +0.2% ; CAC +0.8% ; DAX +0.7%
  • Spot gold +0.2% to $US1867.53/oz
  • Brent crude -2.3% to $US105.08 a barrel
  • US oil -2.5% to $US102.50 a barrel
  • 2 year yield: US 2.78% ; Australia 2.72%
  • 5 year yield: US 3.02% : Australia 3.19%
  • 10 year yield: US 2.98% ; Australia 3.39% ; Germany 0.96%

 

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Market Highlights

(or lowlights. S&P 500 fell below 4000 points as Wall Street rout gathered pace. AU Dollar below 70c, Bitcoin in the basket, Commodities retreating, Bonds hitting multi year highs)

ASX futures down 99 points or 1.4 per cent to 7003

  • AUD -1.8% to 69.50 US cents
  • Bitcoin on bitstamp.net -8.3% to $US31,695.11
  • On Wall St: Dow -2% ; S&P 500 -3.2% ; Nasdaq -4.3%
  • In Europe: Stoxx 50 -2.8% FTSE -2.3% CAC -2.8% DAX -2.2%
  • Spot gold -1.4% to $US1858.46 an ounce
  • Brent crude -5.9% to $US106.19 a barrel
  • US oil -5.5% to $US103.28 a barrel
  • Iron ore -5.5% to $US131.35 a tonne
  • 2 year yield: US 2.59% ; Australia 2.72%
  • 5 year yield: US 2.95% ; Australia 3.24%
  • 10 year yield: US 3.03% ; Australia 3.56% ; Germany 1.09%
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What I don’t understand is, why the gold price is going down as well. I, perhaps naively, thought that buying gold was a hedge against stock retreats.

Just another thing I don’t understand!!!

Cheers

J

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The Emperor has only been wearing two skimpy items of clothing for some time, and the undies have been QEased to the point of dropping., Now his striptease, which has been largely ignored by the market, includes a sneak mamorial flash as the Inflated bra lifts ...

Fundamentals have been ignored for too long with typical peak talk of 'This time it's different'. Even during the Corona crash one of my favorite measurments the CAPE for the S&P never actually got to cheap levels. It just went from alarmingly overpriced (in the 30's) back to something around the long term average (16 - 17). 

Just a couple of weeks ago I had a family member ask me if they should enter the Australian market with a large chunk of money they have been saving to build a house.

My response was a flat 'No' and pointed out the market is still way overpriced even after the recent prolonged drops in the US. And told them to look at the CAPE and make sure you understand what it represents. Any bulls that do so should be scared ...

 

https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe

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are we there yet? Big tech and crypto taking the knocks.

(Atlassian -6.5% ; Tesla -8.3% ; Apple -5.2% ' Amazon -3.2% ; Netflix -6.4% ; Meta -4.5% ; Microsoft -3.3% ; Alphabet -0.5%)

ASX futures down 35 points or 0.5 per cent to 7010

  • AUD -0.1% to 69.33 US cents
  • Bitcoin -6.6% to $US29,023.00
  • On Wall St: Dow -1% ; S&P 500 -1.7% ; Nasdaq -3.2%
  • In Europe: Stoxx 50 +2.6% ; FTSE +1.4% ; CAC +2.5% ; DAX +2.2%
  • Spot gold +0.8% to $US1852.50 an ounce
  • Brent crude +5.5% to $US108.10 a barrel
  • US oil +6.5% to $US106.23 a barrel
  • Iron ore +4.2% to $US133.50 a tonne
  • 2 year yield: US 2.64% ; Australia 2.63%
  • 5 year yield: US 2.90% ; Australia 3.15%
  • 10 year yield: US 2.92% ; Australia 3.50% ; Germany 0.98%
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  • 2 weeks later...

ASX futures up 69 points or 0.97 per cent to 7176

  • AUD +0.07% to 70.94 US cents
  • Bitcoin -0.9% to $US29,446.96
  • On Wall St: Dow +1.6% ; S&P 500 +2% ; Nasdaq +2.7%
  • In Europe: Stoxx 50 +1.7% ; FTSE +0.6% ; CAC +1.8% ; DAX +1.6%
  • Spot gold -0.2% to $US1849.83 oz
  • Brent crude +2.9% to $US117.32 a barrel
  • US oil +3.4% to $US114.06 a barrel
  • Iron ore -1.6% to $US131.25 a tonne
  • 2 year yield: US 2.47% ; Australia 2.34%
  • 5 year yield: US 2.70% ; Australia 2.93%
  • 10 year yield: US 2.74% ; Australia 3.20% ; Germany 0.99%
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Dimon, from JPMorgan, isn't optimistic.

Quote
"Right now it's kind of sunny, things are doing fine. Everyone thinks the Fed can handle this," Dimon said at a Bernstein conference. "That hurricane is right out there down the road coming our way." 
"We just don't know if it's a minor one or Superstorm Sandy. You better brace yourself," Dimon said, adding that JPMorgan Chase (JPM) is preparing for a "non-benign environment" and "bad outcomes."

Cheers

J

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After yesterday when the RBA lifted overnight rate 50 pts to 0.85%, and the ASX fell 116, with a big drop at 2:30pm, the talk now is about future rate increases. And inflationary pressure .

ASX futures up 51 points or 0.7 per cent to 7152

  • AUD +0.6% to 72.34 US cents
  • Bitcoin -0.2% to $US31,296.23
  • On Wall St: Dow +0.8% ; S&P 500 +1% ; Nasdaq +0.9%
  • In Europe: Stoxx 50 -0.8% ; FTSE -0.1% ; CAC -0.7% ; DAX -0.7%
  • Spot gold +0.6% to $US1852.28 oz
  • Brent crude +0.1% to $US119.63 a barrel
  • Iron ore +0.3% to $US147.25 a tonne
  • 10 year yield: US 2.98% ; Australia 3.55% ; Germany 1.29%

 

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