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MARKET OUTLOOK - Global & Local


mminion

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we are uneasily slouching towards more low points

US stocks fell sharply after the November jobs report missed expectations but did not alter the outlook for a faster taper and as more cases of omicron were detected across the globe.

  • On Wall St: Dow -0.2% ; S&P 500 -0.8% ; Nasdaq -1.9%
  • In New York: BHP -5.5% ; Rio Tinto -4.4% ; Atlassian -5.3%
  • Tesla -6.4% ; Microsoft -2% ; NYSE Fang -3.6% ; Netflix -2.3%

All three major benchmarks attracted buyers late in the day. The Dow rallied 180 points in the final 10 minutes.

While the US economy added just 210,000 new jobs last month, less than half what most economists expected, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis president James Bullard said the report overall was positive

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The household survey was up 1.1 million. That suggests there are probably revisions coming to the nonfarm payrolls side.

That comment bolstered expectations among some investors that the Fed will accelerate its taper and puts the US central bank on a path to lifting interest rates perhaps earlier and at a faster pace.

The Australian dollar was 1.4 per cent lower to US69.98¢

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ASX futures were up 54 points or 0.7 per cent to 7385

  • AUD +0.9% to 71.14 US cents
  • Bitcoin on bitstamp.net +3.6% to $US50,903.52
  • On Wall St at 3.10pm: Dow 1.5% ; S&P 500 2.1% ; Nasdaq 2.9%
  • In New York: BHP +3.8% ; Rio +3.7% ; Atlassian +7.7%
  • Tesla +4.1% ; Apple +2.8% ; Amazon +3% ; Microsoft +2.4%
  • In Europe: Stoxx 50 +3.4% ; FTSE +1.5% ; CAC +2.9% ; DAX +2.8%
  • Spot gold +0.3% to $US1783.34/oz
  • Brent crude +3.9% to $US75.94 a barrel
  • US oil +4.6% to $US72.65 a barrel
  • Iron ore +8.3% to $US111.34 a tonne
  • 2 year yield: US 0.69% ; Australia 0.66%
  • 5 year yield: US 1.25% ; Australia 1.34%
  • 10 year yield: US 1.48% ; Australia 1.64% ; Germany -0.38%

There, omicron not as bad as thought!! And Bonds not kicking out, giving a breather for the panickers.

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The emergence of the omicron COVID 19 variant is a source of uncertainty but is unlikely to derail Australia’s economic recovery, which is occurring faster than expected, Reserve Bank governor Philip Lowe said. The strength of the recovery makes it more likely the central bank will raise rates earlier than expected, with Dr Lowe dropping his previous outlook for underlying inflation to be no higher than 2.5 per cent at the end of 2023.

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The RBA held the overnight cash rate at the record low rate of 0.1 per cent at its board meeting on Tuesday, and in a statement from the governor said the board would not increase the cash rate until actual inflation is sustainably within the 2 to 3 per cent target range.

 

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While fund managers shifted to more defensive assets in December, they’re are being more cautious, not panicking.

Global growth and profit optimism have improved, with investors forecasting that rate increases will hit inflation and not economic recovery, while the majority of survey participants see the current spike in prices as transitory.

In fact 55% of investors in the latest survey still see inflation as transitory, and only 6 out of 100 expect a recession in the next 12 months.

https://www.sharecafe.com.au/2021/12/15/us-fundies-turn-defensive/

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No Santa rally this (omicron) year

ASX futures down 30 points or 0.4 per cent to 7165 

  • AUD flat to 71.16 US cents
  • Bitcoin on bitstamp.net $US46,404.79
  • On Wall St: Dow -1.8% ; S&P 500 -1.6% ; Nasdaq -1.7%
  • In Europe: Stoxx 50 -1.3% ; FTSE -1% ; DAX -1.9% ; CAC -0.8%
  • In New York: BHP -1.1% ; Rio -1.6% ; Atlassian -2.6%
  • Tesla +0.5% ; Apple -0.8% ; Amazon -2.1% ; Alphabet -1.1%
  • Spot gold -0.2% to $US1,794.03 an ounce
  • Brent crude -4.8% to $US69.97 a barrel
  • US oil -5.8% to $US66.77 a barrel
  • Iron ore +3.3% to $US123.51 a tonne
  • 2-year yield: US 0.62% ; Australia 0.59%
  • 5-year yield: US 1.15% ; Australia 1.30%
  • 10-year yield: US 1.40% ; Australia 1.53% ; Germany -0.38
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  • 2 weeks later...

for the last day of 2021, the S&P/ASX 200 slid 68.9 points or 0.9 per cent to 7444.64 on Friday. The gain in 2021 was 13%

  • AUD +0.2% to 72.68 US cents
  • Bitcoin on bitstamp.net -2.8% to $US45,984.93
  • On Wall St:  S&P 500 slid 0.3 per cent to finish at 4766.18.
  • The S&P 500 gained 27 per cent since the last trading day of 2020. The Dow added 18.7 per cent for the year, and the Nasdaq gained 21.4 per cent.
  • The pan European STOXX 600 benchmark ended the year 22% higher.
  • Spot gold +0.7% to $US1826.95/oz
  • Brent crude -2.1% to $US77.84 a barrel
  • US oil -2.3% to $US75.20 a barrel
  • Iron ore +1.2% to $US120.75 a tonne
  • 2 year yield: US 0.73% ; Australia 0.56%
  • 5 year yield: US 1.26% ; Australia 1.31%
  • 10 year yield: US 1.51% ; Australia 1.66% ; Germany -0.19%
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  • 2 weeks later...

Gold going nowhere fast, Bitcoin rather underwhelming, but it is the long Bonds that are the challenge. Ten years reaching higher in yield. Why, even German Bunds are moving away from negative yield

....and SPI telling us the ASX likely to fall today ......... 41 pts

Overnight market highlights:

  • AUD -0.2% to 71.70 US cents
  • Bitcoin on bitstamp.net -2.8% to $US41,357.46
  • On Wall St at 1.30m: Dow -1.1% ; S&P 500 -1.3% ; Nasdaq -1.5%
  • In Europe: Stoxx 50 -1.5% ; FTSE -0.5% ; CAC -1.4% ; DAX -1.1%
  • Spot gold +0.2% to $US1800.07/oz
  • Brent crude -1% to $US80.92 a barrel
  • US oil -0.8% to $US78.27 a barrel
  • Iron ore -1.5% to $US125.45 a tonne
  • 2 year yield: US 0.89% ; Australia 0.67%
  • 5 year yield: US 1.53% ; Australia 1.51%
  • 10 year yield: US 1.78% ; Australia 1.91% ; Germany -0.04%

 

 

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  • 2 weeks later...

US stocks fell again, capping the worst week since the outbreak of the pandemic. Tech shares bearing the brunt of the selloff amid shaky company earnings and prospects for higher US interest rates.

The S&P 500 closed below its 200 day moving average, a key technical level, for the first time since 2020.

In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 dropped 2.9 per cent to 7175.8 this week, with the Friday loss at 2.3 per cent, or 166.6 points.

ASX futures fell 49 points or 0.7 per cent to 7006;

  •  
  • Bitcoin at $US38,013.02.
  • On Wall St: Dow -1.3% ; S&P 500 -1.9% ; Nasdaq -2.7%
  • In Europe: Stoxx 50 -1.6% ; FTSE -1.2% ; CAC -1.8% ; DAX -1.9%
  • Spot gold -0.4% to $US1832.39/oz
  • Brent crude -0.8% to $US87.67 a barrel
  • US oil -0.9% to $US84.75 a barrel
  • Iron ore +2.8% to $US137.40 a tonne
  • 2 year yield: US 1.01% ; Australia 0.83%
  • 5 year yield: US 1.56% ; Australia 1.58%
  • 10 year yield: US 1.77% ; Australia 1.91% ; Germany -0.07%
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On 1/24/2022 at 7:47 AM, nipper said:

Ursa Major or The Big Dipper?

there was quite a selloff last week, will it continue? Or just rotation out of overpriced risk into a value setting?

Two days of falls, amounting to some 5% drop on what was already weak and faltering. 

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