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MARKET OUTLOOK - Global & Local


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In reply to: nohoper on Monday 15/09/08 10:55pm

they told me there is big carry trade unwinding, i told them that it is all bs, if it's unwinding they would done long ago. whoever still tolk about this crap must be shorting aussie big time, but they didn't see Lehman's rackege coming.

US DOLLAR will tank soon i guess!!



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In reply to: early birds on Monday 15/09/08 11:43pm

It is the carrying trade unwinding - when you are talking about hundreds of billions of dollars in a market the size of Australia you simply can't press a button and say we're out of here! The other thing is that not everyone is going to believe that the market is going to tank at the same time, you and NH are perfect local examples of the "we're not really facing any serious problems brigade", and there are just as many non-believers running hedge funds, pensions and banks that are waking up to the seriousness of the global problems that we are facing. Periodically as more bad news comes to the surface another tranche of these non-believers will freak out and hit the sell button and set off another wave of selling.


Sure you can believe that there is vast conspiracy of secrete hedge funds out to transfer wealth from poor small investors to greedy mega banks, maybe the Chinese are all behind it trying to orchistrate all this market turbulence so they can swoop in with all their trillions of USD and pick up real assets on the cheap, or maybe it is that oft talked of conspiracy of Jewish Bankers, the Rothschilds playing master puppeters?


If you believe any of that nonsense you are probably sitting at the computer with a tinfoil skull cap and reflective sunglasses to prevent the satellites from reading your thoughts and the internet from looking into your eyes, but the simplest theory is most often the most likely to be correct (Occam's razor - go look it up). In this case it is massive deleveraging and as an extension of that the carry trade being unwound. Period.


Simple as that.



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In reply to: disco stu on Tuesday 16/09/08 09:18am



In this case it is massive deleveraging and as an extension of that the carry trade being unwound. Period. Simple as that. - I agree. So what's the problem here?


you and NH are perfect local examples of the "we're not really facing any serious problems brigade" - this part is not necessary.


In this forum, we are like salesmen, you sell your ware and I sell mine. So far I have been very careful with what I said. But if you have found anything that I said that you do not like, raise the point, ask me to clarify, if I find your view agreeable, I will say so. There is no need to turn aggro.


I said the local banks are faring ok and I have shown you the chart that shows you the price drop of each major banks. I think you can see how much each has dropped, now, if you don't think they are okay, please point out to me which one is not okay and why, I am quite happy and willing to learn from you. Let's keep our ego out of the discussion and I am sure everyone will get on fine.



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The 613 billion damage...


Topping the list of Lehman's unsecured debts is approximately $138 billion in senior bond debt, followed by another $17 billion in subordinated and junior bond debt, according to documents filed at 1:45 am ET in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Southern District of New York.


The bankruptcy filing by the Wall Street firm followed a failed effort to find a buyer or persuade the U.S government to bail it out of massive real-estate- related losses. The bankruptcy petition said Lehman's assets are worth $639 billion.


Citibank and the Bank of New York are trustees for the huge load of bond debt that tops Lehman's list of unsecured liabilities, court documents say.


AOZORA of Tokyo is listed as the largest bank lender, with a loan of $463 million. Next is Mizuho Corporate Bank Ltd. of Tokyo, with a $289 million loan.


Additionally, Lehman listed as unsecured debts a $275 million bank loan from Citibank, a $250 million bank loan from BNP Paribas, a $231 million bank loan from Japan's Shinsei Bank Ltd., a $185 million bank loan from UFJ Bank Limited of Japan, a $177 million bank loan from Sumitomo Mitsubishi Banking Corp. of Tokyo and a series of other sizable bank loans.


Mizuho Corporate Bank, Shinkin Central Bank, and Chuo Mitsui Trust & Banking, all of Japan, the Bank of Nova Scotia's Singapore branch, Lloyds Bank in New York, Hua Nan Commercial Bank of Taipei and Bank of China, New York Branch, are all on the list of unsecured creditors owed more than $50 million by Lehman.


** the Japanese banks must be hurting...

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has Lehman collapsed???

a month ago the courts said the toxic paper writers had to buy back from the american councils/charitees/hospitals/etc all the toxic paper they had sold them. No! it didnt mean we in aus would get our moneys back. But HA HA neither will the yanks.

Note none of the Lehmanns subsidiaries are closing nor declaring bankruptcy protection.

Its just another way to not pay back for the poison papers.

Plutocracy..government by the rich for the rich...

and they call it freedom!


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