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MARKET OUTLOOK - Global & Local


mminion

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The market looks to be getting REALLY nervous...

 

The ASX200 is at a record high (it's following the US markets)

The AUS is weakening against the US (and therefore there is the threat that money will start flowing out of the Australian market back into the US)

I saw WB has been making some noise RE: He thinks the US market has issues.

Metal/mineral prices are dropping (yet another factor against the Australian economy)

 

Anybody else got any thoughts ?

 

Matt

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Yeah,

1. I think the dow and asx have hit resistance- pretty big rises recently.

2. Full moon 8/03/04 - Possible Change of Trend- Why didnt Yogi mention this?

3. $US dollar index appears to have double bottomed and double top breakeat confirmed -

tentavely so far. http://stockcharts.com/gallery?$USD

4. Signal watch http://www.signalwatch.com/markets/markets-dow.asp

5. Cash is king

fumod

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The market is certainly spooked at the moment.

 

It is impossible to escape the pullback over the last couple of days as it seems to be affecting even stocks where fundamentals are still excellent (i.e oil producers).

 

However, I think that because the A$ was very high it stopped a lot of investment in Australian shares from overseas. I have spoken to numerous investors who have been put off by this factor alone.

 

To be honest I think the market is an ass at the moment but it is impossible to argue with it. I think it is a little of a self fulfilling prophecy in these downturns as it is in the upturns.

 

At the end of the day I would expect the main driver of many mining companies to remain strong. That factor is China. Having spoken to a few Chinese manufacturers they are crying out for raw materials. I do note that many may have paused their buying decision waiting for a fall in commodity prices as well as more favourable exchange rate conditions. Once buying resumes I would suggest metals and other commodities will re-test recent highs.

 

One factor I have noted in the stocks I follow is that despite the pull back, it is on low volume. That suggests that the buyers have paused and the sellers are being forced to get what they can.

 

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I agree too..

 

With the S&P500, it looks like 1120 will be the key level, and whether it can hold here.

The last intermediate low on 24 Feb was broken with last nights action.

 

Last night was decisive IMO, in that the DOW confirmed a break of the uptred and we now have a lower low in place following a lower peak.

Volume has increased over the last 3 trading sessions aswell.

 

It certainly does appear that there has been distribution going on since the start of the year.

 

Interesting times..

 

Livas1

 

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Guys we need to remember the media love to drum these type of things up..

 

How many people REALISE Spanish elections are this weekend ?

 

It's the normal spanish terror groups.... I'm sure if the IRA where still bombing England the media would be first to blame Al Quaeda

 

Anyhow the market was not feeling good EVEN before this happen... not a nice way to go to the weekend

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IN REPLY TO A POST BY theflasherman, Thu 11/03/04 10:59am

Yep I also agree Flash, I'm finding it difficult to select 3 stocks for this months comp because every stock has had such a solid run.

I'm pulling some cash out today and sitting it on the side lines.

Realistly the market has been taking a canning for the last 2-3 weeks with punters moving into defensive stocks.

 

I still feel the market will continue it's upward direction over the next 6 months, but we may see some short term retraces on quality stocks, most stocks have/or are about to go X-Div which is also creating some pressure.

 

Any short term pullback should be seen as an opportunity http://www.asxboard.com/html/emoticons/wink.gif

 

All the best, Tex.

 

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IN REPLY TO A POST BY mminion, Fri 12/03/04 07:22am

Don't think it's a beat-up this time Matt. From the ABC website a short time ago:

 

 

'Al Qaeda' claims Madrid blasts: report

 

A statement attributed to Al Qaeda and sent to a London-based newspaper has claimed responsibility for a series of deadly bombings in Madrid.

 

Ten simultaneous blasts ripped through four packed commuter trains at peak hour, killing 190 people and injuring 1,247 others.

 

The letter, which called the attacks "Operation Death Trains", was sent to the Al-Quda Al-Arabi newspaper.

 

"We have succeeded in infiltrating the heart of crusader Europe and struck one of the bases of the crusader alliance," it said.

 

There was no way of authenticating the letter, a copy of which was faxed to Reuters's office in Dubai by the newspaper.

 

The letter bore the signature "Abu Hafs al-Masri Brigades/Al Qaeda".

 

The newspaper received similar letters from the same brigade claiming responsibility on behalf of Al Qaeda for a November bombing of two synagogues in Turkey and the August bombing of the UN headquarters in Baghdad.

 

Koran tape

 

In Madrid, Spanish officials say they have found seven detonators and a tape in the Arabic language in a van which may be linked to the 10 simultaneous blasts.

 

Spanish Interior Minister Angel Acebes says the van was found in the east of the Spanish capital.

 

He says the tape contained recordings of verses from the Koran.

 

Mr Acebes says authorities are not ruling out any line of investigation in their probe of the bomb blasts.

 

"The conclusion of this morning that pointed to the terrorist organisation [ETA] right now is still the main line of investigation," he said.

 

"[but] I have given the security forces instructions not to rule out anything."

 

Earlier, Mr Acebes had said there was "no doubt" the Basque separatist group ETA was responsible for the attacks.

 

He says the Koranic verses were those "usually used to teach the Koran" and he left open the possibility that the tape might have been planted to mislead authorities.

 

The van had been stolen from the southern town of Alcala de Henares, which was the point of origin for the four trains targeted in the bomb attacks, Mr Acebes said.

 

There has been no claim of responsibility for the attacks, the worst to hit Europe since the 1988 bombing of a US plane over Lockerbie, Scotland that killed 270.

 

Militants

 

Officials had earlier brushed aside suggestions that Muslim militants angry at Spain's support for the US-led war in Iraq could have planted the bombs.

 

The blasts - which come three days before Prime Minister Jose Maria Aznar's Government faces national elections - triggered fears in world financial markets that Al Qaeda was responsible.

 

US intelligence agencies say it is too early to say who was responsible but see the hallmarks of both ETA and Al Qaeda.

 

One US official, who declined to be named, said: "There are characteristics of each. You have multiple attacks, multiple explosions in different locations in a short period of time which is very Al Qaeda-ish."

 

At the huge Atocha station in central Madrid, ambulance driver Enrique Sanchez said: "The train was cut open like a can of tuna. We didn't know who to treat first. There was a lot of blood, a lot of blood."

 

Passenger Ana Maria Mayor's voice cracked as she told reporters: "I saw a baby torn to bits."

 

The other blasts occurred at El Pozo station in southern Madrid and at Santa Eugenia in the south-east of the capital.

 

A sombre Mr Aznar called on Spaniards, who have protested in their hundreds of thousands against past attacks by ETA, to take to the streets on Friday and vowed the Government would arrest the "criminals" behind the bombings.

 

The radical Basque party, Batasuna, accused by the Government of being an integral part of ETA, said it "absolutely rejected" the attack and was convinced ETA was not responsible.

 

Terrorist group

 

ETA (Euskadi ta Askatasuna) has killed about 850 people since 1968 in its fight for a separate Basque homeland in north-western Spain and south-western France, and has been branded a terrorist group by the United States and the European Union.

 

If the Basque group was responsible for the bombings, it would be its deadliest attack, far exceeding the 21 people it killed in a supermarket blast in Barcelona in 1987.

 

Mr Aznar called an emergency Cabinet meeting and his conservative Popular Party suspended its election campaign, which had focused on a tougher stance against ETA.

 

Many political analysts say that if ETA was responsible for the attack, it would favour the Popular Party in the election because of its hard line against the group.

 

"If, however, the rumours about Al Qaeda gain credence, then things would be perceived in a very different way," pollster Julian Santamaria said.

 

Mr Aznar defied main opposition parties and huge public anti-war sentiment to back the Iraq war.

 

Some experts on ETA said the bombings did not fit the group's usual profile for attacks. ETA has frequently warned of its attacks in advance.

 

In October, two audio tapes purportedly from bin Laden said the al Qaeda had the "right to respond at any suitable time and place" against countries backing Washington over Iraq.

 

The Australian Department of Foreign Affairs says it is not aware of any Australians being caught up in the blasts.

 

A spokeswoman says embassy staff are keeping in touch with local authorities.

 

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