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In reply to: Monteverdi on Tuesday 02/10/07 09:15pm

I agree with you wholeheartly M. Gold is no fiat currency and as I have said before Silver is predicted to narrow the Silver/Gold ratio.

What if Petro dollars become Euro dollars over time and places like Iran still threaten to sell their Oil in Euros !!!

Marc Faber seems to be the only one who fully understands what should be done.

Will be an interesting period after the Beijing Olympics and the US elections. Gold heading towards 4 figures !!!! and the Greenback in reverse.

Like you I continue to hold my Gold and Silver. http://www.sharescene.com/html/emoticons/biggrin.gif

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In reply to: neutron on Tuesday 02/10/07 09:06pm

neutron, guess we have similar view about politics and economies.

i'm not a commodity bull when Benny took over the Fed's job, untill he on his knees when polies and big CEOs corered him. thought he can fend them off, but noooop----0.5+0.5 rate cut and comes up with "i can give you more if you want it". so disapointed.


here is something i've been geting every week for more than two years,



The gold bull market remains alive and well. In fact, it is prospering. As has been the case for many years now, the basic bull trend in gold is being driven by a bear cycle in the U.S. dollar. The FOMC will meet in another month. While some analysts have been skeptical about the chances for another rate cut ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã‚¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬Ãƒâ€Â¦ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã¢â‚¬Å“ we believe the odds greatly favor a cut of at least 25 basis points on October 31. As the Fed cuts rates, it will continue to eat away at the base of buyers in the dollar. Not only will lower rates be seen as a negative (in terms of the differentials between U.S. rates and foreign rates) they will also be seen as inflationary. That is a double whammy for gold. It could help to push the metal to $800 or higher by early 2008. We have been aggressively long the sector for many years now. Along the way, we have ridden through some difficult consolidations and corrections. If gold heads up to our intermediate-term target of $800.00, we could finally be in a good position to take some profits and then step aside for a bit. We will see how things develop from here. FridayÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢s employment report should keep Wall Street on edge in the days ahead. Any evidence that the Fed will be able to (or forced to) cut rates will be bearish for the U.S. dollar and thus bullish for gold, silver and the mining stocks.




Spot gold closed on Friday at $743.10, up by $12.10(1.7%) on the trading week. The U.S. Dollar Index (cash) closed at 77.70, down by 0.87(1.1%). The euro closed at $1.4274, up by 1.3%. The U.S. dollar closed at 114.80 yen, down by 0.5%. December gold closed at $750.00, up by $11.10(1.5%). Buy. December silver closed at $13.92, up by $0.30(2.2%). Buy. October platinum closed at $1395.20, up by $63.60(4.8%). Hold.




The HUI AMEX Gold Bugs Index closed at 392.97, down by 6.76(1.7%). The XAU Gold and Silver Index closed at 168.75, down by 2.80(1.6%). As we discussed last week, Newmont Mining has created a near-term drag on the HUI and the broad sector. Shares of Newmont closed on Friday at $44.73, down by $2.83(6.0%) on the week. We are staying with this senior metals producer during the time ahead. We believe that our predicted rally in gold to $760.00 or higher could give us a chance to sell NEM above the $50.00 level. With its high costs and limited production/reserves growth outlook, Newmont is likely going to have to look toward acquisitions during the next year or two. Perhaps it will even combine with one of its senior peers. Despite its recent setback, NEM is still above its 200-day moving average. Remember, the stock was trading down near $38.50 about three months ago. It was down near $13.00 when the sector bottomed out back in late 2000. Newmont has come a long way since that bear cycle low. We might not get a chance to sell NEM near its February 2006 all-time high of $61.95. However, the stock has been a winner during the long bull cycle in gold and silver.




NYMEX November crude oil closed at $81.66, up by $0.04(0.1%). November natural gas closed at $6.87, down by $0.12(1.7%). The XOI Oil Stock Index closed at 1440.15, down by 29.53(2.0%). Our main ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Â¦ÃƒƒÂ¢Ãƒ¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…âہ“watch stockÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚ in the alternative energy sector - Pacific Ethanol (PEIX-NASDAQ) - closed on Friday at $9.62, down by $0.32(3.2%) on the week. While we are quite sure that alternative energy is going to be a huge growth area during the years and decades ahead, the stocks are going to move based on micro events and trends in the near-term. Right now, companies such as Pacific Ethanol face several near-term problems. Corn (the material that most of U.S. ethanol is derived from) remains high in price. At the same time, new production capacity for ethanol is helping to increase the supply of that fuel. This is setting up a situation where PEIXÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢s costs are going up and yet the price of its product (ethanol) could be pressured by over supply




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In reply to: early birds on Tuesday 02/10/07 11:00pm

Brad Setser has another post today about the move away from the USD as the reserve currency:




If China blinks and allows the RMB to appreciate against the USD then perhaps the SGD and the YEN will also be allowed to strengthen. Also I think this would cause a rush of inflation into Hong Kong may cause them to reconsider their peg with the USD.



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From the latest Dines Letter, received a few minutes ago:


"It is especially impressive to bulls that goldÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢s soaring

price comes despite the central bankers having sold 460

tonnes of gold in the last year and, at these heights, every

one of those sales can already be looked back on as a

mistake. Truly, central bankers bring something extra to

their jobs, even if it is only an extra chromosome."


Ain't that the truth?!



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In reply to: NightStalker on Saturday 06/10/07 07:54am

Hear hear.


"Many genes cause the cell to make proteins of various kinds, and these are needed in the

correct amounts. Some genes function by instructing other genes to turn on and off at the

right moment, and these instructions need to be precise, accurate and sensitive. Having an

extra chromosome is like having a business with too many managers or a family with too

many parents or a car with two drivers or a country with two presidents..."


...or a monetary system with too many unscrupulous manipulators...

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  • 4 weeks later...

Well people, last night the US Government, in cahoots with the US Fed, has clearly demonstrated that they are about as far off from taking the hard measures to stave off a USD collapse as they are at achieving a manned mars mission by 2020.


With oil at just under $100pb, rising nearly $30 since the begining of the last quarter and the USD dropping like a proverbial brick, they have the hide to tell the world that US inflation rose by a mere .02%...LESS THAN 1% ANNUALIZED!...who the hell are they kidding...regardless of whether these figures contained food and energy.....THEY ARE A COMPLETE JOKE! http://www.sharescene.com/html/emoticons/puke.gif


The refusal to acknowledge that there is a problem enures that the USD is on a path to obliteration!


I am now convinced that by 2010 the world will be on the verge of hyperinflation. The markets in the mean time are gearing up for the blow-off that will make the Tulip bulb mania look benign.


Good Luck after 2009...we're all gonna fricken need it http://www.sharescene.com/html/emoticons/ph34r.gif

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