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bailej03

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Hey,

 

Interesting to see the US DOLLAR INDEX fall below 80 last night, first time I think this has happened... ever?

 

An early sign the market thinks the US is headed for recession?

 

Gold has to be going on in US DOLLAR terms, otherwise it is depreciating...

 

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=dmax

 

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I am commencing this thread to garner other peoples opinions on the prospect of a USD collapse within the next few years. Will it happen? or Will it not happen?

I believe that nothing is more central to the on-going stability of global ecomomies than a stable USD, however one cannot ignore the prospects of a possible collapse and as such, a total loss of confidence in the USD. What will be the end result?

 

Here is a hint:

 

"Since the credit market crisis unfolded in early August, the Bernanke Fed has pumped $292 billion of morphine (repos) into the banking system, the most since the September 11, 2001's terror attacks on the United States. Not all the morphine has been withdrawn however, and as a consequence, the growth rate of the M3 money supply expanded to 14% in August, and gold has jumped to $725 /oz."

 

 

Ben Bernanke has publicly stated his preference for inflation over deflation and he has in fact written papers on the subject, now he has laid to rest any doubt by showing his hand since the August stock market correction. It is also no coicidence that within a few months of Uncle Fred being appointed Fed Governor, that the price of Gold ran from just over $400 per oz to over $730 p/oz.

 

Whilst I personally believe that the slide in USD will continue for a little while yet, we will at some point find support, we are still at around 24 months from a total collapse. I have ascertained from my extensive research that the danger period will commence from mid 2009 and that the global economy will, by mid 2010 be in a full USD crisis.

 

This has severe implications for EVERYBODY. Until that time the markets will continue their rise and indeed the rise will accelerate, as will the rise in everything that is traded by currency of all denominations(except real estate).

 

The final implication aside from hyperinfaltion, of a total USD collapse will result in Gold soaring to over $5000 per oz. sometime after 2009.

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In reply to: woteva on Saturday 22/09/07 12:55am

A good podcast that is made every weekend in Canada and free on I Tunes is ' Financial Sense News Hour " actually it is about 4 hours made up of 4 parts each approx 1 hour.

It is hosted by Jim Puplava, totally unbiased and very worthwhile listening to. They have been predicting the current situation for some time and a 2010 to 2012 currency crisis. The future value of precious metals especially Silver looks likely to go much higher from todays levels.

 

I have listened to them for the last 18 months and subsequently built up a good holding of the ASX listed GOLD . See www.goldbullion.com.au.

 

I am also looking for a similar product for accumulating Silver.

 

 

 

 

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In reply to: cooma on Saturday 22/09/07 12:36pm

A collapsing is not as bad as everyone thinks, the countries that peg to to thw us dollar are the one that are going to feel the most pain through inflation. America will greatly benefit from a lower US dollar with the exports from farm machinery to steel, cars and mfg suddenly look more attractive to markets that where they where considered to expensive.

While imports look less attractive due to the lower US dollar. With pointers to a export led

boost to the economy, a lot of these factor aren't considered by pundits when making comment about the US situation

 

For Australia everyone complains about higher oil prices but even though its jumped to US 83 poo but in real term Oil for us hasn't gone up at all for 3 years when it was a 100 au back then with us 50 poo and fx rate was 50 cents so really why is petrol so dear. even gold with us dollar dropping in real terms it not going up. Its like its free floating against us dollar.

 

So really America will benefit the most from us dollar collapse middle east countries are already suffering being tied to dollar through inflation. Will a

lot of countries float there currency, if so it might be the undoing of the usa grip on the financial markets. In Asia japan will suffer most but china with Yuan pegged below us dollar will benefit even more

as therecrap look even more attractive to the world. So Australia will benefit to in the coming years l can see commodities being traded in euros as the USA becomes less dominant around the world.

 

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In reply to: tcisboss on Saturday 22/09/07 01:17pm

tcisboss: As you just correctly mentioned, CHINA is also linked to the US dollars and I very much doubt that they will be willing to pay for commodities in Euro. Moreover, the US will then still not be competitive in terms of exports versus the Chinese exports. But the American consumer will no longer be able to purchase all the stuff that is exported to the USA. Very disruptive situation for certain.

A collapsing US dollar will not be great news for the whole world, IMHO. But possibly climate change will kill us earlier....

wasa

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In reply to: cooma on Saturday 22/09/07 12:36pm

Thank you for the link cooma.

 

Re: silver - on a short to mid-term base you might like to try commodity warrants -

 

www.cwa.net.au (Commodity Warrants Australia).

 

My hesitation vis-a-vis silver that silver is also an industrial metal as well as precious; therefore the market for it isn't as clear cut as for oil and gold. (Of course, my opinion only!)

 

What do you base your bullishness on silver if I may ask?

 

Thanks

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