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I find this unbelievable


forrestgump
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In reply to: Marsupial on Thursday 16/08/07 08:34pm

Mars,

 

Oh gosh, where is my crystal ball??

 

The bulls are not gonna just roll over. A 30% retracement of this decline is probable IMHO. But if you happen to read my post today on the US Economy thread, you may understand why I am long term bearish on the US markets. The Aussie market is much stronger, but we still play follow the leader to a large degree.

 

Be cautious. Be nimble. The buy and hold days are probably gone for the time being.

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In reply to: Danville on Thursday 16/08/07 09:30pm

QUOTE
Don't mean to be cute here at all, but I don't see why this is so unbelievable. The xjo spent two months bouncing off 6400 and retreating. Resistance. When 6200 fell the trend line was broken. But our market has been so strong, that any bearish posts were viewed like the boy who cried wolf.

You'll find many, many posts here on SS the last few weeks and months with traders going to high cash positions as the risk of a decline seemed to increase.

Traders locked in profits, investors stops were hit, and the snowball began.

I think the reason that our market was hit harder than most is because of the highly leveraged CDS's which are legal in this country. When you are leveraged 97% and the stock goes down 10%, it all goes pearshaped in a very big hurry, as you lose not only your original investment, but multiples more. This can require you to liquidate several positions in order to cover losses on just one.

Add to this the automatic liquidation by companies such as CMC. They will automatically liquidate your entire position if it goes belly up, not just the amount needed to cover your losses.

And blaming shorters when the market goes down is like blaming investors when the market goes up. There are many, many ways to make or lose money in these markets. Some like the short side, and some prefer the long side.

The bulls have had an extrordinary run. But the bears have been lurking, and have finally come out of hibernation. We might have to learn to live with them for a while.

 

Worth repeating.

One of your best posts so far.

 

Welcome back, I hope you had a great holiday http://www.sharescene.com/html/emoticons/biggrin.gif

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I was pretty amazed too today, seeing the 300 point low, then i went out for an hour, and to much surprise, xjo has rebounded 150 pts.

 

I would have to agree with Dan about the highly leveraged nature of the market. no doubt many people would have received margin calls etc from holding cfds or leveraged accounts. I guess it all adds to the fun and games.

 

I think though that if you are an investor and not a trader, daily or weekly moves are the main thing, not nessecary the intraday moves (although they all affect us) it just depends on your timeframe i guess.

 

but it is just as easy to go on the short side these days as it is to go long PLUS markets fall faster than they go up.

 

read an article in the cash is king thread, apparently the explaination is that because funds could not hedge with futures, they had to sell physical stock.... who knows what the real reason is.

 

i think no matter if the market is manipulated or not, if we stick to the trading plan etc, then that is all that matters

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In reply to: Danville on Thursday 16/08/07 09:30pm

G'day,

 

Well, if what everyone says is true then I was slightly misled by Alan Kohler.

 

I do feel slightly miffed by your post Danville. You say :

 

QUOTE
...but I don't see why this is so unbelievable.

 

Your implication seems to be that I was saying that the movement in the market was unbelievable. If you read my post I was not saying that at all. I was saying that the actions of the ASX/SFE were unbelievable. As I say above, it seems that I was basing this on incorrect information. Regardless, I feel it necessary to point out that I don't find any genuine market movements "unbelievable". As I said (and implied) in my opening post, we rely on a market that operates within parameters that we know and (have the opportunity to) understand. I was certainly not blaming shorters for the situation. We all know that shorting exists and is legal and permitted. We operate in the market knowing this.

 

It seems that, in this case, the market movement was genuine and was not caused by the SFE shutdown as advised by Alan Kohler.

 

I guess that's the end of the story.

 

 

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In reply to: forrestgump on Friday 17/08/07 09:26am

Hi Forrest and others.

Given that the sfe issue was a known by others (me and I'd guess most punters didnt I might add ) the timing of it and the route on the physical was pretty odd given the circumstances.Perhaps the asx should have given more thought to it.

Kohler isnt a complete mug and would think his public statements have some credence.

 

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It must be true ... I read it in the newspaper ...

 

idiots ... they even printed the graph of the japanese market next to the story.

 

Pity they left out the break over Lunch and close at one price ... open at another.

 

Sadly the ASX or SFE cops it again. As someone who literally has traded more than a million round trades on the SFE ....

 

they were one of the first if not first to go electronic and back then were called idiots by some of the bigger open outcry exchanges. Within 18 months they were going electronic or loosing market share hand over fist.

 

SFE platform whilst not perfect ... and at times bloody annoying ... yesterday it didn't send US futures lower or the japanese or Korean stocks down.

 

Makes for good reading but .... utter crap.

 

Used to think the Austrlaian wasn't a bad paper till the front page announced it ... and front of the business page same thing.

 

Yes as a futures trader i am going to sit on the bid and take it in the whammo as Korea dips to 7% down and Japan to 3% yesterday .... today korea 3% more making it 10% in 2 days ... Japan ... yikes 5% .

 

Still the fun and games contiue .... post 4 pm ... after the cahs closed futures had a cow dropping 1.5% as US futures got spanked again .... and in the last 40 mins ... bounce ... US futures back over 1% ours 1.5% ..... japanese futures 1.5% ...

 

Oh and to cap the festivites off for the last hour ... Ozzie dropped another cent.

 

Pity they keep smacking our exporters so hard ... even oilers where the oil price has been steady and the currency sits 12% lower in 3 weeks ... yet the shares of most off 20-40% even fore big producers.

 

Its all good ..

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