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SYR - SYRAH RESOURCES LIMITED


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flower,

I'm not a believer in charts but fundamentally I just cannot see where we see 79c again. No doubt what SYR have IMO. A major flake graphite deposit and by year end we will see just how big. The graphite dips into the hills and it outcrops at 250m in some places. Once they get the drill bit into it, we will know how "deep" it goes. Any sort of reasonable depth with their grades and it's seriously a Tier 1 project. I've bought plenty in the 60's and 70's and also playing the other company with exposure, CSE. They own 11M SYR shares. Been buying them solidly between 8c and 10.5c. Crazy value IMO.

I'd love to see the Tanzanian assets of SYR put into CSE. Makes sense as SYR have their hands full with Balama. If they go down that route then we will see CSE really gain traction. Time will tell but the 22M crossing at 7.5c on Monday was very interesting.

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Hi Mel,

 

If you "know" the fundamental value of a company, and if the chart supports your Bullish assessment, don't let a random contrarian discourage you from following your Plan.

Without spending an inordinate amnount of time, probably duplicating your effort, I can't verify or refute your assessment of SYR's potential. What I can do is look at the chart and gauge what has happened so far. And that simply says -

  • Whatever happened and transpired in early January, has impressed "The Market" to the extent that people were willing to pay up to four times the price at which it traded before Jan 12th.
  • The Trading Halt in late February was initially greeted with more enthusiasm, but price consolidated for about six weeks on lower volumes.
  • A day before and after Easter saw another Trading Halt, which led to yet another breakout: this time breaking the confines of the consolidation range.
Basing my opinion solely on the chart, I see the balance of probability pointing to more upside. Lots of it. Possibly twice the 84c breakout level. At this stage, a return to 79c, while not completely impossible, seems highly unlikely; in fact, I would consider it a deal breaker. As a rule, the breakout level may be re-tested. This has happened on Feb 17, when 45c were tested, as well as during the 6-weeks consolidation, when it was the low 60's level.

 

This seems to be one exceptional setup - rare enough not to fit the patterns I routinely scan the Markets for. You could do me a great favour and alert me in future when you notice a company like SYR in the early stages of development. I would've loved to grab a handful in January :king:

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As a long time watcher of SYR (been watching it for years as part of the RCO, CSE, SYR stable, share common management etc), I finally took the plunge in a fairly heavy way once the Jacana acquisition was announced late last year. It's been an exciting ride so far and it would still seem that there is a long way to go. MD Paul Kehoe came out in yesterday's presentation to essentially say Balama may be the world's largest graphite deposit. The trenching grades are also exceptional and now that drilling is set to commence shortly there is likely to be a lot more positive news coming out in the near future.

 

In a macro sense, the graphite market seems to be really heating up. The performance of some of the Canadian graphite stocks of late is testament to this. If this continues over the medium to long term and Balama proves itself SYR look to be in a significant position to attract worldwide investor attention and the shareprice could really go anywhere from here. Too risky to try and trade this one, much happier to tuck the shares away and just let the market do it's thing over the next 12-24 months. As mentioned below CSE also offer good exposure to SYR through their 11m share holding.

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You may well be right, and me wrong, congratulations for spotting the now obvious brilliant Fundamentals of this story in the early stages, which only proves one of my theories of Fundamentals as opposed to Technicals, but we better not go down that path.

 

Managed to do this myself on the odd occasion, very satisfying and highly financially rewarding, congrats again--However:

 

Depending on where an entry was made, profits of massive proportions are there right now for the TAKING--question is how many will take those profits--what does the market and the SYR chart tell us?

 

The market tells us that all is getting better gradually in the power house of the USA, I question that--the current data is being "spun" unmercifully--question: If the whole market collapsed under the weight of another implosion like Greece surely taking SYR profits has to be prudent at the very least?

 

The chart tells me that I can see two tell tale signals, one WAS volume at the bottom in November and February, second IS volume at the top.

If it were me and I was holding profits of this order I would be taking the majority of those profits right now in SYR--just in case.

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You're mixing metaphors again, flower

 

If SYR is such a great prospect, fundamentally, why bring in speculation about what might happen globally in USA or Europe?

If we get hit by an asteroid or some radical fundamentalist blows up the planet, it doesn't matter whether Melua holds SYR or cash.

 

So, we have established SYR as a "should've bought". The only question now is what to do with it.

What was the plan when we bought it? The usual approach is

  1. set a target expectation,
  2. set a trailing stop,
  3. update both as daily data increase our knowledge.
If $1 holds and buying continues, why would you sell and forego the next 60c of profit?

If it fails, the question is where to place the stop loss. The chart below, based on volatility and risk acceptance, suggests 86c. If that fails and the price is pushed into the gap, chances are for the gap to be closed and a buy-back opportunity to present itself at a lower level. However, that can only be Plan B because at the current situation, the gap must be seen as a continuation or break-away gap, which can - and often does - remain open for a long time.

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why bring in speculation about what might happen globally in USA or Europe?

 

arty, are you seriously telling me that say you had put $10k into SYR early January 2012 at 20c, given todays price is $1 it at the very least it is not just a prudent move to take some of that profit off the table?

 

Indeed what happens if say tonight we have a precipitous fall in the US market and some of those enjoying those paper profits at lunch time today havent taken steps to protect those profits and simply dont have a look at the international news early Monday before our market opens, talk about greed and fear, but not taking some of those paper profits today smacks of greed in my book.

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