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Graphite Outlook 2019: Will Supply Increase?

Priscila Barrera - December 30th, 2018

 

Graphite is an essential metal used in electric vehicle (EV) batteries, and as sales of EVs grow, market watchers believe demand for the metal will surge.

 

Despite discussions surrounding changes in battery chemistry, many experts think graphite will remain a key element in EV batteries for at least the next decade. Both synthetic graphite and natural graphite, in the form of the intermediate product spherical graphite, are used in the anodes of lithium-ion batteries.

 

With the start of 2019 just around the corner, many investors are wondering what will happen to graphite next year. Here the Investing News Network looks at the key trends in the graphite market in 2018, and what the graphite outlook is for 2019.

 

Graphite trends 2018: The year in review

In 2018, demand for graphite continued to grow strongly, underpinned by the boom in EVs, especially in the Chinese market, according to Suzanne Shaw, senior analyst at Roskill.

 

ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Â¦ÃƒƒÂ¢Ãƒ¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…âہ“The natural graphite market is rushing to meet this demand and supply is increasing from Africa, led by the ramp up of production at Syrah ResourcesÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ (ASX:SYR) Balama mine in Mozambique, which started producing in late 2017, and China, where existing producers are increasing production. But the industry is still in a state of overcapacity,ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚ Shaw said.

 

As in many other industries, a main theme for graphite has been temporary capacity shutdowns in China, the result of successive rounds of environmental inspections. These are ongoing, with the latest major round of closures happening in August 2017, Shaw said.

 

Benchmark Mineral Intelligence Analyst Albert Li explained that even though China has resources, more are needed outside of the country.

 

ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Â¦ÃƒƒÂ¢Ãƒ¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…âہ“Environmental policies are still having an impact on prices and supply,ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚ he said.

 

According to the London-based firm, China has more dominance over the anode supply chain than any other area of the lithium-ion battery industry. That is creating mounting concerns over the shape of global supply.

 

ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Â¦ÃƒƒÂ¢Ãƒ¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…âہ“For the first time in a generation we have begun to see China import significant quantities of natural graphite feedstock,ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚ as per Benchmark Mineral Intelligence.

 

Looking over to supply, over the past 12 months the market has seen a ramp up in production at four important new flake graphite mines: Syrah Resources and AMG in Mozambique, Bass Metals (ASX:BSM) in Madagascar and Imerys Graphite and Carbon in Namibia.

 

RoskillÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢s Shaw said that in terms of prices, along with a more rapid recovery than expected in Chinese supply, prices were weaker than anticipated in the second half of the year, and the firm has now revised its price forecasts to be weaker into 2019.

 

ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Â¦ÃƒƒÂ¢Ãƒ¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…âہ“Prices for Chinese battery-grade flake graphite increased strongly in late 2017 and early 2018 as a result, but they saw some downward readjustment in the second half of the year, despite some more closures in May 2018, as supply in Africa began to ramp up, bringing some security to the market,ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚ Shaw said.

 

Looking over to the synthetic graphite space, the market has seen ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Â¦ÃƒƒÂ¢Ãƒ¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…âہ“rapidly increasing demand from the electrodes sector as China shifts its steel production to electric arc furnace methods (and as demand grows from batteries),ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚ according to RoskillÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢s Shaw.

 

ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Â¦ÃƒƒÂ¢Ãƒ¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…âہ“There was a huge electrode shortage and a nine-fold increase in electrode prices through 2017. While there has been some downward movement, prices in 2018 remain very high,ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚ Shaw added.

 

Graphite outlook 2019: All eyes on supply

Looking ahead to next year, Shaw said demand from batteries will not let up and will continue to drive both natural and synthetic graphite.

 

ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Â¦ÃƒƒÂ¢Ãƒ¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…âہ“Supply/demand will be more than adequate in 2019, but it depends on how much Syrah (and maybe others) put into the market,ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚ she said.

 

For Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, the demand outlook for the graphite market is also positive, given growing consumption from industrial markets and the emergence of value-added applications.

 

As demand for electric cars continues to increase, the London-based firm forecasts that total graphite demand could reach 1.2 million tonnes by 2025, although there are some substitution risks that could impact this forecast as silicon, solid state and manufacturing advance.

 

ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Â¦ÃƒƒÂ¢Ãƒ¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…âہ“Graphite will be the core raw material for lithium-ion battery anodes for at least the next five years, but new technologies will begin to gain traction,ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚ Benchmark said.

 

To meet this growing the demand, the firm believes new natural and synthetic graphite capacity is required.

 

Meanwhile, Roskill forecasts prices will continue falling in 2019 as supply in both China and the rest of world increases further, ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Â¦ÃƒƒÂ¢Ãƒ¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…âہ“but will rise again in later years as forecasts for battery growth are so rapid, growing demand will soon bring the market into tightness,ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚ Shaw said.

 

As the new year begins, investors should keep an eye on China, which is always the wild card.

 

ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Â¦ÃƒƒÂ¢Ãƒ¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…âہ“Unpredictable areas of the industry will always concern China, especially with the environmental overhauls currently underway. The timing and intensity of plant closures is hard to predict as China continues to strengthen its pollution targets,ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚ Shaw said.

 

She added that into the new year, the focus is on new supply.

 

ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Â¦ÃƒƒÂ¢Ãƒ¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…âہ“How much more supply will Syrah bring on? It does not appear to have renewed its major deal with BTR in China ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã‚¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚ the worldÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢s largest anode material producer ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã‚¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚ but it has penned three alternative supply deals with other Chinese companies since November,ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚ Shaw said.

Other catalysts to keep in mind are whether other companies will come online or not and if new Chinese production could also come into the equation.

 

ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Â¦ÃƒƒÂ¢Ãƒ¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…âہ“There are a large number of flake deposits under development, many of which have seen a definitive feasibility study and/or have pilot plants in place ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã‚¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚ itÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢s now a race to achieve financing,ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚ Shaw said.

 

Speaking about new Chinese supply, the expert said the Asian country is looking increasingly at foreign (mainly African) resources and imported major amounts of raw material graphite for the first time in 2018.

 

Another factor to watch out for is any new Chinese investment and offtake agreements.

 

ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Â¦ÃƒƒÂ¢Ãƒ¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…âہ“[it] would be interesting to see how committed China is to building a foreign supply chain over its existing domestic industry,ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚ Shaw said.

 

On the synthetic side, ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Â¦ÃƒƒÂ¢Ãƒ¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…âہ“look at how China is encouraging the shift to electric arc furnace (EAF), new taxes on basic oxygen furnaces being introduced and possible help for increased EAF capacity,ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚ Shaw added.

 

https://investingnews.com/daily/resource-in...aphite-outlook/

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This group is continuing their opposition

 

Save Concordia Parish

7 hrs ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒÂ¢Ãƒ¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡ÃƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚·

Syrah is reporting to shareholders that they are now processing spherical graphite at their Vidalia plant. This means that despite repeated requests from citizens for a public hearing, and despite three members of the Vidalia Board of Aldermen asking the mayor to add this to the agenda, or provide a public forum, the mayor made the unilateral decision to accept SyrahÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢s industrial waste into our publicly owned wastewater treatment facility. People of Vidalia, you should be enraged. Your mayor disregarded your concerns as if they mean nothing. This group will continue to move forward with the next phase of fighting this careless, unilateral decision by the mayor.

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Syrah Resources (ASX:SYR) has achieved the first successful production of unpurified spherical graphite at its Battery Anode Material (BAM) facility in Louisiana.

 

No mention was made of quantity produced. I wonder if if's sufficient to satisfy the conditional clause below - bolded/underlined by me - regarding "adequate commercial production rates of the Product"

 

Marubeni will purchase a total of 50,000 tonnes of Product per annum and will market the Product to its

customers, which consists of the largest battery and anode producers in the Territory. MarubeniÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢s

obligation to purchase commences after Syrah issues a notice that it has adequate commercial

production rates of the Product so as it can supply Marubeni, provided that such notice must be given

by 31 December 2019. Product prices will be negotiated on a quarterly basis between the parties with

reference to the market prices prevailing in the Territory.

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The Save Concordia Parish group are assuming SYR are already discharging waste water into their sewer, but the SYR announcement covered the milling/shaping stage in the manufacturing of SPG. The purification process, which produces the waste water, is not due to commence until Q1 2019.

 

Pity the company and Vidalia officials are not communicating with this group what the various process are - it would save a lot of anxiety

 

Installation of purification equipment for batch processing of purified spherical graphite continuing as per plan for purified spherical graphite in Q1 2019
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ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Â¦ÃƒƒÂ¢Ãƒ¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…âہ“How much more supply will Syrah bring on? It does not appear to have renewed its major deal with BTR in China ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã‚¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚ the worldÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢s largest anode material producer ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã‚¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚ but it has penned three alternative supply deals with other Chinese companies since November,ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚ Shaw said.

 

If correct, wonder why this 1 year contract was not renewed The BTR agreement/MOU/connection appeared to be highly regarded at the time. Does that mean the "potential supply chain cooperation" is also no longer being pursued?

 

The Sales Agreement

Syrah Resources has signed an agreement to sell graphite from the Balama operation in Mozambique to Chinese battery anode manufacturer Shenzhen BTR New Energy MaterialsÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ (BTR) subsidiary Jixi BTR Graphite Industrial.

 

Under the agreement, Syrah will offer 30,000t of graphite in the first year of production.

 

Meanwhile, Syrah and BTR will work towards the implementation of other aspects of the previously signed memorandum of agreement (MoU), including potential supply chain cooperation.

 

Syrah Resources managing director and CEO Shaun Verner said: "The relationship with BTR will see SyrahÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢s high-quality graphite placed into the lithium-ion battery market.

 

"In confirming this binding sales agreement with the worldÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢s largest battery anode manufacturer, Syrah will enter the leading geographic market for natural graphite with confidence and capitalise on the significant forecast growth in electric vehicle and energy storage markets.

 

"With battery development receiving strong policy support from governments across the world and increasing consumer demand, SyrahÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢s Balama operation will form a baseload of high-quality natural graphite supply for major battery anode manufacturers globally."

 

BTR is engaged in technology development of battery anode materials for lithium-ion batteries.

 

 

The MOU

SYRAH SIGNS MOU WITH BTR NEW ENERGY MATERIALS INC.

________________________________________________________________________________

_________

Syrah Resources Limited (Syrah) is pleased to announce, it has signed a non-binding Memorandum of

Understanding (MOU) with BTR New Energy Materials Inc. (BTR), in China, regarding sales and supply chain

cooperation. Syrah and BTR have commenced commercial discussions on these matters and will update

the market with further developments.

 

BTR New Energy Materials is the worldÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢s largest manufacturer of Battery Anode Materials for lithium ion

batteries. Based in Shenzhen, BTR is also a world leader in technology development and production of

Battery Anode Materials supplying both the Chinese domestic and export markets.

 

Syrah's Managing Director & CEO, Shaun Verner, said "We are very excited about the opportunity to

develop sales and supply options with BTR, and we look forward to continuing the constructive discussions

that have been undertaken to date.ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚ÂÂ

 

In view of this development, we have decided to defer our scheduled Sales and Marketing Investor

Update on 4 April 2017 for a short period, in order to focus attention on advancing these discussions. At a

minimum we will provide an update on the progress of this and other sales and marketing initiatives in

conjunction with the release of the March 2017 Quarterly update at the end of April 2017.

 

Large late after market close transaction

2,584 4:26:01 pm 158 2,614,056 $4,130,208 Crossed,Special Crossing >= T3 < T2
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SYR gets a mention in the article below

 

Good to see commercial production has now been declared - "All revenues and operating costs will be reported to the Income Statement with effect from 1 January 2019" Unfortunately that means investors are still in the dark re revenues/profit (if any) until the end of April when 1Q2019 Quarterly should contain that info.

 

Good to see UBS closed most of it's shorts as at 10 January - although it's possible they may have borrowed more stock in the last couple of days since 10th. Total short positions as at 8th January 2019 = 16.95%

 

extract from The Bull's - 2018 ASX 200 Winners and Losers - http://www.thebull.com.au/premium/a/79480-...and-losers.html

 

A newcomer to share market investing would look at this list and wonder how four of the five stocks with the highest growth forecasts performed so poorly in 2018. Whatâââ€Å¡Ãƒ‚¬ÃƒÂ¢Ãƒ¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã‚¾ÃƒÆ’‚¢s more, even a casual follower of business news has read of the coming emergence of Electric Vehicles (EVs). Hardly a person on the planet is unfamiliar with the lithium-ion battery that powers the electronic toys of today and the vehicles of tomorrow.

 

Three of those four worst performers are in the business of mining the metals needed to produce those li-ion batteries. Those three companies âââ€Å¡Ãƒ‚¬ÃƒÂ¢Ãƒ¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…âہ“ Pilbara Minerals (PLS), Orocobre Limited (ORE), and Syrah Resources (SYR) along with satellite communications provider Speedcast International (SDA) are all in the ASX Top 30 Short List.

 

In the eyes of many retail investors, the short-sellers, or shorts, are the smartest people in the room since with the unlimited risks they face due diligence is a premium without which they cannot do.

 

The essence of short selling is borrowing shares at a given price and profiting when the price drops and the seller buys the shares at the lower price and pockets the difference. When the price goes the opposite way the losses keep mounting, theoretically to infinity, until the shorts panic and buy to cover. That means, in theory at least, the shorts need to be virtually certain a given stock is due for a downtrend.

 

So why would they bet against EVs and their battery packs? Retail investors who have been in the game for awhile know how quickly a red-hot sector can freeze over. In the fire-up stage investors rush in to buy and producers rush in to produce more of whatever has caught fire, thus inadvertently lowering the price. Orocobre and Pilbara are in the lithium business while Syrah is a graphite producer. Initially the shorts appear to have latched on to the falling price of both graphite and lithium as the perception crept into the market that supply was outstripping demand. In addition, some experts were questioning the extremely optimistic forecasts for EV demand in the next decades.

 

Now there is a new concern; one that was always there and has now bubbled to the surface. The truth is the lithium-ion battery may not be the technology of tomorrow as it has serious drawbacks. Right now, cobalt, graphite, nickel, and manganese are in the mix but research efforts for alternatives abound. The industry was shocked in mid-2018 when Teslaâââ€Å¡Ãƒ‚¬ÃƒÂ¢Ãƒ¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã‚¾ÃƒÆ’‚¢s CEO Elon Musk made the claim that cobalt, once the must have metal, would be less evident in Tesla batteries in favor of increased nickel content, a cheaper metal.

 

That could have served as a reminder of the potential of other minerals falling out of the mix in the future. The price of both lithium and graphite has been volatile over the past several years, but both are improving.

 

While the price of both metals fell due to the oversupply issue, lithium recovered more quickly than graphite. Now the concern for graphite has shifted to shortage concerns with the price gradually improving in 2017. The following graph is from Canadian producer Northern Graphite.

 

All three of these companies are on the cusp of major production capability and at the very least deserve a spot on any investorâââ€Å¡Ãƒ‚¬ÃƒÂ¢Ãƒ¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã‚¾ÃƒÆ’‚¢s watchlist.

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Credit Suisse retain their previous rating and target price (naturally - being house broker one would not expect anything else)

 

Syrah Resources Ltd (ASX: SYR)

 

Analysts at Credit Suisse have retained their outperform rating and $5.50 price target on this graphite producerâââ€Å¡Ãƒ‚¬ÃƒÂ¢Ãƒ¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã‚¾ÃƒÆ’‚¢s shares following its recent production update. According to the note, the broker was pleased with the update and believes it should ease investor concerns over the performance of its Balama operation. So much so, Credit Suisse feels thereâââ€Å¡Ãƒ‚¬ÃƒÂ¢Ãƒ¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã‚¾ÃƒÆ’‚¢s a chance that its shares could re-rate higher if the company can maintain its strong production performance. While I do agree with Credit Suisse that this could be the case, Iâââ€Å¡Ãƒ‚¬ÃƒÂ¢Ãƒ¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒâ€¦Ã‚¾ÃƒÆ’‚¢m holding out for its half year results to see what price the company has commanded for its graphite.

https://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/top-broke...-235758648.html

 

SP back over $2.00 - currently $2.04/share

Yesterday's total trade volume was 2.7mil, - 925k was shorted. Always seems to happen with this share - you think UBS have closed their short positions (it's safe to get back in), the SP goes up and so do shorts positions. Does not appear they and/or others are finished just yet - just IMHO. Still a way to go before the market knows what % of their production is being sold and at what price. At the moment production is the only figure being quoted, which is pleasing but not the main criteria.

 

Tue 15th Jan, 2019 925,934 343,603,692 0.26% 2,782,361 33.28%

https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=SYR

 

"Error Upload failed. Please ask the administrator to ensure the uploads directory is writeable" - uploading charts still a problem

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Right on cue :devilsmiley:

 

Notice of change of interests of substantial holder

UBS Group AG and its related bodies corporate

14-Jan-19 UBS AG, Australia Branch Stock received N/A 4,588,914 Ordinary

 

Meanwhile over on HC much joyous talk the last couple of days about burning shorts and this - "UBS Group now up to 21,729,502, or over 6%".- please read the fine print beyond the 1st page fellas - the only reason UBS is holding over 6% is because they've borrowed 4.5 odd million shares with a view to shorting. When will HC-ites learn :sadsmiley02:

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Looks like someone is not confident of a glowing Quarterly Report? QR due in a couple of days. Meanwhile on HC they're expecting many positives in the QR, including being cash flow positive.

 

UBS looks to have borrowed 7.2 mil shares

 

24-Jan-19 UBS AG, Australia Branch Stock received N/A 7,291,199 Ordinary

 

https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=SYR

Total short positions as at 22nd January 2019 = 16.59%

 

SP currently up 1.15% @ $2.02

post-330173-1548735025_thumb.png

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What we've all been waiting for Blacksheep. :biggrin:

 

Costs presented FOB Nacala but pricing in CIF. Shipping costs range from US$35 - $110 in the DFS (which may have changed in the last 4 years?).

 

Looks like there's still some to do before it's cashflow positive.

post-389756-1548797735_thumb.jpg

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