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SYR gets a mention.

 

The Graphene Promise - Disruptor or Disrupted

By Bob Kohut | 15.10.2018

 

WhatÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢s the ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Â¦ÃƒƒÂ¢Ãƒ¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…âہ“next big thingÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚ to hit the market? This question has tantalized rabid investors in search of the big payoff since forever.

 

Next big thing candidates typically are involved in business operations that have the potential to make a significant impact on the way things get done in the world. Many are technology firms. As far back as 2012 an article appearing on the website of Canadian metals dealer Kitco heralded graphite as the ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Â¦ÃƒƒÂ¢Ãƒ¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…âہ“new black gold.ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚ Active investors at that time know Kitco was not alone in touting graphite, in large part for its application potential in yet another big thing, the coming boom in Electric Vehicles (EVs).

 

Many investors focused on the robust demand projections for graphite. The following graph presents more recent data.

 

Yet that optimistic picture has not saved the fortunes of AustraliaÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢s largest graphite producer, Syrah Resources (SYR) from a volatile share price and third place on the ASX Top Thirty Short List.

 

As is typical of suddenly ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Â¦ÃƒƒÂ¢Ãƒ¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…âہ“hotÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚ commodities like graphite, producers rush in to capitalise on rising demand, only to see commodity prices drop due to oversupply concerns. Demand is only half of the equation with which investors need to be concerned.

 

read more - http://www.thebull.com.au/premium/a/77664-...-disrupted.html

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Something to keep an eye on - extract from Zitamar News coverage of the elections

extract from

Still waiting for democracy

Zitamar Weekly, 15 October 2018

 

RenamoÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢s interim leader Ossufo Momade will be under strong pressure from his own side not to move ahead with the process of demilitarisation, disarmament, and reintegration, which is due to get underway in the coming weeks. The current peace process is hanging by a thread, and how these dodgy electoral results are dealt with will have repercussions far beyond the disputed municipalities themselves.

 

https://zitamar.substack.com/p/still-waiting-for-democracy

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UBS returns borrowed stock - ceases to be a substantial holder, for the time being at least. Shortman, however, shows two more notable short sales alerts for the 11 & 12 October. Total short positions @ 9 October 2018 = 16.09%

Fri 12th Oct, 2018 1,769,963 339,586,682 0.52% 4,436,354 39.90%

Thu 11th Oct, 2018 2,524,230 339,586,682 0.74% 4,954,075 50.95%

Wed 10th Oct, 20181,368,141 339,586,682 0.40% 3,189,899 42.89%

Tue 9th Oct, 2018 2,193,941 339,586,682 0.64% 2,361,470 92.91%

Mon 8th Oct, 2018 2,415,032 339,586,682 0.71% 2,924,904 82.57%

Fri 5th Oct, 2018 1,874,442 339,586,682 0.55% 2,251,841 83.24%

Thu 4th Oct, 2018 1,911,508 339,586,682 0.56% 3,612,039 52.92%

https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=SYR

 

Interesting that UBS acted on behalf of SYR, along side Credit Suisse, in the most recent cap raise @ $2.23 and their shorts help drive the SP down.

 

Good to see some of the Directors participating in the SPP

 

Good news on the elections/peace process front from Zitamar News -

Tom Bowker @TomBowk

Oct 14

Renamo has not pulled out of the peace process. Their press conference confirmed they will challenge the Moatize result, among others including Matola. But they say they are committed to democracy, to harmony among Mozambicans, and to following legal procedure

 

Meanwhile latest from this group - Save Concordia Parish

3 hrs ÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒÂ¢Ãƒ¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡ÃƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚·

Citizens of the Miss-Lou, members of Save Concordia Parish, Save Manchac Coalition, Louisiana Environmental Action Network, along with General Russell HonorÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâ€Â ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚¬Ãƒ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¾Ã‚¢ÃƒÆ’ƒÆ’â€Å¡Ãƒƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¨ with Green Army, met with Louisiana Department of Environmental Quality this morning to discuss the city of VidaliaÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢s intention to accept unregulated industrial waste into the publicly owned wastewater treatment facility. LDEQ is 100% engaged in this situation, and had great advice for our group. Stay tuned.

https://www.facebook.com/saveconcordiaparish/

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DRA providing Vidalia $200,000 for Syrah

 

DRA will provide $200,000 to the Town of Vidalia for a new manufacturing business, Syrah Technologies, which will locate its first facility in the United States in the Concordia Parish town.

 

DRA funds will be used to extend natural gas and broadband connectivity lines to serve the 25-acre site at the Vidalia Industrial Park & Port Complex. The manufacturer will produce spherical graphite used in lithium batteries in electric vehicles. About five new jobs will be created along with training for 20 workers, according to DRA.

 

SyrahÃÆâ€â„¢ÃƒÆ’ƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¡Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¬ÃƒÆ’¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢Ã¢â€š¬Ã…¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚¬ÃƒÆ’…¾Ãƒâہ¡ÃƒÆ’‚¢s total investment will be $20.3 million.

http://www.hannapub.com/concordiasentinel/...2aeb3a667b.html

 

The SP has certainly been savaged of late - closed the week @ $1.39. One would expect, given the larger than normal trading volumes, there may be some change in substantial holding notices forthcoming. The recent operational issues at Balama, followed by the global market woes, have certainly had an impact.

 

Are fund managers/insto's getting out of certain stocks in the current climate, including perhaps SYR?

 

Posted this a few years back on institutional ownership - might be relevant to what is happening here currently.

 

"When the Dependability Becomes Instability

Of course, you can have too much of a good thing. O'Neil is careful to point out that while institutional sponsorship is attractive, a lot of institutional ownership can be a sign of danger. If something goes wrong with a company and all the institutions holding it sell en masse, the stock's valuation can tank - regardless of fundamentals

 

Think of a stock as a swimming pool. The water level is analogous to the stock price, and elephants represent institutional investors. If the elephants suddenly start stepping into the pool (buy the stock), the water level (the price of the stock) will rise very quickly. However, if the elephants get spooked and leap out of that pool (or sell the stock), then the water level (price of the stock) will fall rapidly.

Remember, institutions are not only investors but also traders. In principle, they will put money into stocks only after lots of fundamental analysis, identifying where the stock price should be and compare that to where it is. In practice, however, they often forego fundamental analysis for the signals emitted by technical indicators. Because their main worry is whether the stock price is going up or down, institutions will often concentrate on whether the price direction has any momentum."

 

A stock with a lot of institutional support may be close to the peak of its valuation, or full of elephants. When every mutual and pension fund in the land owns a chunk of a particular stock, it may have nowhere to go but down. Look at the meltdown of technology stocks in 2000 and 2001. Companies like Cisco, Intel, Amazon and others had an unprecedented amount of institutional sponsorship, but as the subsequent collapse of their share price demonstrated, they also had unattractive fundamentals.

......................................

"The Bottom Line

 

Although logic and statistics show that institutional sponsorship is a good indicator of a good company, investors should be aware that institutional investing is not always driven by quality fundamentals. Before you depend on the assumption that smart money is the leader in judging fundamentals, make sure you determine whether the institutions are investing for the same reason you are.

 

Read more: Institutional Investors And Fundamentals: What's The Link?http://www.investopedia.com/articles/fundamental/03/101503.asp#ixzz3n6l7aTg3

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Plenty of good information on SYR by you Blacksheep. Holders would be hoping that large bearish Monthly candle bounces before

the month is out.

CSE is worth looking at if you like some risk. Lightly traded, but at .10 it would be worth drip feeding some small buy orders,

and try and accumulate a few , hoping for a SYR recovery. Big gap between bid and ask, but some have been selling at 10c.

SYR Monthly.

 

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Thanks cooderman.

 

With regard to CSE, agree looks cheap ATM but companies like CSE, who do nothing other than hold shares in other companies, aren't really valued highly by the market - eg ASX DGR has a substantial s/holding in several companies - most doing well, one in particular SolGold has both BHP and NCM on board with substantial s/holding. Again, not a lot of liquidity in DGR.

 

CSE owns 12.047 million shares in SYR, which is a holding of around 4.05%

 

CSE took up 100% of its retail entitlement - 1,047619 new shares @ $3.38/share in October last year. They took up a loan of $3,550,000 to pay for those shares. At that time the directors said it was in the Company's best interest to increase their investment in SYR. Did CSE participate in the most recent CR @ $2.23 - over $1.00 cheaper than previous CR? I haven't seen a revised ann to suggest they did - did they consider it prudent not to?.

 

Let's have a look at how CSE's investment in SYR has gone over recent years

 

Year/Value

2016 - $65,670,030

2017 - $30,470,014

2018 - $34,817,633

 

At Friday's close SYR's SP was $1.395 x 12.047 mil = $16,805,565 - CSE's paper loss on their SYR shareholding is $18-odd million since 30 June 2018 alone. When you compare to 2016 it's a darn sight more. CSE would have had a big tax problem had they sold/reduced their holding in previous years - maybe not such an issue now - could they be selling a few - they have to pay back that loan next year (if I recall correctly)? Maybe CSE are not too concerned and are in for the long haul.

 

On buying CSE shares - Harry Hatch seems to snaffle up any that are on offer :biggrin: Very illiquid stock.

 

At one stage I thought, particularly with Nic Bolton & Co buying into CSE, someone would try and get a cheap entry/controlling interest of SYR via the back door of those shares held by CSE. Not so sure that will happen now. The directors of CSE are all connected to former SYR management. Maybe Tolga wants his baby back

 

CSE's fortunes are tied very much to the SP of SYR - SYR bounces no doubt so too will CSE

 

Cheers and all just IMHO

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SYR chart often looks like it's bottomed only to change course again the next day - wise to not engage in FOMO on any rallies IMHO.

 

Update on the replacement primary classifier and confidence of being on track to return to full production obviously doing the trick today. SP up 8.96% @ $1.52

 

Short positions @ 23 October 2018 = 15.51%

https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=SYR

 

 

 

 

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UBS change in substantial holding notice, increasing their holding from 17.5mil to 21.5 mil, shows a number of buys/sells - as well as stock borrowed + returned. The last entry might suggest they are still shorting - just when the SP was heading in positive territory. Currently $1.76/share.

 

30-Oct-18 UBS AG, Australia Branch Stock received N/A 2,000,000 Ordinary

 

Short positions @ 26th October, 2018 = 15.13%

https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=SYR

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