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US Subprime mortgage market


JohnHoward

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In reply to: JohnHoward on Thursday 02/08/07 05:49pm

Well Johnny Gold is real currency - and people have forgotten that!

 

Many have been preaching for years a bull gold market is due and gold is heading for $1000 oz US. Personally, I like alot of people have brushed it aside for an array of reasons. But now after many years - IMO we are due and I have started taking notice of gold/gold stocks again. I think the gold bull market is about to resurrect as its trended against the way it should have been going the last few years. It wont be viscious instantly but will gain alot of traction once the momentum is identified http://www.sharescene.com/html/emoticons/smile.gif

 

Will be interesting to read some hard fact based US housing data aswell over the next few months. What I was reading 12 months ago wasnt positive, 6 months ago the same and 3 months ago it was worse! LOL

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In reply to: Sav on Thursday 02/08/07 06:02pm

Yes Sav, some hard fact housing data, not only from the US, but here as well will be most interesting.

 

In my opinion gold bullion would be a better bet than gold stocks, I have a feeling that stocks may face "exposurure via hedgeing" to the subprime.

 

Interesting times the next few months methinks. Where we put our $$$ may decide how financially secure we are in twenty years time. ( I doubt if I will be alive then, but I still have kids).

 

The other factor that should be explored is the world political makeup. If the US continues to slide, then the $US dollar benchmark will go, along with the US being "king of the world" so to speak. Which political steps in, if any? The implications of what is unfolding at the moment extend, in my opinion, into areas we haven't even contemplated

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In reply to: JohnHoward on Thursday 02/08/07 06:19pm

Thats true John, I dont think global politics have taken into consideration the impact of the crumbling US yet! "king of the world" - not for long - and they have a massive task ahead of them to keep their heads above water. You can only tread water for so long and in the end, either someone comes and saves you, or you drown.

 

Very concerning for us all! Being the Prime Miinister im hoping youve thought about a plan of action Johnny. http://www.sharescene.com/html/emoticons/tongue.gif

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In reply to: albion on Thursday 02/08/07 07:06am

Hi Albion,

Just did a quick google search and there is a report from Denmark in March 2007 warining on the impending US subprime crisis at

 

danskeanalyse.danskebank.dk/link/subprime30032007/$file/subprime.pdf

 

They state that subprime forms 13.7% of the total US mortgage market.

 

The US subprime mortgage market services households with a low credit quality (see box below). This section of the mortgage market has been growing in recent years, with market share increasing from 4% at the beginning of 2003 to 13.7% in Q4 2006.

 

Cheers

 

Ibis

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In reply to: Monteverdi on Thursday 02/08/07 09:56pm

Some great links Monteverdi and ibisibis123. Thanks http://www.sharescene.com/html/emoticons/smile.gif

 

Well yup, the economy runs in cycles but it really seems as if things in this bull market went just that little bit too far with borrowing! Then again thats probably the demise of most bull markets however in the last bottom im sure there wasnt this much "free credit" floating around.

 

Im still concerned about the yen carry unwinding - I know, im probably sounding like a broken record to some and with Sub-prime mortgage still to filter through theres alot of hurdles to jump. . . .

 

 

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an bit from a news wires piece this a.m. :

 

"The big chill gripping global credit markets has caused 46 leveraged financing deals to be pulled since June 22, representing more than $60 billion in funding that companies had planned for mergers and acquisitions.

 

The number of deals pulled last year: zero."

 

And this : "In boom-year 2006, banks sold some $4 trillion of loans and more than $837 billion of bonds from high-grade and speculative-grade companies globally."

 

M&A fervour has at times signalled the top of a market.This will put up the shutters on much of the private equity deals driving it.

And likely to continue to knock the froth of the market.

A good thing imho to get some sense into lending practices, take some of the bull out of the mkt but not kill it.

 

 

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Our market up slightly. I have been watching SUN. It is steadly going backwards, whereas the other banks today made gains. I thought of the insurer arm, but that doesn't gell as QBE and IAG are not down the same %. Unfortunately I own SUN via my SMSF, so will watch closely, could be they have exposurer to the US subprime via their insurance arm.

 

I am putting Wall St last night and the ASX today down to the proverbial dead cat.

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